The recent fall of Syria’s autocratic leader Bashar al-Assad has been a subject of widespread speculation in the contemporary global forum. While the people of the Fertile Crescent are overwhelmed with joy and are eager to welcome a new government, international experts and social scientists tend to explore the legitimacy of this newly established government brought by groups that led the rebel movements, specifically the Turkey-backed Hayat-Tahir Al-Sham (HTS) that previously owed allegiance to Al-Qaeda and its controversial leader Abu-Mohammad Al-Jolani.

HTS, a rebel group with a controversial history, leads Syria’s new government, raising questions about its legitimacy and intentions.

The first and foremost ambiguity arises when we notice a bizarre coincidence between the announcement of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire and the sudden offensive launched by the rebel groups in Northern Aleppo. These operations gained momentum progressively, and almost imperceptibly, the world witnessed how within 11 days the rebels took over Damascus, with Assad fleeing the country.

Although The Assad regime wasn’t pristine, his authoritarian rule spoke for itself when thousands of political prisoners were released from the notorious Sednayya prison. However, the support Assad rendered to the Axis of Resistance and the Palestinian cause due to Syria’s strategic location was partially unrivaled.

With the Assad regime in power, it provided integral logistical support to Hamas and the Palestinian factions and also ensured itself as an integral linchpin between Iran and Hezbollah. Leveraging it as a land bridge Iran was able to assist Hezbollah in transitioning to a formidable military force against Israel.

Allegations of Israeli-Turkish backing for HTS fuel concerns about regional geopolitical strategies and sectarian divides.

The assiduity of the decades-long established axis was seen in jeopardy when reports of Israeli coordination came up behind the vastly expanding rebel operations, where Israel claimed it had direct contact with the rebel groups in Syria, including HTS. Was this a strategy to trigger sectarian strife between the Sunni-led rebel groups, and Shia Militias that Iran has backed for the better part of 4 decades?

This query was further strengthened when in December 2024, preceding the fall of Damascus a CNN interview with Jolani was broadcast, where he labeled his allegiance to extremist Islamic organizations such as ISIS and Al-Qaeda as a phase of his life, while still having a $10 Million bounty on his head on account of the war crimes he committed in early days of ISIS.

Hence, let me ask the million-dollar question. Is the HTS a liberal reincarnation of ISIS and Al Qaeda? If so, you would have to laud the pragmatism of the United States and its Military Industrial Complex. Assad was truly the Queen of the Middle East’s Chess. Whether the oncoming new HTS established government is Zionist-backed is a separate question, but how it serves Uncle Sam’s interest is a point to be pondered.

The way Russia was defeated in the Middle East after the decades-long backing of the Assad regime truly depicts the tacticity of the United States’ strategy in the Middle East. Although the Russian Airforce was seen in full swing in the initial stages of the offensive, their strategies gradually came to a standstill when the Syrian Army retreated and bloodlessly withdrew from cities such as Homs and Hama, which signaled the Army was not willing to fight. This further emulsified the weight of the offensive coming from Rebels.

The return of Syrian refugees depends on the government’s ability to foster stability, economic growth, and minority inclusion.

The Syrian Civil War succeeding the Arab Spring of 2011, triggered a mass exodus of Syrians into the neighboring countries and caused a significant demographic shift in majorly populated areas. If the Syrian refugees choose to return home, how will the Islamic government, lay the foundation of an economically stable Syria? Will the funds rendered by the United States and other major powers create an environment of Peacebuilding?

Syria is home to a significant diversity of various sects and religions, including the Druze, Christians, Alawites, and many more. How will the Islamist government ensure the minority’s security?

In light of recent events, Israel’s recent invasion almost immediately after the fall of the Assad regime in the Quentiera region seems to be a move that is premeditated, and that seeks to serve their messianic vision of ‘Greater Israel.’ If the HTS was established with the backing of an Israel-Turkey Alliance, then it raises significant questions about the legitimacy of the government and its main ambitions.

Is the fall of Assad a new beginning for the Syrian People or is the worst yet to come?

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.