The saga between Israel, Iran, and the USA will shape the region’s future. The US and Iran are set to hold the sixth round of nuclear talks in Oman on June 15, 2025. Before that, the USA had begun evacuating its Middle Eastern embassies and military bases as the Iran nuclear talks came to a head. Trump has also stated that Israel may attack Iran, warning of ‘massive conflict’. In retaliation, Iran has threatened to attack US Army bases in the Middle East. Now, all eyes are on the next round of negotiations that will take place in Oman.

Pakistan’s retaliation has shifted the course of events, showcasing Chinese-led technology against Western systems.

However, Pakistan’s role is crucial in all this. The recent conflict between Pakistan and India has significantly altered the global perception of Pakistan. By downing French Rafale, Israeli drones, and Russian S-400s using Chinese-led technology, Pakistan’s retaliation has shifted the course of events. This conflict was essentially a showcase of the competition between Western and Chinese military technology.

Although it was resolved after just four days, President Donald Trump claims to have led the peace talks and facilitated the ceasefire, for which he’s willing to accept the Nobel Peace Prize, considering the nuclear threat posed by two nuclear-armed states. As a student of International Relations, I’ve come to realize that things aren’t that straightforward. It wasn’t just Trump’s desire for peace that brought about the resolution, but there’s more to the story.

Pakistan’s reaction has indeed shifted the world’s perception. The US government now sees Pakistan’s role in a new light, as President Donald Trump’s repeated statements suggest. The American reaction to the Pakistani delegation led by Bilawal Bhutto is also telling. And General Michael Kurilla, Commander of US Central Command, recently testified before the House Armed Services Committee, saying that America’s relationships with Pakistan and India can’t be a simple “yes” or “no” proposition. He also described Pakistan as a “phenomenal partner in fighting terrorism.”  These moves are seen as a sign of renewed ties between Washington and Islamabad.

America’s relationships with Pakistan and India can’t be a simple ‘yes’ or ‘no’ proposition.

It is not that simple. How can the USA, which has India not only as a strategic partner but also as an economic one, start to behave differently? Surely, there is a China factor, but if we consider it in the context of Iran, there is more to it. Iran’s proxies have been brutally destroyed by Israel in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, and Iraq. It is left isolated there.

However, now only one state can be its potential ally: Pakistan, which has demonstrated its potential in combat. In Pakistan, there is the second-largest Shia community after Iran, comprising 10-15 percent of the population. This means that Iran is not only its neighbor but also the leader of a religious sect, the Shia. To eliminate any potential support for Iran from Pakistan, the West, along with the USA, will pressure Pakistan to refrain from any aggressive actions.

Already, Pakistan is under pressure from India regarding the Indus Water Treaty, which is a lifeline for 241.5 million people. Since Pakistan is already focused on securing its western borders with Afghanistan in KPK and combating insurgency in Balochistan, the USA will maintain its influence over Pakistan through India.

If Pakistan stays neutral, it’ll face internal pressure to support Iran; if it acts, it risks global backlash.

Either way, Pakistan is in a tough spot. If Iran is under attack and Pakistan openly backs Iran, the US will step up pressure on Pakistan. But if Pakistan stays neutral, it’ll face internal pressure to support Iran. Ultimately, Pakistan is doomed to suffer. To avoid this, Pakistan needs to be careful with its policies and learn from its past.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.