The ongoing Russia- Ukraine war has laid bare the important role that drones can play in modern aerial warfare. In the wake of the war, states around the world have now realised the growing importance of drones. But it is not only the states that have realised this importance; rather, many non-state armed groups are also now increasingly cognisant of the importance of drones and are using them in their operations. To the detriment of Pakistan, the “Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)” is the latest entrant into this trend.

TTP’s drone attacks in North Waziristan signal a dangerous shift in terrorist tactics, posing new security challenges for Pakistan.

The non-state armed groups have sought to acquire drone technology for long, and they have largely succeeded in the endeavour by acquiring small and cheap drones. The most striking example of this phenomenon surfaced in January 2024, when Kataib Hezbollah, an Iraq-based militant group, carried out a drone attack on an American outpost in Jordan, which claimed the lives of three US soldiers.

However, it is worth noting that this was not the first incident of its kind. In fact, the active use of drones by a non-state armed group can be traced back to at least 2016, when the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) employed drones in its operations against US-led coalition forces in Iraq. At the time, ISIS’s drone program was described as the “most daunting problem” being faced by the coalition forces.

The Afghanistan-based TTP is the latest entrant into this fray, much to the detriment of Pakistan. In the last two months, there have been six terror attacks by TTP using quadcopter-borne IEDs to target security transport and facilities in North Waziristan. The Quadcopters were modified to carry bottles that were filled with explosives weighing between 500 to 700 grams, which were then detonated with the help of grenades. Furthermore, to add to its lethality, ball bearings were also added, much like the Iranian Kamikaze drones.

How TTP has employed these drones is very nascent at the moment as evident from the fact that the attacks have not caused much of a physical impact in terms of destruction. However, this does not mean that the threat can be dismissed, especially considering the fact that with each passing day, the armed groups are deploying these platforms with increasing sophistication.

As leading drone expert Paul Lushenko has long warned, sophisticated drone attacks by non-state armed groups are no longer a matter of “if,” but rather “when.” The same can be said of TTP in the context of Pakistan. Should such a situation arise in the future, it will pose grave security concerns for Pakistan.

Pakistan must deploy anti-drone systems like the Spider Anti Drone System to protect critical infrastructure from aerial terrorist threats.

To pre-empt such an eventuality, on its part, Pakistan can take several steps. First, it needs to ramp up the deployment of anti-drone systems such as the indigenously developed “Spider Anti Drone System”, for the physical interception of hostile drones across the country. While it is practically impossible to install such systems in every corner of the country, they can be installed strategically in specific areas to protect critical infrastructure, including airports, nuclear power plants, government buildings such as national and provincial assemblies, and military bases.

In addition to that, Pakistan can also establish mobile anti-drone units that can be equipped with portable jamming devices. These units would respond swiftly to drone threats in remote or unexpected locations. A relevant example of this approach can be seen in Israel, which has deployed the mobile “Drone Dome” system to intercept hostile drones.

Furthermore, Pakistan also needs to refine and further improve its intelligence-gathering capabilities, specifically those concerning the tracking of acquisition and the potential deployment of drones by the non-state armed groups. Towards this end, Pakistan can establish a dedicated task force within its intelligence apparatus that could specifically monitor and pre-empt this emerging threat. An illustrating example in this regard is the Joint Improvised-Threat Defeat Organization (JIDO), which was created as a task force by the US to gather intelligence on the increasing use of drones by non-state actors such as ISIS in Iraq.

A dedicated intelligence task force is essential to track and pre-empt drone acquisition and deployment by non-state armed groups.

There is an urgent need to rethink Pakistan’s counterterrorism strategy, which at the moment is primarily oriented to counter ground-based terrorist threats, owing to the fact that, historically, most of the terror threats the country has faced have originated from the land domain.

However, there is now a need to expand this approach by inculcating the rising terrorist threats from above in the light of the growing use of drones by armed groups.  Failure to adapt in the face of this evolving threat landscape could jeopardise Pakistan’s security and undermine its hard-earned gains in the fight against terrorism for the past two decades.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.