Mawlawi Amanuddin Mansoor, Taliban Omari Corps commander recently said in a gathering of his troops in Aq Shahi district of Badakhshan province that if he is allowed to do so he can capture Tajikistan. He mockingly addressed Tajiks in his speech and brushed aside the possibility of Russian intervention, saying Russia is preoccupied with the war in Ukraine. These remarks from a senior Taliban military figure, underscores the group’s expansionist thinking and also goes to show that the Taliban have no regard for regional stability.

The world must pay attention to Taliban’s expansionist dreams and this could potentially be a source of danger for the region of Central Asia

It is a stark reminder of the Taliban ambitions and the fact that the Taliban were insincere in the promises they made to avoid interference with other countries. Taliban were directed by the international community to concentrate on domestic governance and not present any threat to other neighboring states when they seized power in Afghanistan. Mansoor’s comments, however, contradict the commitments that the regime has made and reveals its fangs. The world must pay attention to Taliban’s expansionist dreams and this could potentially be a source of danger for the region of Central Asia.

Tajikistan has been reluctant to see Taliban back in government because of its historical backing of the Northern Alliance which battled the Taliban in the 1990’s

Capturing Tajikistan is not just a boast and it reflects Taliban’s ideological and strategic ambitions. The Taliban commanders are recklessly inviting conflict by portraying Tajikistan as weak and dismissing Russia as a deterrent. Such rhetoric does not only lead to bad relations between Afghanistan and Tajikistan but also jeopardizes the regional security dynamics. Tajikistan has been reluctant to see Taliban back in government because of its historical backing of the Northern Alliance which battled the Taliban in the 1990s.

The lessons from the Taliban’s unchecked rise to power is that concessions to radical groups without the enforcement mechanisms in place only breeds more instability

Mansoor asserts that he could make such declarations because of the Taliban’s view of legitimacy on the back of the Doha Agreement. The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan was aided by a deal that saw the Taliban acknowledged as a legitimate government while letting them get away with whatever actions they took. It has emboldened the Taliban leaders who make provocative statements and even consider aggressive military posturing because they do not consider that they are accountable to anyone. In the same breath, the world must understand that appeasement of extremist groups only gives to them something to hang their ambitions on. The lessons from the Taliban’s unchecked rise to power is that concessions to radical groups without the enforcement mechanisms in place only breeds more instability.

If the Taliban leadership cannot hold its own ranks together, how can it be expected to behave responsibly when confronting the West on its commitments?

Also, the Taliban’s inability to curb their own factions from threatening to go to war indicates that they are not who they say they are in terms of being a legitimate government. If the Taliban leadership cannot hold its own ranks together, how can it be expected to behave responsibly when confronting the West on its commitments? Such inflammatory rhetoric has certainly undermined any hope that the Taliban might be a responsible governing entity. Extremist elements within the group are sufficiently influential and that is why they have openly spoken of their ambitions.

The Taliban leadership is reportedly preoccupied with military fantasies instead of economic recovery, governance or providing adequate response to Afghanistan’s humanitarian crisis. Despite aid, Afghanistan is one of the world’s poorest countries. Therefore, rebuilding the nation must be on the top of the list of any responsible government. It should ensure economic growth and regional cooperation. But the Taliban have focused so much on potential military conquests that their priorities appear far from true governance and reform.

Of course, such statements have not been made merely for the sake of rhetoric. Such expansionist ambitions could lead Tajikistan and other Central Asian countries to the take preemptive security measures. They could be expanding military alliances, enhancing border security, and drawing on help from abroad to resist Taliban attack. Increasingly, external powers such as Russia and China may intervene because of the Taliban’s provocations, which have a bearing on stability in Central Asia.

To prevent the Taliban from being emboldened to act on their threats, diplomatic measures, economic sanctions and regional security cooperation must be used

Therefore, such reckless provocations must be defended against by international actors. They should pressure the Taliban into implementing their promise of not intervening and discouraging any aggressive posturing. To prevent the Taliban from being emboldened to act on their threats, diplomatic measures, economic sanctions and regional security cooperation must be used. Additionally, Afghanistan’s neighbors must agree on a powerful security framework that prevents any possible inter-state aggression if necessary.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.