As the world echoes with voices about climate goals in global conference halls, a quiet catastrophe is unfolding in the north of Pakistan and it is beginning to roar. The glaciers of the Himalayas, often dubbed as the Third Pole, are melting and so is Pakistan’s present and future stability. The sky-piercing Hindu-Kush–Himalaya–Karakoram (HKH) mountain range provides essential ecological services to over 240 million people directly and supports the livelihoods of 1.9 billion across downstream river basins.
Any thaw in these frozen reserves translates into a national emergency for Pakistan.
It acts as a primary source for 10 rivers in South Asia Including the Indus river which is the lifeline of Pakistan’s water, food, and energy security.Any thaw in these frozen reserves translates into a national emergency for Pakistan. Unfortunately, rising temperatures, are turning these snow-capped peaks into ticking time bombs. A 2025 study on Chitral’s glaciers reports a 31% retreat over the past 30 years, alongside a 1.6°C rise in temperature,a clear warning of the looming instability confronting Pakistan.
The consequences of this Himalayan thaw are cascading into multiple overlapping crises within Pakistan ranges from water,food,floods and displacement crisis to hydro power instability and regional tensions.Pakistan’s 90 percent of agriculture gets its water from the Indus river system that is glacier fed.However due to the disturbance in the ecology of the Himalayas glacier melt and cryosphere, Pakistan’s agricultural production is already decreased by 20 percent in the year 2022 according to FAO.Agriculture is the lifeline of Pakistan’s economy .it comprises 18 percent of the country’s GDP and absorbed 18 percents of its labour force.With glacier-fed flows becoming erratic , the crop calendar is collapsing. Which is already leading to acute unemployment, food insecurity along with weakening of the economy.
Another critical consequence of the Himalayan meltdown is the increasing formation of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) and their associated devastation. According to UNDP’s GLOF II Project, Pakistan harbors over 3,000 glacier-formed lakes, at least 33 of which are classified as hazardous. These lakes form when glaciers retreat,and leaved behind unstable water bodies that are dammed by fragile ice or loose debris.
These are literal time bombs ,capable of bursting at any moment, with extreme unpredictability and destructive power. The collapse of the Hassanabad bridge in Hunza in 2022 is a chilling example of how sudden and severe these floods can be. As global and regional temperatures continue to rise, the frequency and scale of GLOFs is expected to increase further heightening the risk of widespread flooding, infrastructure damage, and community displacement in Pakistan’s northern regions.
Pakistan’s hydropower output could decline by 15–20% by 2040 due to reduced glacial input.
Beyond floods and infrastructure collapse, the melting glaciers are also threatening Pakistan’s energy lifeline. Major dams in Pakistan including Tarbela, Mangla, and Neelum–Jhelum are heavily dependent on glacial flows from the Indus River system. These dams form the backbone of Pakistan’s energy infrastructure, as a significant portion of the country’s electricity comes from hydro power.However, the melting of Himalayan glaciers threatens this energy source in both the short and long term.
In the short run, excessive glacial melt and flood-induced overflows can damage dam infrastructure and force emergency spillway releases. This uncontrolled release of water can endanger downstream communities, especially during heavy monsoon rains. Conversely, during dry seasons, reduced snowpack means insufficient reservoir inflow,causing a sharp decline in hydropower generation, just when energy demand spikes due to heatwaves.
In the long run, the situation is even more alarming. According to WAPDA’s own Climate Risk Assessment, Pakistan’s hydropower output could decline by 15–20% by 2040 due to reduced glacial input. This poses a serious risk to a country already strangled by energy shortages, circular debt, and economic instability. A decline in hydro-power would force Pakistan to increase LNG and fossil fuel imports, placing further pressure on its fragile economy and increasing carbon emissions, creating a vicious climate-energy-economic cycle.
The crisis doesn’t end at Pakistan’s borders. The regional implications are equally alarming.The glacier melt poses a grave threat to the already fragile regional peace.In the absence of any Joint Glaciers Monitoring mechanism,countries like Pakistan,India,and china can slid into diplomatic and military standoff over the construction of upstream dam like the Kishanganga dam between Pakistan and India,unregulated water diversion, and worsening water insecurity.
These are literal time bombs, glacial lakes that can burst with extreme unpredictability.
In order to address this grave issue, a multi-pronged approach rooted in climate diplomacy, early warning systems, disaster preparedness, and regional cooperation is required. Pakistan must urgently invest in glacier monitoring mechanisms, robust early warning systems for GLOFs, and climate-resilient infrastructure capable of absorbing environmental shocks. At the regional level, the establishment of a Joint Himalayan Cooperation Authority involving Pakistan, India, and China is the need of the hour.
However, India’s growing weaponisation of water resources,as reflected in its recent unilateral suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty signals a troubling trend. In this context, Pakistan must be proactive, vigilant, and swift in both its policies and responses. We must learn from the disasters of our past and act with foresight,otherwise, we will not just suffer setbacks,we will slowly fade into destruction, consumed by the very climate crisis we failed to confront.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.
