ASAT weapons have emerged as potential threats in recent years owing to the rise in Min-console and Min-sat dependency in today’s sophisticated societies. Satellites are now important tools for communication, navigation, meteorology, and intelligence thus being valuable in every civil and defense application. Therefore, countries of the world have been putting their resources into ASAT systems that can either incapacitate or destroy satellites; thus, being a clear menace to space-based systems.

ASAT weapons can incapacitate or destroy satellites, posing significant risks to global communication, navigation, and defense systems.

The discussion on anti-satellite weapons is as old as space exploration. ASAT technology in fact can be dated back to the Cold War when the USA and Soviet Union practiced different activities with the intention of developing counter space to dismantle each other’s space resources. The first model of weapon system for ASAT was produced by the United States in 1958 but the most successful weapon system was the x-37 missile though the U.S. did not conduct the first ASAT missile intercept of a satellite until the 1980s.

The same was interesting with the Soviet Union: they also developed their own ASAT capabilities during this period. From the outset, ASAT weapons were mostly military-oriented but with the global expansion of space activities, the importance of ASAT weapon systems has further grown. Since the beginning of the post-Cold War period, space technology and assets were defined as valuable infrastructure for security and for economic development. China, Russia, and India have also advanced much in ASAT technologies and this raised more concern globally.

ASAT weapons can generally be categorized into three primary types: The classes in question include direct-ascent, co-orbital, and electronic warfare-based systems. These types represent the simplest class of ASAT weapons. A direct ascent ASAT refers to the shooting of a manned or unmanned missile/projectile at a target satellite within orbit. Often the missile is deployed from the ground while the target satellite is approached in straight-line fashion.

The first time this type of weapon was successfully tested was in 1985 when the U.S. launched an operation to eliminate its own satellite Solwind which was already inoperative. These weapons include launching a satellite into space that harms the targeted satellite through actual physical contact with the latter. While direct-ascent systems are simpler to construct and operate, co-orbital systems need higher levels of agility and accuracy in operational function.

China had shown the effectiveness of co-orbital ASAT weapons in 2007 when it used a ground-based missile to destroy one of its satellites thereby creating a debris cloud that elicited concern over space debris.

China’s 2007 ASAT test caused a massive space debris cloud, sparking global concerns over space safety and sustainability.

Contrary to conventional ASAT weapons that launch kinetic projects into space to blast satellites, electronic warfare ASAT weaponry acts on a satellite’s communication, navigation, or sensor system through interference, deception, or hacking. These non-kinetic approaches are generally less observable and are much more likely to remain relatively untraceable – a valuable trait in any country’s tool kit designed to unsettle adversary satellites without necessarily destroying them.

In the last twenty years or so, many nations have expended considerable effort in the development of ASAT systems. China, for instance, has made significant efforts for the absorption of upgraded anti-satellite technologies due to its space and military revolution program. China in the year 2007 launched an ASAT test where it demolished an old weather satellite that elicited major criticisms because of it producing a lot of space debris and its threats to other working satellites.

Russia too has exercised continued push in the development of ASAT capabilities including systems employing a technique involving direct ascent and those that are of an electronic Warfare nature. According to the Russian government, space stability is a component of astute defense; thus, it has been developing space response systems for years. Furthermore, in 2020, Russia successfully conducted a test of the ‘PL-19 Nudol Anti-Satellite Missile System that is said to fire operational satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO).

India which has also attempted an ASAT test on 27, May 2019 also comes as a rising power in the ASAT world. India has also targeted its own satellite launching operation called ‘Mission Shakti’ in which it deliberately brought down one Low Earth Orbit satellite using a direct-ascent missile. The ASAT space introduction by India made the public and especially the neighbors continue with more deliberations on the strategic and environmental implications of the weaponization of space.

The complication of ASAT weapons has brought in several strategic consequences for the military and civil controllers of space. Cognitive function for military forces: the capacity of detriment or eliminating enemy satellites can shift the equation of forces. Satellites serve as critical tools in the military through the conveyance of needs such as Communication, Navigation aid, Surveillance, and Warning. The characteristic that gives one nation an advantage over the other during a conflict is the fact that it can blind the enemy’s command, control, communications, intelligence, or other systems that guide its weapons.

Electronic warfare ASAT weapons can disrupt satellite systems covertly, increasing risks without direct destruction or detection.

On the civilian side, when it comes to ASAT weapons the threats shown are more profound. The targeting of satellites therefore puts the globe at a big risk due to its impact on communication, navigation such as GPS, weather predictions, and even scientific investigations. Also, ASAT tests can cause the formation of very large space debris, which may be hazardous to working satellites and space exploration in the long run.

For example, the Chinese in 2007 conducted an ASAT test that provoked the creation of a great number of space debris, some of which orbit the Earth even now and can harm another spacecraft. The increasing trend in ASAT capabilities also gives rise to the space arms race, in which countries need to match the others regarding such capabilities.

This is not only a primary factor that raises the chance of conflict but also a condition that complicates the setting of stable and efficient arms control in space. Space has been increasingly used by military powers, which means that outer space could be the fifth warfare domain.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.