The enormity of the students’ movement and its impact has yet to be fully appreciated in Bangladesh and the region. What has transpired in Bangladesh in recent weeks will have repercussions far beyond its borders and should not be written off as a random phenomenon. The ripples of political evolution and dramatic turn of events will be felt across the South Asian region in particular and the world in general.

Led by the young student community from across the political and social divide, not only represents a revolt against autocratic and dictatorial politics but also against elite capture, personality cults, and hereditary politics of select families masquerading as democratic dispensations. What is significant is the complete rejection of India’s quasi-colonial stranglehold on Bangladesh since 1971.

The enormity of the students’ movement and its impact has yet to be fully appreciated in Bangladesh and the region.

The political cataclysm resulting from the protests is not a sudden and instantaneous occurrence. It is the result of stifled political grievances of Bangladeshis over decades and repression by Sheikh Hasina’s government over the past 15 years. Once considered a savior of Bangladesh’s democracy, Hasina became an authoritarian leader stifling individual civic rights, cracking down on freedom of expression, extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, and the use of other forms of torture against dissidents and critics.

The growing anger over these injustices, rampant corruption, and rising cronyism remained largely masked by a significant improvement in the economy under Hasina’s leadership. Finally, allegations of institutional electoral rigging and blatant misuse of power by Hasina to secure the fourth consecutive term in January proved the last straw that broke the camel’s back. This revolt is not just against politicians, it is a clarion call to clean up the entire system of unconstitutional elements and practices of state institutions including the judiciary and bureaucracy.

There is cautious optimism as Bangladesh struggles with the repercussions of protests. As Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus leads a confident interim government, it remains to be seen whether Bangladesh succeeds in establishing stability, or whether tumultuous political unrest will enter a new phase of uncertainty.

This revolt is not just against politicians, it is a clarion call to clean up the entire system of unconstitutional elements.

The first test of the interim government will be to restore order, bring to justice those responsible for committing excesses during the protests, initiate the institutional and structural reforms required to restore the democratic credentials of Bangladesh and ensure free and fair elections at the earliest to meet the high expectations of the people. If these expectations are met, it will complete the political evolution and we may witness a different Bangladesh emerge, consistent with its liberal, secular, and democratic ethos. If not, it has the potential to divide the people and plunge Bangladesh into chaos and civil war.

A long drawn-out interim government is not an option as that may provide space to not only the un-constitutional forces to manipulate the political vacuum but also enable the extremist ideologies to carve a niche for themselves which may not augur well for the country. The greatest fear is the rise of fundamentalist ideologies that ay spread to other parts of the region.

Lack of political stability will also increase Bangladesh’s economic conditions that could disturb the economic stability of the entire South Asia region.  Bangladesh’s economic performance had enhanced its position nearly to the rank of an “Asian Tiger.” Bangladesh became India’s largest trade partner in South Asia, and India became the second-largest trading partner for Bangladesh in Asia after China.

The greatest fear is the rise of fundamentalist ideologies that may spread to other parts of the region.

These strong trade ties, boosted under Sheikh Hasina’s pro-India rule, nurtured India’s dream of building a regional subgroup centered on trade from the Bay of Bengal region and making a free trade area connecting Myanmar, Thailand, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka who are members of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic cooperation. Therefore, the ouster of Hasina is a setback for Indian influence, security trade, and the dream of connectivity using Bangladesh as the connecting node to East Asia and beyond.

Hasina had rebuilt roads and bridges linking Dhaka with Kolkata and Agartala, renewed railway links, and enabled access to cargo ships on the Brahmaputra River and its tributaries. Security cooperation also increased between India and Bangladesh as Hasina assisted India in quelling the rebellion in Assam by refusing to provide safe refuge to rebels from across the border.

India is now desperately trying to implicate Pakistan by insinuating that Pakistan and China were abetting the protests.

However, what is significant to note in the regional and international geopolitics and geostrategic competition is that she favored India over China for a $1bn river development project and secured a deal with the Indian Adwani Group in the power sector for a whopping $ 1.7 billion. By side-lining China in the large development projects Hasina certainly sent a strong message of support for India making Bangladesh stand with India and Western powers in their competition with China for political and economic interest in this strategically important region. Having said that, it would be erroneous to believe that any new dispensation in Bangladesh would be inimical to India. Bangladesh’s geographical proximity will continue to oblige it to have friendly and somewhat cooperative relations with India.

Concerned about the loss of their trusted partner in Bangladesh, India is now desperately trying to implicate Pakistan by insinuating that Pakistan and China were abetting the protests. These false allegations completely ignore and undermine the basic issues of governance and democracy which were simmering under the surface for decades and were effectively vented out in the form of apolitical uprising of the youth. There are lessons to be learned from the events in Bangladesh, not only for India but also for the other South Asian nations.