While I have just boarded my second flight from Istanbul to Dushanbe, Trump has delivered his victory speech. The world has changed significantly while I was travelling from London to Istanbul, yet one thing remains certain: Trump’s re-emergence in global politics is bound to rattle the existing world order. Within hours, markets have already reacted — Tesla’s shares skyrocketing, the dollar spiking to its highest in eight years, and Elon Musk basking in a newfound glory after generously contributing $130 million to the Trump campaign.

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As Trump emerged victorious, his pledge to “end all wars” was likely to send shivers through Kyiv, while Israel couldn’t hide its satisfaction, eagerly anticipating a US foreign policy likely to pivot in its favor. He also promised to go ahead with his hardline policy on immigration, again talking about a crackdown on immigrants in the US. China, as usual, has reacted with stoic restraint, stating that its policy with the US will remain the same. But beneath that diplomatic facade, Beijing must be recalculating its strategies, knowing Trump’s hawkish tendencies on trade could resurface.

As Trump emerged victorious, his pledge to “end all wars” was likely to send shivers through Kyiv.

The dynamics of this victory extend far beyond America’s borders. In the United Kingdom, Labour’s Keir Starmer faces a transformed transatlantic relationship. The special relationship, which once revolved around shared democratic values, may now shift towards transactionalism, something Trump has always preferred.

The Pakistan-US relationship, which had grown more strategic under previous administrations, may now pivot towards a more transactional nature.

Starmer, whose Labour government has just begun, will find himself in a complex position of dealing with a US administration that prioritizes American interests with a ferocity unparalleled by recent predecessors. Starmer’s approach to social justice issues, climate policies, and his moderate stance on global affairs could clash sharply with Trump’s “America-First outlook”, a vision that has shown little regard for multilateralism. Trump’s disdain for European unity could put additional strain on the UK’s already delicate post-Brexit position, especially if he rekindles his criticism of NATO and European trade policies.

In Pakistan, where Shehbaz Sharif’s government is still grappling with internal and regional crises, Trump’s return could inject both relief and unease. Incarcerated Imran Khan’s supporters are euphoric, seeing in Trump a potential ally who could pressure Pakistan’s judiciary or government for his release. But Trump, ever the pragmatist, rarely indulges in loyalty without benefit. If Imran Khan’s cause can be leveraged to serve broader US interests in South Asia, Trump may well raise the issue. But this would be conditional, perhaps tied to Pakistan’s role in the shifting landscape of US-China relations.

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The Pakistan-US relationship, which had grown more strategic under previous administrations, may now pivot towards a more transactional nature — aid, security assurances, or diplomatic gestures offered only in exchange for tangible returns on issues Trump values.

Trump’s unyielding support for Netanyahu in the past suggests that his policy towards Gaza will lack the subtlety or balance that a fragile situation like these demands.

Meanwhile, the ongoing war in Gaza faces a critical turning point. Israel’s visible elation over Trump’s victory is not without reason. His administration has historically aligned itself unreservedly with Israeli interests, even at the cost of alienating broader Middle Eastern dynamics.

Trump’s unyielding support for Netanyahu in the past suggests that his policy towards Gaza will lack the subtlety or balance that a fragile situation like these demands. His approach to conflict resolution has often been direct, even blunt, and this time will likely be no exception. If he decides to intensify support for Israel without pushing for a sustainable two-state solution, the flames in Gaza could be fanned further, potentially escalating into a larger regional conflict. Iran, which had cautiously watched the Biden administration’s diplomatic overtures, now faces the likely scenario of a hostile US leadership, one that views Tehran not as a partner in negotiation but as a target for containment.

Trump’s victory also puts Ukraine in a precarious position. His rhetoric about “stopping all wars” is a thinly veiled message that he intends to dial back US involvement in foreign conflicts — particularly in Eastern Europe. For Kyiv, this could mean a significant reduction in military and financial support, effectively leaving Ukraine to fend for itself against Russian aggression. Hence, the lack of immediate congratulations from Putin may be strategic, perhaps waiting to see how serious  Trump is about disengagement. Trump’s insistence on putting American interests first may translate into withdrawing US support for Ukraine, leaving the nation vulnerable. Such a policy shift would not only embolden Russia but could also weaken Europe’s security architecture, emboldening autocratic regimes worldwide who see in Trump an ally for nationalist and isolationist agendas.

China, too, will be recalculating its approach, even as it maintains a carefully neutral response for now. Under Trump, the US-China relationship was marked by aggressive trade tariffs, technological restrictions, and a burgeoning Cold War mentality. And interestingly, the Biden administration too continued with this hawkish approach, resulting in imposition of record-high tariffs on Chinese EVs and solar energy equipment along curbs on chips and AI as part of the ongoing US-China trade war. How far Trump can go during his second term is yet to be seen.

Trump’s “America First” trade policy could provoke retaliatory measures from Beijing, intensifying the global economic divide.

Although Trump’s victory speech contained no direct mention of China, Beijing’s leaders will be well aware that their economic powerhouse is once again in Washington’s crosshairs. If Trump resumes his economic offensives against China, global trade could face renewed disruptions, with ripple effects in emerging economies heavily reliant on Chinese partnerships, like Pakistan. Trump’s “America First” trade policy could provoke retaliatory measures from Beijing, intensifying the global economic divide.

Yet, in the midst of this shifting landscape, perhaps the most unsettling factor is Trump’s unpredictability. A man known for his impulsive decisions, his approach to foreign policy is as volatile as it is uncompromising. He has returned to power with the backing of fervent populists, billionaires, and corporate America, who now expect him to prioritize their interests. The surge in the dollar, the rise in Tesla’s shares, and the financial windfall for Musk are all indicators of an America bracing for policies that may favor the elite over the middle class or international cooperation. With economic disparities on the rise, Trump’s America may deepen these divides, focusing on isolationist policies that ultimately risk alienating allies while emboldening rivals.

As Trump’s victory reshapes global dynamics, we are reminded of the potency of populism — a force that blinds voters to reasoned judgement, even in a country as robustly democratic as the United States. Populism thrives on promises rather than policies, drawing in voters with spectacle and sentiment, often at the cost of critical reflection.

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In his victory speech, Trump has promised a renewed, fortified America — one that claims to lead without entangling itself in “unnecessary” alliances or conflicts. But in a world more interconnected than ever, this vision of isolation is a dangerous illusion. As global powers recalibrate, the era of Trump 2.0 has arrived, and the world must brace itself for an America that prioritizes dominance over diplomacy, pragmatism over principles, and division over unity. The world order, as we knew it, may be entering its twilight, and history will judge the repercussions of this victory.