Global power distribution is dynamic and oscillates among different great powers. In the contemporary era, scholars debate the rise of China and its potential implications for the existing power distribution. The rise of China can be better understood in economic terms as it sustained incredible [average] GDP growth of 9.71% from 1989 to 2017. According to the World Bank, this is the highest-ever GDP growth sustained by a state.

The high GDP growth makes China the second-largest economy in the world in terms of GDP and the largest economy in terms of PPP. Scholars, particularly Western scholars, assume China will alter the dynamics of global structure. Nonetheless, China has always pledged that its rise will remain peaceful. Officially, China first marked its economic growth as “Peaceful Rise” and later replaced it with “Peaceful Development.”

China’s rise challenges the established global order, with scholars debating whether it will remain peaceful amidst increasing assertiveness.

So far, China has grown peacefully. However, China’s rise’s future trajectory might differ from its past developments. In line with Mearsheimer’s argument, this article assumes that China’s rise in the future cannot be peaceful. Many reasons can be accounted for this claim, among which this article subscribes to the following: the historical pattern of other powers’ rise – Germany, Japan, and USSR, the new global developments/dynamics, and China’s domestic changes.

Historically, the rise of a new great power (with a different ideology from the existing powers) is always coupled with abrupt changes in international structure. For instance, the rise of Germany after its unification in 1871 and its subsequent quest for a share in global power eventually led to World War I. Likewise, the rise of imperial Japan in the post-World War I era became one of the leading causes of World War II and the inter-war crisis period. Further, the rise of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) in WWII remains a backbone of great power contention throughout the Cold War era.

All these powers were unsatisfied with their place in the global structure and challenged the status quo. These powers first enhance their military power and then flex their muscles globally. China’s rise is slightly different from the pattern of the above-mentioned powers as it primarily focuses on its economic development. However, with the economic development, China is heavily investing in its military.

Military expenditure of China has grown exponentially since the outset of China’s economic growth, and China’s military budget increased from US $27.86 billion in 1996 to US $224 billion in 2023 (1.55 trillion Yuan). Moreover, with the coming of Xi Jinping, China is eagerly acquiring new military technologies and displaying more assertive behavior in security matters.

Historically, no emerging power with a different ideology has risen peacefully, raising concerns about China’s trajectory.

Since the dawn of the 21st century, several significant changes have occurred in international society. The foremost among them is the rise of China itself. A few decades ago, when China began crawling on the development path, China was weak and unstable. Now, the dynamics are different. Further, the Asian Financial Crisis (1997), the 9/11 incident (2001), America’s unilateral invasion of Iraq (2003), the American Financial Crisis (2008), the European debt Crisis (2012-15), the growing environmental catastrophe, the outbreak of Covid’19, and other events/challenges, severely weakened US legitimacy as a hegemon.

The declining US legitimacy creates a leadership space. The available space will certainly motivate China to play its role. Another dynamic is the rise of Xi Jinping to the highest power cadre in China. Xi is an ambitious person with global aims. Xi’s actions are more assertive than his predecessors as he believes it is the right time to extend China’s power beyond its horizons. The aforementioned global and national dynamics have been missing in China in the past decades.

China never acknowledges wanting to alter the existing structure; instead, it repeatedly pledged its support for the current global structure. However, they always maintained that the existing structure should be reformed for a more equitable and fair power distribution. Before Xi’s era, China was gently asking for reforms. After Xi assumed power, China became more assertive in its claims. On one hand, China is now vehemently pushing for reforms in the system. On the other hand, China is actively engaged in forming new institutions and taking new initiatives.

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is the most significant example, which engages more than 100 countries through different projects. Likewise, China joined hands with other developing states and formed BRICS. China’s active advocacy of expansion finally led to the inclusion of six new members into the group. From the BRICS platform, China and other members launched the New Development Bank (NDB) and Contingent Reserve Assets (CRA). These developments aim to rescue member states during crises and decrease their dependency on international institutions.

Moreover, China also laid the foundation of the Asian Infrastructural Investment Bank (AIIB), which gives loans to states for developmental projects. Finally, China initiated projects like Asia for Asians and Community with Shared Future. Ostensibly, all these projects support underdeveloped and developing states in their development endeavors. However, scholars are alarmed that these institutions will be utilized for reducing states’ reliance on international liberal institutions vis-à-vis growing China’s role in global power dynamics.

US efforts to decouple from China through alliances and trade wars risk global economic instability.

China is rising and making its mark all across the globe. However, few scholars doubt China’s rise. Still, many scholars assume that China is rising. Few scholars believe that China’s rise will be peaceful. They based their claim on China’s rise in the past few decades, which is smooth and peaceful. Nevertheless, this might not be the case in the future. Historically, no state with different ideologies from established great power(s) ever rose peacefully. China’s behavior differs slightly from the past emerging great powers but somehow aligns with the historical pattern.

Additionally, space has been created to shape China’s behavior in the global dynamics, where many factors challenge US legitimacy and hegemony. Finally, the rise of assertive leaders like Xi Jinping to a central powerful position in China will also impact China’s foreign policy. In Xi’s era, China’s policy structure, where the economy was dictating politics – Deng reforms, was reversed; now, politics is again dictating the economy like in the Mao era. Therefore, it can be assumed that China’s future development trajectory will take a new and more aggressive path.

The aggression, or even changing the course of foreign policy/relations, might aggravate established power, the US, which can trigger conflict. Nonetheless, the conflict nature will be different from past conflicts. Currently, the US and the West are looking for shortcuts like the formation of QUAD and I2U2 alliances, and imposing a trade war on China. Pragmatically, current policies are intended to decouple from China. Though, rhetorically US top leadership always maintains that they are not intended to achieve decoupling. These policies can never be viable.

Integration into the existing global system and acknowledging China’s role are essential to maintaining peace in the evolving power dynamics.

Decoupling from China will be disastrous for the whole world, particularly the US and the West. The only way to avoid the conflict will be through the complete integration of China into the existing system and shaping China’s belief in the system in ideational terms, not instrumental ones. Moreover, another way of preventing conflict escalation will be the US acknowledgment of China as a great power and acceptance of its role in power dynamics. Without both elements, the “Peace” in China’s peaceful rise will remain missing.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.