Stretching from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Ocean, the Indo-Pacific region has become the stage of intense Great Power competition. Donald Trump’s recent victory is likely to heighten this competitive dynamic. During his election campaign, Trump emphasized a strong “America First” stance, advocating for reasserting US influence in regions critical to American interests, including the Indo-Pacific. His administration, in its first term, was notably proactive in bringing America back into a dominant position, with a major emphasis on countering China’s growing influence. His return could rekindle this agenda, intensifying US military and strategic engagement across the region. Noteworthy developments in this landscape include the AUKUS and selected ASEAN nations, given their strategic roles in the region.

Trump’s recent remarks have hinted at expanding AUKUS’s influence to address not just security but also broader diplomatic and economic engagements.

AUKUS, a security agreement between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, aims at enhancing defense capabilities, including nuclear-powered submarine technology. Trump’s re-election could signify renewed US focus on AUKUS, potentially driving greater military cooperation, intelligence sharing, and technological compatibility. Statements coming from the Trump team suggest that a bolstered AUKUS alliance will act as a direct countermeasure to China. Trump’s recent remarks have hinted at expanding AUKUS’s influence to address not just security but also broader diplomatic and economic engagements, positioning it as a pivotal component in the Indo-Pacific strategy.

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This enhanced US engagement could lead to an increase in naval deployments, joint exercises, and a more robust American military presence across the Indo-Pacific. Trump’s focus on military strength and alliance-building means that AUKUS members will seek enhanced partnerships with regional powers, especially India and Japan. This could form an extended security network aimed at curbing Chinese influence and drive an intensified regional arms race, prompting nations, including China, to accelerate their own defensive capabilities.

Furthermore, Trump’s administration may intensify efforts to synchronize with India in this expanded Indo-Pacific strategy. As India becomes a more prominent player in regional security, AUKUS can strengthen US-India relations through increased weapons sales, joint exercises, and strategic consultations. Closer ties between India and AUKUS under Trump’s leadership are likely to challenge not only China but also the diplomatic balance within ASEAN. These shifts could prompt countermeasures from China, including an expanded military and strategic footprint in the South China Sea and surrounding areas.

AUKUS can strengthen US-India relations through increased weapons sales, joint exercises, and strategic consultations.

For ASEAN, Trump’s re-election introduces a more complex position within the regional power hierarchy. During his campaign, Trump reiterated his firm stance against China, which can press ASEAN members to align more definitively. Previously, ASEAN nations had been able to balance relations with both the US and China. However, a more assertive US strategy could strain ASEAN’s policy of neutrality, especially as Trump’s administration potentially encourages stronger US-aligned nations such as Singapore and Vietnam to embrace AUKUS and US policies, while other countries, like Cambodia and Laos, remain closely aligned with Beijing.

Economic and developmental policies are also at stake under Trump’s “America First” approach, which historically deprioritized broader economic cooperation in favor of bilateral trade gains. This shift could reemerge, placing ASEAN countries in a vulnerable position if US economic interaction shifts away once again. Without U.S. assistance, ASEAN nations may be forced to rely further on China as a primary economic partner, even while navigating heightened US pressure to support AUKUS initiatives. The resulting tensions could destabilize ASEAN unity if the Trump administration escalates its Indo-Pacific agenda.

A deeper US integration through AUKUS may increase regional tensions, with ASEAN nations potentially re-evaluating their non-alignment stance. Trump’s recent campaign rhetoric hints that this increased US presence may compel ASEAN to reconsider its diplomatic approach, either towards active conflict participation or individual member alignment with either the AUKUS or China.

A deeper US integration through AUKUS may increase regional tensions, with ASEAN nations potentially re-evaluating their non-alignment stance.

Finally, Trump’s statements suggest potential regional economic impacts tied to rising AUKUS-China rivalry, with possible trade friction, supply chain disruptions, or sanctions affecting countries trading closely with China. ASEAN members may thus intensify intra-ASEAN economic cooperation and pursue additional agreements with other Asian economies to mitigate dependence on the US and China blocs.

Trump’s return as president is likely to solidify AUKUS’s role as a security actor and increase pressure on ASEAN to delineate their alliances. The Indo-Pacific, already a zone of significant geopolitical tension, may see further polarization under Trump’s leadership, challenging ASEAN’s foundational principles of neutrality and unity. The region’s future security and prosperity will depend on its ability to navigate an increasingly divided global landscape.