President Trump is back with a vengeance. Going by his inaugural address, he seems determined to pursue aggressive policies. Countries around the world are understandably flummoxed, by his unpredictability and transactional approach to foreign policy matters. His mercurial manner may end up creating more problems and chaos for the world than help promote cooperation and address the myriad of challenges the world is facing today.

Trump’s immediate tests would be the ongoing war in Ukraine and the tenuous ceasefire in Gaza. Should he fail to deliver on either, his frustration may manifest itself far more precariously, pushing the world to the precipice. His idiosyncrasies can work both ways. Thus, saying anything about the next four years of his presidency remains a difficult proposition in relative terms.

Trump-Modi bonhomie signals a strengthened US-India strategic partnership, potentially sidelining Pakistan on key regional issues like Kashmir and CPEC.

As for South Asia, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is the only incumbent leader Trump has met and worked with during his first term in office (2017-2021). Others have come into power during the Biden administration. Modi, also a populist leader, was able to develop a good level of bonhomie with Trump. No wonder, Modi was one of the few world leaders Trump spoke with after his election victory in November last year.

Beyond the personal equation between the two leaders, relations between the US and India have propitious dynamics as well. The US sees China as its long-term adversary—the only country with the economic and military potential to challenge US supremacy worldwide. Washington, therefore, needs India to counter China. For India, this is working well so far. It has placed itself in a favorable position.

Though its relations with China are still to come out of the shadows of the 2020 border clashes, the two countries are managing to gradually de-escalate and restore calm on the Line of Actual Control. China also realizes the importance of India in the evolving world. Not only is the latter a big market for China’s exports, but it is also an important co-member of the SCO and BRICS. Both these organizations, especially BRICS, are seen in Washington with serious apprehensions.

Whereas India is getting closer to the US, it still attaches enormous value to protecting its “strategic autonomy”. Accordingly, it is maintaining its long-standing friendship with Russia. Despite the Western pressure, India refused to upbraid Russia on Ukraine. Nor has it stopped buying billions of dollars worth of crude oil from Russia. Bilateral defense cooperation also continues without any consequential impediment. In India’s case, the US remains chary of invoking the Countering American Adversaries through the Sanctions Act.

On the contrary, one is seeing US-India relations growing in all spheres including defense. India is fast becoming a major recipient of US defense exports. Should Russia oblige Trump on Ukraine, leading to Trump-Putin bonhomie, India’s space to maneuver will accordingly increase.

India’s strategic autonomy persists as it balances ties with the US and Russia, leveraging both relationships to its advantage.

The fact that Trump invited the QUAD Foreign Ministers (Australia, India, and Japan) to his inauguration reflects the value he attaches to this grouping aimed at countering China in Asia-Pacific. The next QUAD summit is to be held in India this year. While there are no dates yet, it is likely to be held during the second half of 2025. Meanwhile, media reports suggest that Trump is keen to meet Modi at the earliest possible. Bilateral discussions are reportedly underway to see if Prime Minister Modi could visit Washington within the next three months. Modi may become the first foreign leader to be hosted by Trump, and that will doubtless go a long way in furthering the India-US strategic partnership.

A few irritants, including the issues of tariffs and visas, may put some stress on the bilateral relationship. But in the larger scheme of things, these are unlikely to hobble the process of strengthening bilateral relations. To compensate, Trump may oblige Modi by slowing down the legal proceedings pertaining to the conspiracy of murdering a US national, Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, who is also associated with the worldwide Sikh movement for Khalistan. On the behest of India, Trump may also put some pressure on Canada to be receptive to the Indian concerns about Khalistan movement supporters amongst the Sikh community in Canada.

As for Pakistan, more of the same may continue. Nevertheless, some active Pakistani Americans may be able to persuade some officials in the Trump administration to build pressure on Pakistan for the release of the PTI leader, Imran Khan. In July 2019, Imran Khan visited Washington as Prime Minister and met Trump in the White House. One, therefore, cannot rule out some pressure on Islamabad. Pakistan should also worry about open US support to India in Kashmir. There is little possibility of Pakistan doing much on Kashmir as a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council during 2025-2026. The Trump administration would likely oppose any move that is seen as against India’s interests.

Also, developments in US-China relations would significantly affect US-Pakistan relations. During the first Trump administration, the State Department worked hard to undermine the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Islamabad should, therefore, brace itself for pressure from the IMF and the World Bank. Moreover, if India somehow facilitates engagement between Kabul and Washington, it would be a huge setback for Pakistan.

Such a move by New Delhi would make perfect sense, as Pakistan’s relations with Bangladesh are warming significantly. It would also be interesting to see if the Trump administration views Dhaka through the prism of New Delhi or continues with the Biden administration’s accommodative approach toward Bangladesh.

Pakistan faces challenges, including possible pressure for recognizing Israel and defend its strategic interests amid revived Abraham Accords.

The Trump administration may also press Pakistan for the recognition of Israel. The pressure will increase manifold in case the Abraham Accords are successfully revived with Saudi Arabia’s recognition of the Zionist state. Trump would likely work very hard towards achieving this goal with the path strewn with enormous complexities notwithstanding.

One hopes that Pakistan will rise to the challenge. Clarity about long-term strategic objectives is a must before making tactical adjustments. Sun Tzu once said that tactics without strategy are the noise before defeat. Islamabad must not fall prey to short-term temptations and tactical dividends.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of Stratheia.