During tensions between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, a new chapter has emerged in the region following the defense pact between the Philippines and Japan. The Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) is designed to deploy forces on each other’s soil, conduct joint military exercises, and allow Filipino forces to carry out combat training in Japan. This pact is tailored due to the shared threat posed by China to both Japan and the Philippines in the East China Sea and South China Sea, respectively. However, the pact still requires ratification by their respective parliaments. The defense pact carries significance for both signees to create an impression of deterrence and unity against China. Most significantly, the pact is a step towards containing China’s influence, with the assistance of the United States, in the South China Sea.
The pact is a consequence of continuous skirmishes between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea. The most serious incident occurred on June 17, when Chinese Coast Guard personnel wielding sticks, knives, and an axe surrounded and boarded three Philippine navy boats during a resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal in the disputed Spratly Islands.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. denounced China’s actions in the South China Sea and warned that the death of any Filipino at the hands of China would be deemed close to an act of war. The Philippines demanded financial compensation of $1 million for the June collision.
However, the Chinese Foreign Ministry termed it a provocation and warned the Philippines to stop, claiming it was safeguarding its rights and enforcing the law. They asserted that the Philippines should bear the consequences of its infringement activities.
The dispute in the South China Sea has numerous reasons. Firstly, the region is rich in fishing resources, and with China controlling much of the area, it has become one of the largest fishing industries in the world. The fishing industry in China has significantly contributed to its economy, making it the biggest exporter of aquatic products globally. Secondly, the region is rich in energy resources. The US Geological Survey estimated in 2012 that the entire South China Sea contains around 12 billion barrels of oil and 1900 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Thirdly, control over the South China Sea would guarantee security in distant waters and expand maritime navigation, potentially outmatching US maritime dominance in East Asia. The South China Sea connects the Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean, facilitating global commerce of goods and energy shipments to China, Japan, South Korea, and Russia.
Control over this region enables China to thrive through exports and mitigates any vulnerability to attacks through the South China Sea.
China is engaged in a tussle with the Philippines over four islands: the Spratly Islands, Paracel Islands, Macclesfield Bank, and Pratas Island and Reefs. China claims historical rights over these islands, which are covered by a nine-dash line in the South China Sea. The Nine-Dash Line encompasses much of the South China Sea, even cutting into the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines. The Spratly Islands, rich in marine resources, minerals, and hydrocarbon deposits, have been a bone of contention for standoffs among China, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei. Reportedly, except for Brunei, all others have established garrisons on the Spratly Islands.
China has also constructed artificial islands in the South China Sea to claim much of its territorial waters. De facto, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) permits the construction of artificial islands under Article 60, but it allows construction only within a country’s exclusive economic zone, with the restriction that the island-constructing country should inform nearby coastal states and prevent any harm to those countries.
In this regard, the Philippines filed a case in the Permanent Court of Arbitration, wherein in 2016, the court favored the Philippines, declaring the nine-dash line without legal basis. However, China refused to comply with the decision, arguing that the court lacked jurisdiction over the case. Notably, powerful countries often do not comply with international court decisions because these courts lack specific implementing mechanisms. Countries comply with decisions in contentious jurisdictions, which remain binding on the parties involved.
When decisions are implemented by the United Nations Security Council, countries with veto power often use their veto to prevent the implementation of decisions against themselves or their allies.
With this pact, the Philippines is also expected to benefit from a Japanese program launched in April 2023, designed to provide weapons and equipment free of charge to like-minded countries to expand security cooperation. This will assist the Philippines in acquiring weapons and equipment to engage in any standoff with China effectively, though it may still be unable to outmatch China. Additionally, in November, Japan provided the Philippines with five surveillance radars to strengthen its coastal supervision capabilities, which will improve surveillance in the South China Sea.
Most importantly, the Philippines is strategically useful for the United States because the South China Sea dispute could drag the USA into conflict. Due to its proximity to Taiwan, the Philippines is crucial for the USA in any potential war over Taiwan, as American analysts believe that China will eventually invade it. Thus, the USA has played an active role in forming this pact to strengthen its allies against China, maintain its influence, and contain China’s growing power globally. For Japan, the pact may not seem as immediately constructive since Japan is not directly engaged with China in a territorial dispute in the South China Sea.
The presence of Japanese forces on Philippine soil and joint drills may serve as a deterrent for China and signal unity among China’s antagonists.
Japan and China have been in a tussle over a group of islands named Senkaku by Japan and Diaoyu by China. These islands can be strategic frontiers for safeguarding China from Japan and the USA. China could use these islands to establish submarine bases, missile bases, and radar systems, expanding its security and military presence in the region. For instance, Mischief Reef in the South China Sea has been armed with anti-aircraft weapons and a CIWS missile defense system. Similarly, the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands could be used for defense purposes in the East China Sea.
If the pact is ratified, it will signal a capable deterrence against China, though it may not help the Philippines gain its due share in the South China Sea, as China claims historical rights over the region with the nine-dash line.
