The Middle East remains a region, perpetually at cross roads of history, a region where deep- seated conflicts and shifting power politics successfully perpetuates the cycles of instability. The events of 2025, hold the key to establishing the security architecture of a volatile region, and this hinges on whether the diplomatic world can work out the root causes: Palestinian statehood, the economic disparity and sectarian divisions. However, the absence of either regional leadership or an international leadership has left millions vulnerable to the threat of renewed violence, and fragmentation.

Gaza continues to endure a humanitarian crisis as its infrastructure has been destroyed, approximately 47,000 lives lost in recent hostilities

The linchpin of regional insecurity remains the Palestinian question. Although fragile ceasefires have been declared in Gaza and Israel had purportedly withdrawn from Lebanon, Israel’s aggressive policies have continued to sow tensions. The military operations in Gaza are continuing and resentments and unrest in the West Bank grows because of settlement expansions. Records portray that a portion of Israel’s right wing view this scene as an open door that permits the annexation of Palestinian lands absolutely, while guaranteeing the expulsion of the tenants, if necessary, in the light of security issues. Such actions would not only harm prospects of a two state solution, but would also spark widespread regional backlash. Gaza continues to endure a humanitarian crisis as its infrastructure has been destroyed, approximately 47,000 lives lost in recent hostilities.

The situation remains precariously balanced on the brink of chaos in Lebanon. Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon caused January 2025 delays to the November 2024 ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel. Despite being given until February 18 to withdraw, mutual distrust between Hezbollah and Israeli forces could plunge the country back into war. Fragility of Lebanon’s political system is further destabilized through spillover effect of Syria’s collapse as clashes and refugee influx further strains resources and governance.

Iran is set to undergo internal political uncertainty that will further diminish its position in the region

Syria, has become a classic case of impotency due to its civilian conflict. Bashar al Assad’s regime has come apart and the country has been carved out into zones of Islamist factions and militias that have turned it into a playing field for proxy wars of regional powers such as Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Assad’s demise has watered down Iran’s influence and ability to enhance proxies such as Hezbollah and Hamas. Having relied on low risk proxy strategies, Iran’s gamble backfired when Israel systematically unravelled these networks through assassinations and air strikes. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, now aged 85, is nearing the end of his tenure, and Iran is set to undergo internal political uncertainty that will further diminish its position in the region.

Prolonged multi front conflicts are likely to prove hard for Israel’s economy, domestically discontent against government policies, is growing

But Israel’s military edge is unmatched, that too at a price. Encouraged by unflagging U.S. backing under President Trump, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has been adopting an assertive position against Iran and its proxies. Prolonged multi front conflicts are likely to prove hard for Israel’s economy, domestically discontent against government policies, is growing. If military and economic pressures pile up on Netanyahu, analysts suggest his administration may not last a full year.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates aim to reduce dependence on oil revenues by diversifying their economies, but never ending instability in the region undermines their efforts

Gulf security concerns continue to flare up in Yemen. An intermittent drone attack on vital shipping lanes in the Red Sea broke the fragile Saudi-Houthis ceasefire. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates aim to reduce dependence on oil revenue by diversifying their economies, but never ending instability in the region undermines their efforts.

The situation is further complicated by the diminishing U.S. influence in the region. That vacuum has been filled — problematically — by the regional powers. Upcoming U.S. presidential elections could affect Middle Eastern dynamics such as a more critical Israel direction and diplomatic solution with Iran, while another term for Trump could encourage Netanyahu, and add more pressure for Tehran.

Since 2020, efforts at normalization of Arab states have come to a halt, mostly due to renewed conflicts, while many economic cooperation agreements remain unrealized

Another push for insecurity across the region is economic inequality. Economies dependent on crude oil continue facing the challenge of coping with suppressed prices as they contend with unemployment among the youth as well as social unrest. Since 2020, efforts at normalization of Arab states have come to a halt mostly due to renewed conflicts, while many economic cooperation agreements remain unrealized.

The Middle East is at a turning point, and decisions that are made—or choose not to be made—will determine its future for years to come. Bold diplomacy, backed by international consensus to address the root causes of the problem, such as Palestinian statehood, is necessary to resolve these challenges. Issues of economic disparity have to be tackled through inclusive developmental policies that empower the marginalized communities rather than allowing the rentier system based on oil revenue proceeds to thrive incessantly.

Millions are suffering violence and displacement in a vacuum due to the absence of a  ‘regional policeman’

There would be no coordination among stakeholders to stabilize primary hotspots such as Gaza, Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon, and therefore, the region will sink into further chaos and will remain in a situation of perpetual low intensity conflicts and humanitarian crises. Millions are suffering violence and displacement in a vacuum due to the absence of a  ‘regional policeman’.

As history knows all too well, violence in the Middle East cycles dangerously on itself, never to be brought to rest; it requires deliberate decisions informed by concepts of justice and reconciliation. Whether 2025 is the birth of a new era or another year of turmoil depends on leaders who need to overcome expediencies for the long term in order to shape peace and progress towards independence and stability.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.