The election of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the US has ushered in a new debate about the durability and credibility of the World Order. Trump’s unilateral withdrawal from the World Health Organization (WHO), claims of annexing Canada as the US 51st state, reclaiming the control of the vital Panama Canal, changing the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, and, taking hold of the Gaza Strip under the pretext of reconstruction, imposition of tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, and preparations of revoking the legal status of migrants has challenged the principles of the post-World War II international system. But what is world order in itself and how is Trump challenging it?
Trump’s short-term populist policies are compromising America’s long-term strategic dominance in global affairs.
The concept of world order, defined as a set of guiding principles that regulates interaction among entities to achieve particular goals and objectives, is as old as society itself. An order encompasses rules, norms, values, and institutions meant to achieve security, stability and growth.
In the process of shaping world order, the powerful and weaker states have incentives to join it. The weaker states seek to ensure their security and protect themselves from potential aggression given their power disparities with the stronger states, while the powerful states structure the order in a way that suits their long-term interests.
However, during the formative age and throughout evolution of the order, the powerful states have to make concessions to the weaker ones for long-term objectives. These concessions can take the form of giving aids, loans, diplomatic support, military assistance if needed, exchange programs and other potential favors. Although such measures may appear to compromise the short-term objectives of the hegemon, they are instrumental in securing long-term influence.
For instance, the American aids and military support to foreign countries may invoke domestic resentment due to perceived economic burdens. However, these strategic investments enhance America’s global influence, maintain alliances which are crucial for its hegemony, and sustain its leadership role in international affairs.
What basically Trump is doing is compromising America’s long-term objectives for short-term domestic populist gains. His unilateral withdrawals from international regimes have raised concerns about the international process that has for long sustained the US hegemony.
Withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership allowed China to strengthen its economic influence through the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.
The tariffs imposed on Canada, Mexico and China are alienating the US allies and creating space for China to dominate the world order by taking parallel initiatives. These actions risk isolating the US on the international stage, weakening multilateral frameworks, and eroding the very ideas that have underpinned its dominance since World War II.
On January 23, 2017, Donald Trump officially withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership which was a trade agreement between 12 Pacific Rim economies. Trump, for populist gains, believed that the agreement had destroyed local job market. He said, “The Trans-Pacific Partnership is another disaster done and pushed by special interests who want to rape our country, just a continuing rape of our country”.
According to the research by Peterson Institute for National Economies, the deal would have increased US exports by $123 billion but had swung to a $2 billion loss. According to a US International Trade Commission assessment, the Trans-Pacific Partnership would have boosted the country’s GDP by $42.7 billion by 2032, if Trump had not withdrawn.
To be more precise, the major objective of the TPP was to sustain American economic dominance and shape the rules governing trade in the Asia-Pacific region by uniting the various trading partners under American leadership to counter China’s expanding economic sway.
In response to American withdrawal, 15 Asia-Pacific nations signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) by the end of 2020. The RCEP, which prominently includes China, went into effect on January 1st of that year and compressed regulatory harmonization and tariff reductions aimed at promoting trade among its member nations, significantly increasing China’s role in shaping regional trade apparatus.
By isolating the U.S. from multilateral institutions, Trump is eroding the very foundations of American global leadership.
For short-term populist gains, Trump is compromising the long-term strategic objectives of the US, and international standards that hold the US as the sole superpower. Similar to his first term, Trump once again demonstrates a willingness to unilaterally challenge international standards, as evidenced by his recent withdrawal from the WHO and the Paris Agreement which are becoming worse, as the tectonic plates.
That hold the US unipolarity is also trembling with the rise of China, Russian resurgence, and the formation of parallel institutions that give considerable say to China. In sum, Trump’s short-term policies may have appealed to his domestic vote base, but they have come at the cost of eroding the very foundations of the global order that sustained American dominance.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.
