Israel has not lived up to the Abraham Accords spirit and is set to suffer its consequences…

When the Abraham Accord was announced in the summer of 2020, the Muslim world was in flux. Many questions confronted it, and the answers were few and far between. Amid this confusion and chaos, some Gulf and Arab countries decided to establish diplomatic relations with Israel. However, in a matter of years, even before this love could blossom, like a narcissistic lover, Israel destroyed the relationship in its infancy. More importantly, it doesn’t seem to realize the scale of its loss.

The Abraham Accords marked the first normalization of relations between Israel and Arab countries since the 1990s.

The Abraham Accord unraveled dramatically as a series of agreements between Israel and several Arab nations in the Middle East. These agreements were brokered by the United States under President Donald Trump’s first administration and were announced in August 2020. These historic agreements represented the first normalization of relations between Israel and Arab countries since Israel’s peace treaties with Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994.

It started with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain signing the accords, officially recognizing Israel and establishing diplomatic, economic, and cultural ties on September 15, 2020. The ceremony was held at the White House. Sudan and Morocco also agreed to normalize relations with Israel later. The term “Abraham Accord” was chosen to reflect the shared patriarchal figure of Abraham in Jewish, Christian, and Muslim traditions, symbolizing the aim of fostering religious coexistence and cooperation.

The strategic vision motivating the Arab countries to join the Accords was a nuanced recognition of the Middle East’s shifting geopolitical realities. It envisaged the Accords to foster economic diversification, invite foreign investments, and establish the UAE as a regional diplomatic and financial hub. The UAE anticipated reaping its multifaceted benefits, including technological collaboration, enhanced security cooperation against regional threats like Iran, and access to new markets.

The Abraham Accords were considered a new paradigm for peace and cooperation in the Middle East. They initially promised to reshape the region’s geopolitical landscape and fostered diplomatic, economic, and cultural ties. More importantly, they appeared to diminish long-held hostilities, and presenting a united front against common regional threats (such as Iran).

The agreements aimed to foster economic diversification and establish the UAE as a regional diplomatic hub.

However, Israel’s brutal Gaza war since October 2023 has changed these dynamics. It has destroyed the efforts that participating Arab Muslim countries put in to give Israel a chance at peace. Besides the tragic scale of devastation and loss of Palestinian lives, the conflagration has made Israel suffer immensely if one chooses to look at it from an international strategic perspective. It has caused Israel’s regional isolation and enhanced its security challenges, which have economic ramifications and implications for broader Middle Eastern diplomacy formulations.

Israel desperately wanted the Abraham Accords. It realized that no matter how developed and prosperous a country becomes, it will suffer if it does not have friends in its neighbourhood. Indeed, this only enhances its diplomatic and strategic isolation. The Abraham Accords were the perfect scripted love letter that allowed Israel to gain new regional partners, most notably the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco.

The Accords allowed Israel to establish diplomatic ties with the Arab and Muslim worlds. The region’s prevalent anti-Israeli narrative, which had limited Israel’s participation in regional forums, got mellowed down. The delayed or prevented collaboration on critical issues such as security, energy, and water resources got a new boost. This far, any leverage Israel may have garnered from its formal diplomatic ties had been undermined.

The Abraham Accords promised significant economic collaboration for Israel; facilitating trade, promoting tourism, and encouraging investment. Cooperation in technology, agriculture, and water conservation presented opportunities for its companies to access new markets and develop joint ventures bolstering economic growth.

Since Gaza’s devastation, Israel stands to lose from the neighbouring markets and partnerships perspective. It has adversely affected the Israeli economic sectors that had planned for expanded trade. The decline in tourism from Arab states, which blossomed due to the Abraham Accords, could notably impact Israel’s service industry, including hospitality and retail. For global investors, adverse perception dampens sentiments and shows the region as unpredictable and unstable, further affecting Israel’s economic prospects.

Israel’s Gaza war in October 2023 significantly altered the dynamics of the Accords, leading to regional isolation.

The Abraham Accords formed part of a broader strategic effort, championed by the United States, to promote regional stability and counter malign influences. Conversely, their failure causes a vacuum, escalating geopolitical rivalries without a framework for resolution or even dialogue. This could complicate and prolong regional conflicts, with potential global repercussions.

The United States and other Western countries, almost blindly sympathetic toward Israel, may also find their roles challenged as the region’s peace brokers. They might reassess military aid and diplomatic support if regional instability impacts their national interests or becomes unpopular domestically due to continued hostilities due to Israeli actions or policies.

The failure of the Abraham Accords could impose significant security, economic, and diplomatic costs on Israel. At its best, the Accords presented an unprecedented opportunity to redefine Israel’s regional role and relationships. However, the love story that started with lots of promises has undone in one year everything it promised since its launch. History will remember these four years as the lost opportunity. Israel must take the blame and responsibility for the destruction.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.