Looks like the final round of the high-stakes and high-risk game is here. A populist Frankenstein nurtured over decades, created for the sole goal of establishing an over-centralized unitary state using populist charisma has backfired and is out to eat up the creators and hellbent on taking the entire system down along with the country.

Let us look at the situation fast deteriorating as we speak.

After a series of missteps since his removal after he fell out with the establishment in April 2022, Imran has embarked upon the path of suicidal brinkmanship. The dissolution of Punjab and KP assemblies aimed at creating powerful provincial governments before the general elections and rigging the National Assembly elections afterward through them didn’t work. It actually backfired and created an unprecedented caretaker setup in those provinces for over a year and the federal caretaker setup for almost six months.

Imran Khan… embarked upon the path of suicidal brinkmanship.

Imran Khan, advised by Gen Faiz Hameed, who he wanted to appoint the Army Chief, tried to stop the appointment of General Asim Munir and used all type of machinations and street actions but failed. His last most important action was to spur a mutiny in the armed forces on May 9, 2023. A coup d’état against the sitting Army Chief was the sole aim of the attacks on the military and intelligence installations.

After that, embroiled with multiple criminal cases including embezzlement and sedition, the only success story of the incarcerated leader is his social media prowess and the ability to use higher judiciary, the high court and the Supreme Court to get unprecedented relief for him, his current wife and other party leaders. That situation changed after Qazi Faez Isa became the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court.

The democratic-minded CJ tried to carry the entire court with him by embracing the Practice and Procedure Act, unlike the previous CJs who relied on like-minded judges. The remnants of the old judicial system however successfully used the same democratic mechanism against the CJ by delaying bench formations on major constitutional cases that go potentially go against Imran Khan and his party.

The recent protests announced by Imran Khan in Islamabad and Lahore are his last-ditch effort with strategic and tactical calculations.

It is that backdrop that when everybody saw that the higher judiciary was being used as a sidekick to pull Imran out of the mess he himself threw in, the government and the establishment started thinking of judicial reforms snatching the new tools from the incarcerated leader licking his wounds in Adiala. Imran also saw the elements in the higher judiciary as a helping hand to protect him from the major cases against him especially the May 9 related cases with the potential of a military trial against him.

When the government made a botched effort to amend articles of the constitution after it had already changed election law, it really pushed incarcerated leader and his party into a frenzy for survival. Earlier Imran had directed his party to hold large public meetings in major cities like Islamabad and Lahore and asked Chief Minister Punjab to throw all provincial government resources to make a maximum impact. The reluctant Chief Minister tried but failed and earned the ire of the incarcerated leader.

With government in overdrive to push the legislative agenda aimed at creating a federal constitutional court after the reversal of Supreme Court decision under Imran’s favourite Supreme Court judges under CJ Bandyal in May 2022 effectively stopping defections at all costs, Imran has just gone bonkers and is making a last-ditch effort to create major chaos in the country. The recent protests announced by Imran Khan in Islamabad and Lahore are his last-ditch effort with strategic and tactical calculations.

The strategic goal is stopping the government from the constitutional amendments and somehow retaining pro Imran judiciary that can help him come out of jail, overturn the results of February 8 elections and bring him back to power.

Imran is using the time frame before October 25 to somehow delay the Legislative train. He is using the provincial government as a pawn in this chess move. He would be happy to sacrifice KP government in the process. Sacking of KP government serves many purposes. It helps incompetent provincial government from peoples’ wrath as the performance of the party is next to Zilch despite remaining in power for over a decade. The sacking gives the party a martyr status.

Soft towards TTP and Afghan Taliban, Imran has used the provincial government as a major blackmailing tool against the federal government and the military establishment to seek relief from the grinding wheel of the prosecutorial system denying his existence. Imran is using two calendar dates as bargaining chips.

Imran is using two calendar dates as bargaining chips: October 15… and October 25, the date of retirement of the current Chief Justice.

October 15, the day the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in Islamabad and October 25, the date of retirement of the current Chief Justice Qazi Faez Isa. Imran wants chaos and bloodshed NOW to maximize his bargaining to push the government to stop Legislative Train and scathing of the pro Imran judiciary.

Leaders of PTI have now publicly said they will go ahead with the mayhem in Islamabad and specially Punjab till Imran himself calls off the protest. One of the leaders, Zain Qureshi, the son for former Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi has said in the talk shows that his party may postpone the protest if the government stops the Legislative Train till October 25, effectively spilling the beans what their target is.

The government has now deployed an army under Article 245 of the constitution in the federal capital as well as the entire province of Punjab. The article denies that high courts, packed with pro-Imran judges, can provide relief under Article 199 of the Constitution.

As things stand, the confrontation is imminent and so is the bloodshed. The only saving grace for the federal, Punjab government, and the security establishment would be to finish this round really quick and not invite the anger of the people who are facing tremendous hardships under siege due to roadblocks, and suspension of cellular and mobile internet.

Whosoever uses peoples anger to their advantage will be the winner.