Does the US forces’ withdrawal from Afghanistan mark an end to the strategic cooperation between the United States and Pakistan, or does it just conclude another era of security relations between both countries? What could be the new anchors for cooperation to ensure a sustainable environment for collaboration? The solicitude determines the future of US-Pakistan relations in post-US withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Traditional security relations have been the primary anchor of US-Pakistan relations, leaving a vacuum after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Both countries have had a complex bilateral history of good and bad times. During the Cold War era, there were ups and downs, i.e., lows during the 1965 and 1971 wars and highs during the 1980s when Russia invaded Afghanistan. Later, after the end of the Cold War, the US slid away, having no more interest in the region. Eventually, after 9/11, there again came a high frequency in relations and cooperation.

Pakistan has been a Non-NATO ally since the US started the war on terror in Afghanistan and required Pakistan’s logistic, geopolitical, and strategic support. Currently, the end of the US direct war on terror and withdrawal from Afghanistan raises absolute concerns about the future of US-Pakistan relations.

The convergence and divergence of interests serve as indicators to elucidate challenges and opportunities in Pakistan’s relations with the United States and further locate potential areas for cooperation. Traditional security relations have always been the premier and the only pillar of Pakistan-US relations, leaving a vacuum in relations after the end of the war in Afghanistan.

Great power competition and Indo-Pak rivalry are other challenges in this arena. Despite the challenges of great power competition, worst economic conditions, and political turmoil, the future holds promise for prosperity as certain areas in traditional and non-traditional security domains can be focused on for synergy, providing a positive outlook for US-Pakistan relations.

Security relations, i.e. military-to-military cooperation, have always been strong between Pakistan and the US. Recently, a mid-level US-Pakistan Defence Dialogue was held in DC in Feb 2023. However, the role of political leadership and institutions has been undermined.

The Great Power Competition between the US and China creates challenges and mistrust, impacting US-Pakistan relations significantly.

There has yet to be an institutional civilian law enforcement technical training exchange program, i.e., enhancing Pakistan’s criminal justice system and law & order and governance. Though documented in the Integrated Security Strategy of the United States 2022, there has been no practical execution yet.

There are multiple grounds to foster further security cooperation, including Counter Violent Extremism, Counter Terrorism, Counter Narcotics, and Human trafficking, which has been neglected but holds potential for cooperation. As far as the relevance of Islamabad for Washington in the post-Afghan withdrawal is concerned, there are challenges for the United States in having the Taliban for counter-terrorism commitments and preventing Afghanistan from becoming the base for terrorism again.

This brings the convergence of interests of both nations, highlighting the potential for synergy in security cooperation and instilling hope in the audience about the future of US-Pakistan relations.

The Great Power Competition between the US and China is another significant challenge impacting US-Pakistan relations. Complications and mistrust arise as both countries strengthen ties with cross-rivals, i.e., the US alliance with India and Pakistan’s partnership with China. Amidst this competition, the United States’ overwhelming support for India has led to a disbalance of power in South Asia.

India’s hegemonic behavior significantly threatens the region’s stability, especially with two nuclear arch-rivals as immediate neighbors. This situation ultimately urges Pakistan to strengthen ties with its immediate neighbor, China, for the balance of power and quest for economic stability.

Future collaboration lies in non-traditional security areas like economy, climate, energy, education, and people-to-people exchanges.

While Pakistan may not be a primary actor in the US-China competition, its strong ties with China provide a strategic balance against India, and partnering in the BRI through CPEC and flexible Chinese loans offers the opportunity for significant economic growth and stability.

Pakistan may look closer to China, but it is never a part of camp politics; rather, it tends to build broad ties with the United States, which is actually in the country’s interest.

Although there are multiple areas for cooperation in traditional security, the real future lies in non-traditional security, particularly the economy, energy, climate, health and education. Pakistan trades 9 Billion Dollars with the US annually. Both countries concluded the 9th Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) meeting in May 2023 in Islamabad, with ample potential for expansion.

Reinventing relations demands increased trade and investment as the centre of attention. Similarly, the extraordinary potential lies in climate and energy cooperation between the US and Pakistan. Multiple platforms are actively engaging in climate and energy cooperation.

US Pakistan Green Alliance Framework brings advanced graders for processing facilities for the Mango industry; the Pakistan Climate and Environment Working Group developed a 4.5-million-dollar program for agriculture; the Pakistan Energy Security Dialogue announced a 500,000-dollar program to restore electricity infrastructure in flooded areas bringing tremendous support and investment in Pakistan.

Another promising initiative to promote education, R&D, and cultural exchange for enhanced people-to-people contact, Punjab and California signed a Sister Province Agreement in 2023.

The potential for non-traditional security cooperation between the US and Pakistan is significant. Both countries can leverage this potential to engage in technological advancements, research and development, and technical training.

This collaboration can ensure a successful energy transition to renewables, a clean and sustainable environment, agricultural advancement, women’s empowerment, and infrastructure development, thereby laying a solid foundation for future collaborations.

Civil societies, public-private partnerships, and bilateral cooperation can redefine US-Pakistan relations for a resilient and mutually beneficial future.

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan is a geopolitical milestone for the future of Pakistan-U.S. relations. The relations that were earlier influenced and determined by external factors now demand transformation and new anchors to advance with resilient partnerships not influenced or shaped by external factors but primarily based on bilateral cooperation with shared political goals.

The country can always be relevant to the U.S. as it is located at the crossroads of South Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East while sharing borders with the three most relevant countries for the USA, i.e. China, Iran, and Afghanistan.

Currently, the relations are low, but there are new anchors to rebuild ties with new zeal on traditional and non-traditional grounds, which constitute multiple opportunities for cooperation. Civil societies, the private sector, and public-private partnerships can play a significant role in fostering good relations in the future.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.