Donald Trump has been elected as the 47th President of the United States. It must not be too surprising, however, as the policies adopted by the Democrats in the last four years haven’t served the US well diplomatically, militarily and economically. Today, the US finds itself relatively weaker than how Trump left it in 2020.

On the foreign policy front, the Trump administration will continue to face three immediate challenges. The raging conflict in the Middle East involving Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran, and Israel as well as the Russia-Ukraine war and the perceived increase in global influence of China.

American presidents have historically complied with Israeli demands. The Israeli lobby, as highlighted by Prof Mearsheimer in his book “The Israeli Lobby & The US Foreign Policy,” exerts unparalleled influence over the American policy circles. This circle includes the branches of the government, civil society, think tanks, academia, and the military industrial complex. The American deep state is well funded and taken care of by the Israeli lobby.

Structural factors aside, President-elect Trump’s temperament and his term as president from 2016-20 show he has been an ardent supporter of the Israeli cause, arguably more than any other president in modern US history. His endorsement of Jerusalem as Israeli capital, his support for the peace deal between a few Arab nations and Israel, which provided Israel with much-needed diplomatic space and support, and his approval of direct military actions against Israel’s adversaries in the Middle East region — particularly the assassination of Qasem Suleimani in January 2020. These are some of the instances one must consider before putting forth optimistic estimations about peace prevailing in the Middle East region.

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Netanyahu, sensing an imminent Trump victory, found it convenient to dismiss his defense minister Yoav Gallant just one day before the results of the US elections. This indicates Israeli optimism towards a shift in American policies in the coming weeks and months. It must be noted that Gallant was less hawkish than most of the Israeli war cabinet members and harbored serious reservations against Netanyahu on his postwar strategy.

Another factor to bear in mind is the deep role political and campaign financers play in shaping American foreign policy. Miriam Adelson, a Jew and billionaire, has been one of the strongest supporters and financiers of Trump’s recent campaign. It is likely that Trump’s policy on the Middle East and Israel will be influenced by her and the interests she represents. Lastly, Trump’s cabinet can be labeled an “aerie of hawks.” Following on this precedence, Trump has named Marco Rubio as the Secretary of State who is an ardent supporter of Israel and staunch opponent of Iran. His hawkish views on Russia, however, may as well be overridden by Trump and he is unlikely to take a harsh stance against Russia if he leads as a ‘peace-envoy’ to Ukraine.

Another nomination, Mike Waltz, a Republican representative, who is also a critic of China has been nominated for the position of National Security Adviser. Elise Stefanik has been nominated for the position of the United States’ ambassador to the UN – she too has been pro-Israel and an ardent supporter of the Zionist cause. These indicators suggest that Israel’s actions will receive increased support in its genocidal war against civilians in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon.

These are possibilities that will obviously come at a cost, which will most likely be paid by Ukraine. Donald Trump, unlike his support for Israel, has been in flagrant opposition to the NATO expansion in the Eastern Europe. Trump has reservations about NATO’s overdependence on the US finances and military support; he sees little or no value in NATO expansion, especially when it irks Russia. Trump has had a relatively mellow relationship with Vladimir Putin, whom he does not see as a threat, unlike the Democrats. Given the likelihood of further escalation into a potential nuclear war and Trump’s dismissal of Russia as an existential threat to the US, a reduction in support for Ukraine and NATO against Russia will be on the cards, which may result in a ceasefire sooner or later.

Unfortunately, Trump does not share a similar view about Iran and China. Trump considers them threats to the United States’ Middle East and Asia-Pacific strategies, respectively. Building on his previous policies, Trump will likely increase American and Western pressure on Iran, focusing on its nuclear program and ballistic missile program – which was the precise reason why Trump shelved the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. These two agendas possess existential importance for the US and Israel. Highly suspicious of Iranian intentions, Trump will take relatively more proactive measures to contain Iran and protect Israel’s interests in the Middle East. In his recent campaign, Trump categorically opposed Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons.

The US under Trump will pose serious challenges to China in the realms of diplomacy, trade, war, and military, and most importantly, its bid for economic expansion and cooperation in Asia and other regions of the world. With some estimates that China may surpass the US in economic power by the end of this decade, Trump’s 2024–28 regime will have to fight an existential contest with the rising dragon. It must be noted that Trump started a trade war with China when he was the president (2016-20) and sought to limit China’s growing upper hand vis-à-vis the US.

America’s China policy undoubtedly has effects on America’s policy towards Pakistan and India. It is unlikely that Trump will appease Pakistan, provide it with diplomatic support, or resume the military aid that he himself suspended during his last tenure. All this stems from the fact that the US sees Pakistan as an indispensable ally of China and the key state in China’s BRI initiative. CPEC’s operationalization means China’s reduced dependency on maritime trade and resultantly reduced vulnerability to US maritime blackmail. Currently, terrorism and insurgency and a struggling economy are the greatest hurdles to CPEC in Pakistan. As such, US support for Pakistan in counterinsurgency, counterterrorism, and military support appears to be unlikely, and relations are expected to remain cold.

On the other hand, India, which is ‘the frontline state’ in America’s ‘War on China,’ will likely enjoy an increased American support diplomatically, financially, and militarily. The alliances and agreements, such as the QUAD, which had been out of the limelight since the Biden administration came to power, will be back on the headlines again. The Republican presidents have historically been supportive of India, especially as a hedge against China. The nuclear deal, the NSG waiver, the COMCASA, the ISA, the BECA, and numerous other defense and strategic agreements have bolstered India. These agreements were reached whenever a Republican president was in the White House, and there will be one for the next four years.

In conclusion, America’s three-pronged strategy will test Donald Trump’s political maneuverability and his competence. A businessman at heart yet rash and unforgiving make up for a highly unpredictable personality. Yet Trump has proved, notwithstanding other factors, that he is decisive. America will not be in an ambiguous state, as was the case during the Biden administration. Trump will take sides and be decisive in his policies. It is possible that the Russia-Ukraine war will be resolved after Trump takes office and it will spell the end of NATO’s expansion.

Regarding China and Iran, the Trump administration will pursue aggressive policies in the Middle East and the Asia Pacific primarily aiming to contain both threats. This will be marked by the increased assistance to Israel and India. Pakistan on the other hand owing to its strategic importance to China and India’s growing importance against China, may not expect any significant improvement in its relations with the US in the short run.