The recent riots in Bangladesh have drawn significant attention both domestically and internationally, shedding light on the deep-rooted issues plaguing the nation. The unrest, initially sparked by confrontations between the student wing of the Awami League, the Bangladesh Chhatra League, and protesting students, reveals a broader and more complex narrative. This turmoil underscores the ongoing conflict within Bangladesh, rooted in the establishment’s policies and the increasing authoritarianism of Sheikh Hasina’s virtually one-party rule.

To understand the present unrest, it is crucial to look back at the historical context. On January 3, 2024, Raqim Al-Haruf wrote about the Bangla Krashik Saramak Awami League (Buxal) and its transformation under Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who became president for life and established a one-party system in Bangladesh. This historical precedent is now being echoed in Sheikh Hasina’s governance, where similar authoritarian practices are being implemented, leading to growing public dissatisfaction. Sheikh Hasina’s government has been criticized for its heavy-handed approach and suppression of dissent. The protests reflect a growing sentiment against her administration, which many see as prioritizing power retention over democratic principles and citizens’ welfare.

The societal discontent is further fueled by the increasing influence of India on Bangladesh’s domestic and foreign policies, perceived by many as compromising national sovereignty.

One of the critical drivers of the riots is the economic struggle faced by millions of students in Bangladesh. With over 18 million students grappling for jobs, the country’s largest garment industry, despite its $40 billion export revenue and employment of 4 million people, cannot meet the employment demands of these students. This economic frustration has ignited the flames of unrest, reflecting broader societal issues beyond mere job scarcity. The anger among the youth is not solely about the lack of employment opportunities. It stems from systemic discrimination and the perceived favoritism towards a specific group since the fall of Dhaka. Many believe that since the fall of Dhaka, Bangladesh has fallen under the invisible control of India, exacerbating feelings of disenfranchisement and inequality.

The garment industry, which is a cornerstone of Bangladesh’s economy, has not been able to absorb the vast number of educated youths entering the job market each year. Despite being a major exporter, the industry’s growth has not translated into adequate employment opportunities. This disconnect has led to widespread frustration among the youth, who see their futures dimming in a stagnant job market. The government’s inability to create new job opportunities or support industries that can absorb this labor force has only heightened the sense of betrayal and anger among the populace.

The current protests also highlight deep-seated social discrimination and historical resentments. The main demand of the protesters was to end the special privileges granted to those who fought against Pakistan in 1971. This movement is largely driven by students whose elders were not part of the 1971 unrest, yet they feel the repercussions of that era.

The ruling government, under Sheikh Hasina, has leveraged these historical privileges to maintain power, further alienating a significant portion of the population.

The societal divide is marked by those who have historically benefited from the post-independence privileges and those who have been marginalized. The resentment has been building over decades, with the latter group feeling increasingly sidelined in the political and economic spheres. The protests are a manifestation of these accumulated grievances, where the younger generation, who did not experience the liberation war, feel particularly disenfranchised by a system that they believe is unjust and discriminatory. The situation has deteriorated to such an extent that even the official broadcaster has gone offline, a measure only previously seen during significant upheavals like the Egyptian revolution in 2011. This media blackout highlights the severity of the government’s crackdown on dissent and the escalating conflict within Bangladeshi society.

Sheikh Hasina’s government is perceived as heavily inclined towards India, with actions that reinforce this alliance often coming at the expense of national interests. For instance, to appease India, Sheikh Hasina prematurely ended her visit to China and announced the handing over of the 414 km long Teesta Water Project to India. This move, aimed at placating India, has further fueled public anger and the perception of Bangladesh as a subordinate state under Indian influence. Economically, Bangladesh’s garment industry relies heavily on raw materials from China, while India remains the largest buyer of Bangladeshi products in Asia. By aligning closely with India, Sheikh Hasina’s administration is seen as making Bangladesh’s economy increasingly dependent on its neighbor, thereby undermining economic sovereignty.

Most of the raw material in Bangladesh’s garment industry comes from China, while India is the largest buyer of Bangladeshi products in Asia. It buys $15 billion worth of various products from Bangladesh annually, and Sheikh Hasina deliberately wants to make Bangladesh’s economy more under India’s influence. Along with this, it is also helping India to fulfill its ambitions in the Indian Ocean.

It is quite clear that India’s ambitions in the Indian Ocean are aimed at countering China’s Indian Ocean policy. It has a part from the eastern coast of Africa to Australia.

Bangladesh’s inclusion in the Colombo Security Conclave, alongside Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Mauritius, further cements its alignment with India’s regional strategy. The main objective of this organization is to maintain security and stability in the Indian Ocean under India’s interests, countering Chinese influence. This strategic alignment is perceived as another step towards making Bangladesh a “country state” under India’s auspices, where the local ruler is assured of security while the external power holds significant control over national affairs. In June, Bangladesh formally requested China to invest in the Teesta Water Project, but later handed it over to India to demonstrate its loyalty to the latter. This strategic decision underscores the complex geopolitical dynamics at play, with Bangladesh caught between its economic dependence on China and its political alignment with India. The move to align with India in the Indian Ocean’s security framework also suggests a deeper strategic partnership aimed at countering China’s influence in the region.

Sheikh Hasina’s government has actively sought to align Bangladesh’s security and economic interests with India, further consolidating this relationship. The agreements signed during her visits to India, which included cooperation in maritime security, economy, space, and telecommunications, highlight the depth of this partnership.

This alignment has not been without controversy, as it has fueled the perception that Bangladesh’s sovereignty is being compromised in favor of Indian interests.

The riots in Bangladesh are a manifestation of longstanding grievances, economic struggles, and political tensions. The confluence of historical resentments, social discrimination, economic dependency, and geopolitical alignments has created a volatile environment. As public sentiment continues to agitate against Sheikh Hasina’s government and its perceived subservience to India, the unrest is likely to persist. Addressing these issues requires not only economic reforms and job creation but also a commitment to democratic principles and national sovereignty. Without such measures, the discontent in Bangladesh will remain a significant challenge for the current administration. To move forward, the government must recognize the multifaceted nature of the unrest and take comprehensive steps to address the root causes. This includes creating inclusive economic policies that provide job opportunities for the youth, ensuring social justice by addressing historical grievances, and maintaining a balanced foreign policy that safeguards national interests. Only through such holistic measures can Bangladesh hope to achieve stability and peace in the long term.