Iran has always been a country of immense importance in geo-politics, yet ever since the Gaza conflict erupted it gained further prominence. Iran was the only country which protested against Israeli atrocities with actions. Although Iran does not recognise Isarel but has always been averse to the policies of what it calls “Zionist regime” and last year during Gaza conflict it was for the first time that both exchanged military arsenal.

Iran’s strategic location grants it control over key global trade routes, including the Strait of Hormuz.

The situation between the two could have escalated but it was controlled from both sides, and it played a catalytic role in arriving at ceasefire deals first between Israel and Hezbollah and then between Israel and Hamas. After taking over, Mr Trump has renewed pressure on Iran for giving up its nuclear program. Emboldened by Mr Trump’s actions, there are statements from Israeli leadership for using military option against Iran which are likely to push the region towards more turmoil.

Geographically, Iran is a vast country, almost double the size of Pakistan with half the population. Iran is connected to two large water bodies; in its north lies Caspian Sea and in the south is Persian Gulf with one of the most critical chokepoints; Strait of Hormuz. On land, Iran is bordered by Iraq, Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

It also shares neighbourhood with Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, KSA, UAE and Oman in Persian Gulf, while with Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan in Caspian Sea. It connects Middle East and West Asia with Central Asian Republics and Russia. Also, it can access Europe via Türkiye. In Caspian Sea, although it has disputes with neighbouring countries over the delimitation of maritime zones for each country, yet it enjoys normal relations with all of them.

Russia and Iran have strategic relations which were further improved when the Iranian–Russian Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership was signed on January 17, 2025, by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in Moscow. The subject of most concern was the security provisions whereby the two countries agreed not to help any country that attacked the other.

Unlike Russia-North Korea agreement which included a mutual assistance clause in the event of either country coming under attack, the Treaty between Russia and Iran just affirms no help to the country that attacks the other. Iran will have to fight its own war against Israel and the US.

In a recent row with the Ukrainian President at White House, Mr Trump seemed siding with Russia. He has also hinted towards easing sanctions against Russia. On the other hand, he has vowed to tighten noose around Iran by maximising pressure on Iran and the first step in this direction is slapping more sanctions. If the we ease the sanctions on Russia, will it affect support for Iran in Russian camp is a question Iranian leadership may be grappling with. Following this there are voices from Israel to use military option against Iran for refraining it from achieving nuclear capability.

The US and Israel’s growing military collaboration increases pressure on Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

In an interview with Politico, Israel’s Foreign Minister Gideon Saar opined that in order to stop a nuclear Iranian program before it will be weaponised a reliable military option should be on the table. Further, the Iran Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Iranian Presidential Administration, in a report on March 01, 2025, published a front-page article that suggested to Iranian security and government institutions to closely follow developments in the Caucasus region.

It highlights that deepening strategic ties between Israel, the US and Azerbaijan may expand Israel’s presence in the Caucasus and weaken Iran’s influence in the region. There are also reports that the US may ease sanctions on Azerbaijan and ask the country to help rebuild Gaza especially in energy sector provided other Muslim countries also participate.

From erstwhile Persian Empire era, Iran has been a country of prominence maintaining its influence in its surrounding region. In this quest, it has in recent time, supported Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq actively to further mutual interests. The historical enmity between Arabs and Persians has also been a factor for the Iranians to radiate their influence southward. In its north also, it wishes to have peaceful environment and alignment with Russia is a source of succour for Iran.

Iran maintains a naval base at Bandar-e-Anzali which has frigates, and some smaller ships employed there to protect Iranian interests. In south, Iran has had troubling relations with its Arab neighbours especially KSA, UAE and Bahrain, which were restored in year 2023 under the auspices of China in a significant diplomatic breakthrough.

During two spats with Israel last year, Iran showcased its technological and military might, however killing of Ismael Haniyeh being a state guest in Tehran and disruption of missile launching sites, missile and drone developing facilities and breaching of air defence systems by Israel during attacks on Iran didn’t bode well with the tall claims that Iran had been making as part of its psy-ops campaign. It raised many questions and in fact Iran did not respond to Israel’s last attack on October 26,  which was indicative of substantial damage to its military capability.

Persian Gulf or some may call it Arabian Gulf is a unique waterbody which is surrounded by the countries rich in natural resources. Forty percent of world’s energy resource passes through the Gulf. Around 21 million barrels per day of oil pass through Strait of Hormuz out of which 18 million barrels pass through Strait of Malacca. It is crucial for world’s economy and realising this potential, Iran has gained influence in the Gulf which it has accomplished through the use of geography.

Iran’s alliance with Russia strengthens, yet lacks a mutual defense clause seen in other strategic agreements.

Iran is one of the two best positioned countries in the Persian Gulf region. It enjoys the longest coastline (5,800 km, including islands), which encompasses the entire northern Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman (also known in Iran as Sea of Makran), giving it de facto control of almost all shipping routes leading to and from the Strait of Hormuz. The islands in the Gulf have been converted into naval bases where shore-based guns, rockets and missiles are installed as well as small speed boats with rocket launchers are also stationed. Even the disputed islands of Tunb have been equipped.

Iran and UAE have a dispute over the possession of Tunb islands which is claimed by both, the islands are however under possession of Iran under administration of Hormozgan province. Iranian dominance in Persian Gulf, especially around Strait of Hormuz is a source of worry for the US and allies as Iran can disrupt world’s shipping effectively. During the Tanker war from 1981 to 1983, the world suffered heavy losses which are not worth repeating. There are US, UK and French bases in the region around Persian Gulf to address any untoward situation.

US fifth fleet ships regularly patrol the area which is opposed by Iran as extra regional intervention. Persian Gulf has a kind of impunity because all stakeholders tend to take care of peace and security here. It may be the reason that there were voices in Iran recently to shift its capital to some shore city of Persian Gulf as Tehran is right in the centre of the country and mostly vulnerable due to its proximity to some nuclear and missile developing sites.

Iran has a unique dual system of armed forces; Artesh is comprised of regular conventional armed forces while Islamic Republic Guard Corps (IRGC) mainly have asymmetric capability including missile force. Both forces have naval component. Islamic Republic Iran Navy is a conventional branch and is primarily responsible for operations at high seas. IRGC Navy is deployed for the security operations in Persian Gulf and possesses small speed boats with rocket launchers installed.

Employed for swarm attacks, these boats pose considerable threat to the shipping via Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf closer to the Iranian coast. The missile batteries installed on islands such as Qeshm, Greater Tunb etc dominate the Persian Gulf environment. Logically, Iran is cognisant of its valuable geostrategic location and seems always prepared to act or react to protect its interests. It knows it is sitting right next to the soft belly of world trade and can punch in, pain of which will be felt far away. Among all the armed forces, naval components are one of the key focussed areas in development.

Iranians are deft in diplomacy and handle situation according to the dictates of environment. During the Gaza conflict they actively pursued diplomatic course with regional and extra regional countries, especially the Arab neighbours. After October 26, 2024, attack on Iran the world sat fingers crossed awaiting Iranian response. Instead, Iran showed restraint and focussed on diplomatic efforts in the region.

The two most important endeavours in this direction were Iranian President’s visit to Moscow and signing Strategic Agreement with Russia while Iranian Chief of Defence Staff visited Pakistan and met political and military leadership. During Pakistan Navy’s Exercise AMAN 2025 which was held from February 7 to 11, 2025, Iranian Navy Chief attended AMAN Dialogue while Iranian Navy’s indigenously built ship IRIS Jamaran participated in sea exercises for the first time.

Iran’s naval buildup in the Persian Gulf poses a significant challenge to Western military influence in the region.

Iran is sceptical of US political moves in the region especially its presence which Iran terms as an intervention. In the backdrop of US Indo Pacific strategy when small alliances were announced such as Quad, I2U2 etc Iran in year 2023 proposed an idea of a regional naval alliance with KSA, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq, Pakistan, and India. The current administration in the US is of particular concern for Iran as during his last tenure President Trump abandoned JCPOA and during the current one, he aims to exercise maximum pressure on Iran. Interestingly, he is also ready to talk to the Iranian leadership.

President Trump does not like wars but may also not refrain from creating war hysteria and Iran is well suited to become a patsy in Middle East. The current US administration is heavily tilted towards Israel and recently military aid worth $4bn has been sanctioned for Israel, not to forget it was earlier held back by the President Biden’s administration. Iran is genuinely concerned about Israel and US growing ties in its northern neighbourhood which can be deemed as encirclement strategy.

With all-out support from the US, it is but logical that there are voices from Israel for use of military option against Iran, which Israel alone cannot undertake. But for the US also, it is not as easy as it is generally comprehended since it should be very well grasped that Iran has its grip on the world’s lifeline in its south, which is a trump card with the country.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.