The Armenian-Iran strategic agreement will materialise

Iran’s ambassador to Armenia, Mehdi Sobhani, has announced that Yerevan and Tehran are working on an expanded comprehensive strategic agreement, which will be signed by the leaders of both countries. Iranian Ambassador Sobhani is well known as a “diplomat” with a senior IRGC background. He was the central coordinator of Iranian activities in Syria and links with the former Assad regime before becoming ambassador to Armenia in 2023.

Ambassador Sobhani hinted that the upcoming comprehensive strategic agreement would be a long-term agreement. The announcement of the agreement did not come as a surprise to researchers focusing on the malign Iran-Armenia alliance that has been growing since 2020.

In the last days of the Biden administration, which pursued Armenia-centric policies in the South Caucasus region, the then Secretary of State Anthony Blinken rushed to sign a Strategic Partnership Agreement with Yerevan. The shortsighted Blinken foreign policy approaches in the South Caucasus have resulted in the alienation of long-time Western partners Azerbaijan and Georgia, which were sanctioned by the Biden administration as the main initiators of the entire South Caucasus’ 96 percent geopolitical, geo-economic and logistical project where Armenia has zero role.

Instead the Biden administration funnelled hundreds of millions of dollars in grants and financial aid to Armenia, arming it despite the fact that Armenia is an official ally of Russia, has Russian troops based on its territory and controlling its borders, engages in state-level sanctions evasion and has created a re-export mechanism with Russia.

Blinken’s foreign policies alienated Azerbaijan and Georgia

Following the rushed signing of Blinken’s strategic partnership agreement with Armenia it was expected that the Islamic Republic of Iran would step up its long desired attempts to sign the same kind of agreement with Armenia. Not surprisingly, following Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan’s visit to Washington to sign the agreement with Blinken, he had to pay an official visit to Moscow while he sent his deputy Kostanyan to Tehran.

The purpose of both trips was to update Armenia’s allies in Russia and Iran about the detailed nature of the US-Armenia agreement. Iranian Ambassador Sobhani further claimed that the strategic agreement signed between Armenia and the former Biden administration does not contradict Iran-Armenia ties and said that both countries intend to shield their ties from external influences.

It has been known since 2021 from reports in the Armenian press that Iran was secretly pursuing a strategic agreement with Armenia. In October 2023, Iran’s army chief of staff, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, offered to send Iranian military observers to the conditional border between Armenia and Azerbaijan in a meeting with the secretary of Armenia’s Security Council, Armen Grigoryan.

Enhanced regional connectivity fortifies Iran against US lead policies

Iran views Armenia as a regional proxy and buffer zone and has demonstrated repeatedly that it is against the normalisation process between Armenia and its neighbours Azerbaijan and Türkiye. For Iran, normalisation means becoming irrelevant and losing opportunities to play on contradictions to achieve its strategic goals. By speaking against the Zangezur corridor project that would link Azerbaijan to its exclave Nakhchivan and to Türkiye, Tehran is pushing Armenia into isolation from regional communications. If Armenia facilitated communication links via its territory it would secure geo-economic and geopolitical leverage.

Moreover, the Islamic Republic prefers Armenia to be heavily dependent on Tehran, so it hinders the peace process through backing the Armenian revanchist opposition. The invitation of the notorious Armenian revanchist cleric Bagrat Galstanyan to Iran was part of this goal, as Iran considers revanchist circles within Armenia as its main allies in preventing normalisation between Armenia and Azerbaijan as well as Armenia and Türkiye. The clerical regime in Tehran also aims to inflict geopolitical damage on the Azerbaijan-Israel strategic alliance and on the possibility of the establishment of an Azerbaijan-Israel-Türkiye strategic format.

Having opened the largest Iranian trade centre in the Armenian capital Yerevan, Iran aims to use Armenia as a springboard into the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), which would give Tehran access to new markets without the restrictions of Western sanctions. This would enhance Iran’s exports, particularly in industries such as petrochemicals, construction materials, and agriculture, which are key sectors critical to Iran’s IRGC-dominated economy.

The participation of IRGC-linked Iranian road construction companies in Armenia is also part of Tehran’s strategic attempts to advance its economic goals and increase IRGC revenues. Armenia has been a sanctions evasion hub for Iran over the years, allowing its banking system to be used to circumvent US sanctions, acquiring Western made airplanes on Iran’s behalf, as well as weapons which were used in Iraq against US forces.
Reports that Iran sold Armenia 500 million USD worth of weapons including Iranian drones are also concerning, as by arming Yerevan, the Islamic Republic is contributing to the deterioration of the fragile stability and security in the South Caucasus region.

The strategic agreement signed between Armenia and the former Biden administration does not contradict Iran-Armenia ties

With the re-election of Donald J. Trump as US president, the new administration announced the restart of the famous first Trump term “Maximum Pressure” policy on Iran. Israel has inflicted significant geopolitical defeats on Iran’s tentacles, or proxies, weakening them and dismantling their capabilities since the 7 October Hamas terrorist attacks on Israel and the subsequent war with Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Iranian geo-strategic defeat in Syria as a result of the fall of the Assad regime, which Israel and Türkiye contributed to, struck a significant blow to Iran’s expansionist hegemonic ambitions.

The Armenian revanchist circles within Armenia are the main allies of Iran

The Trump administration’s Maximum Pressure policy should not allow Tehran to circumvent sanctions via neighbouring countries like Armenia. Since Armenia has signed a strategic partnership agreement with the US, Washington must make it clear to Armenia that it should reduce its deeply embedded political, military and economic ties with Tehran. The Trump White House needs to prohibit Yerevan from signing a strategic partnership agreement with Iran and instead to pressure it to pursue normalisation with its neighbours and remove the obstacles to peace, such as the Armenian irredentist claims on Azerbaijani lands in its constitution.

Iran aims to use Armenia to undermine the common geo-strategic interests of US partners such as Israel, Türkiye and Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, Iranian Ambassador Sobhani bluntly stated that the Islamic Republic views Armenia-EU ties as a format to advance Iran’s interests and ties with the EU.

The Maximum Pressure policy and the Trump administration’s attempts to increase sanctions on Russia in order to bring it to the negotiating table require the curbing of Armenia’s re-export mechanism, which is helping Moscow to circumvent sanctions, as well as the downgrading of Armenia-Iran ties. Both are required if Yerevan truly wants to be a US partner.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.