Pakistan has successfully organized the 23rd annual meeting of the SCO Council of Heads of Government, which was attended by two global powers – Russia and China – along with top leaders and high officials from other member and observer states. India’s External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar also participated in the meeting. His visit was of worthy-discussion because of strained Indo-Pak relations, as this was of the first by an Indian top diplomat to Pakistan in nearly a decade. However, he was here to represent India as a SCO member, which is a multilateral club. Jaishankar also emphasized in a media talk “But I do want to say it will be for a multilateral event. I am not going there to discuss India-Pakistan relations,”. He further added that he would attend the meeting as a “good member of the SCO”.
In the same fashion, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar stated, while welcoming his Indian counterpart with “full protocol”, that this was to meet his duty as ‘a good host’. Neither India nor Pakistan asked for bilateral meeting during the SCO summit. The analysts generally believed this gathering would not thaw tense relations between Pakistan and India. Similarly, Dr Maliha Lodhi while taking to Samaa TV stated that Jaishankar’s visit shall not be viewed as breakthrough in Pakistan-India relations, as he was attending a multilateral forum.
Keeping in mind the statements, would this moot bring any improvement in Indo-Pak relations, which have hit a historically low? Does Indian external affairs minister’s visit have no significance? Answers to these and other similar questions is hard to point in a flat ‘yes’ or ‘no’.
To solve this puzzle, the SCO objectives must be kept in mind. One of the goals says it aims to foster ‘mutual trust, friendship and good neighborliness between the member states”. The realization of this goal is dependent on the normalization of Indo-Pak relations. Moreover, the SCO leadership foresees regional integration and prosperity, which is dependent on cordial relations between India and Pakistan.
The SCO objectives must be kept in mind. One of the goals says it aims to foster ‘mutual trust, friendship and good neighborliness between the member states”.
The future endeavors of the SCO depend on resolving bilateral issues between the member states. Smooth and predictable bilateral relations among the member states reinforce the functioning of any organization. Therefore, the future achievements of SCO depend upon normal relations between India and Pakistan.
Pakistan as a responsible member stands for developing cordial relations by discussing long-awaited issues like Kashmir. India is also expected to response positively by setting aside its stubborn and egoistic approach. However, New Delhi must realize that its ‘hegemonic’ designs in the region shall never materialize. The need of the hour is to move ahead and resolve bilateral issues as per international law and global norms. Hopefully, India shall not try to fix the bilateral issues unilaterally, as it did in August 2019 by abrogating the Article 370.
At the same time, cost-benefit analysis is the guiding star of foreign policy decision making. It is imperative that Islamabad and New Delhi should realize the importance of removing irritants and develop cordial relations. Resolving bilateral issues and playing their role in regional integration and prosperity are in the short- and long-term interests of both the states.
But to achieve the desired objectives, Russia and China being global powers and leading SCO members can mediate between Pakistan and India, the two nuclear armed states. In this regard, Russia has the leverage of utilizing its closeness with India while China can influence the process through its friendly ties with Pakistan. To foster ‘mutual trust and good neighborliness’ between the historical rivals is a win-win situation for all the stakeholders of SCO.
Russia and China being global powers and leading SCO members can mediate between Pakistan and India, the two nuclear armed states.
In this regard, China should take lead, as it mediated for breakthrough between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Being a global economic power and the SCO leader, China is in a position to act as a mediator between these South Asian rivals.
One must remember that China’s foreign policy is based on a dual approach – enhancing its influence in the existing institutions like IMF and UN, and creating its own institutions like SCO and AIIB.
Therefore, China must mitigate tensions between India and Pakistan to make the SCO a success story. By doing so, China will qualify the litmus test of becoming the regional leader. The history of SAARC testifies that bilateral tensions of India and Pakistan has been key cause of its inability to be an effective and successful regional organization. Hence, China should not let the SCO being hit by the SAARC syndrome. The future achievements of SCO are dependent on leadership role of China and improved Indo-Pak ties.
Although Jaishankar only attended the multilateral forum, it is a positive development. Sanity prevailed and he did not deteriorate the relations further by making irresponsible statements against Pakistan. Rather he stressed the need for addressing challenges between neighbors through “honest dialogue and cooperation”. Moreover, he reportedly discussed the visits of cricket teams with his counterpart Dar. The summit concluded with ray of hope not only for the ‘Shanghai Spirit’, but also for normalization of relations between India and Pakistan.
