The ancient Chinese strategist Sun Tzu mentioned in his treatise on a war that “In the midst of chaos, lies opportunity.” The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime marks the end of half a century of Al-Assad’s family rule and signals the tentative conclusion of Syria’s devastating civil war. From 2011 to 2023, the conflict-ravaged the nation’s economy and displaced over 14 million people—7.2 million internally and millions more scattered across Türkiye, Lebanon, and Jordan.
The fall of the Assad regime opens opportunities for China’s involvement in Syria’s reconstruction and regional stability efforts.
The transitional government, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), faces an uphill battle to rebuild a shattered country. Desperate for support, Syria’s plight opens doors for global players like China, offering an opportunity to wield both diplomatic and financial influence in shaping its future. Meanwhile, heavy U.S. and EU sanctions rooted in fears of terrorism, war crimes, and human rights abuses keep Syria at a geopolitical crossroads.
The nation’s strategic significance makes it a stage for power struggles. China’s involvement could reshape the regional balance, presenting itself as a peaceful global player while addressing Uyghur foreign fighters in Syria and influencing Syria’s uncertain path to recovery.
The 13-year-long civil war severely undermined Syria’s economy and infrastructure, leaving it in a state of near collapse. Historically reliant on agriculture and fossil fuel sectors for wealth generation, the Syrian economy faced a significant downturn. Control of the country’s oil-rich regions has shifted to Syrian Kurds, backed by the US military, further weakening state authority. Between 2011 and 2023, Syria’s gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 85%, declining to $9 billion, with an additional contraction of 1.5% anticipated this year.
Extreme poverty has affected one in four Syrians since 2022, as reported by the World Bank. The Assad regime’s diminished control over oil resources has precipitated a sharp drop in production, from 383,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 90,000 bpd in 2022. Consequently, once the largest oil exporter in the Eastern Mediterranean, Syria now depends on Iranian imports to meet its energy demands.
The contraction of Syria’s economy extended deeply into the agriculture sector, where cultivated land was reduced to just 25% of its pre-war levels. Exports plummeted by 92% to under $1 billion, while imports dropped 81% to $3.2 billion, underscoring the scale of economic isolation. According to the World Bank, farmers faced growing barriers to essential resources such as seeds, fertilizers, fuel, and machinery parts, leading to a sharp decline in agricultural productivity.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative could connect Syria to Mediterranean trade, aiding economic recovery and boosting regional influence.
The extensive destruction across Syria since March 2011 has left its infrastructure in shambles, with repair costs reaching staggering levels. By early 2019, estimates placed the required reconstruction funds between $250 billion and $400 billion, which vastly overshadows Syria’s 2018 national budget of just $8.9 billion. Notably, only $50 million of this budget was allocated for reconstruction, highlighting the severe mismatch between available resources and the scale of the challenge. This stark disparity underscores the impossibility of the current Syrian administration independently shouldering the monumental cost of rebuilding, making foreign assistance not just beneficial but essential for any meaningful recovery.
The end of Assad’s regime in Syria marked the end of the China-Syria strategic partnership, which was established in September 2023. There is an assumption that now China has lost its edge in Syria, which couldn’t be further from reality. Syria joined the BRI project in 2022 as it needed infrastructure from more than a decade of fighting. However, the strategic partnership is only a recent development in a long relationship with each other. China can play a significant role in the reconstruction and diplomatic help Syria needs in the long run amid sanctions imposed by the U.S. These sanctions, although now being relieved slowly, will likely remain on Syria to keep a check on the interim administration.
HTS is currently seeking diplomatic recognition and foreign investment to finance its rebuilding efforts. China is well-positioned to engage in this context, given its policy of non-intervention and limited diplomatic baggage in the Syrian conflict. While China quietly supported the Assad government by vetoing resolutions in the United Nations Security Council, it refrained from direct military involvement in the Syrian civil war. This neutral stance provides Beijing with significant flexibility to engage with a new setup in Syria while preserving the strategic partnerships it cultivated under Assad’s tenure.
Following the fall of the Assad regime, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning emphasized the importance of a Syrian-led resolution to the country’s future. She stated, “The Syrian people should decide the future of Syria. We hope relevant parties will find a political settlement to restore stability and order in Syria for the long-term and fundamental interest of the Syrian people.” Addressing questions about China’s ties to the Assad regime, Mao Ning further clarified, “China’s friendly relations with Syria are for all Syrian people. We hope stability will return as soon as possible.”
China’s approach, characterized by measured diplomacy and strategic neutrality, positions it as a potential key player in Syria’s post-conflict reconstruction and political realignment. Although the U.S. has removed a $10 million bounty from HTS leaders’ heads, however, HTS is still on the terrorist list of the U.S. The presence of a significant chunk of Uighur fighters in Syria is also a point of concern for China.
Uyghur fighters in Syria present both security challenges and opportunities for China’s counterterrorism efforts.
Syria has been home to potentially thousands of Uyghur fighters associated with the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP). With the conclusion of the Syrian civil war, the possibility of a spillover of these fighters into China presents a significant concern. Just as domestic actions in China can have international repercussions like Uyghur migrating to Syria, events in the Middle East, such as this, can also lead to domestic security implications for China. This dynamic underscores the interconnected nature of global and regional conflicts and their potential to influence internal stability.
Highlighting the strategic role of Uighur fighters, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has reportedly integrated a few Uighur militants into its administrative framework. According to an HTS source, this move was described as “a small token of recognition for their sacrifices.” Such recognition not only underscores the contributions of Uighur fighters but also signals their growing influence within the broader insurgency. By taking a proactive approach, China could address security concerns that intersect with its broader counterterrorism efforts and regional stability interests.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative could play a crucial role in revitalizing China-Syria relations, as China already has a ‘Memorandum of Understanding on Aligning the Belt and Road Initiative and the Middle Corridor Initiative’ with Türkiye, which continues to support the BRI. Extending the economic corridor through Syria could grant China access to the strategic ports of Tartous and Latakia, opening pathways to the Southern Mediterranean.
This strategic expansion would strengthen China’s influence in the region, enabling it to diversify its trade routes and secure vital supply chains to South Europe and North Western Africa. Additionally, it would provide Syria with significant investments, boosting its economy and accelerating the reconstruction of its war-torn infrastructure.
The removal of Assad from power could have significantly complicated matters for China. However, it is pertinent for China to reengage with the current administration in Syria. China, in comparison to America and Europeans, is in a much better position to spearhead the rehabilitation and reconstruction process of Syria.
China’s diplomatic neutrality positions it uniquely to engage with Syria’s interim government, unlike Western powers mired in sanctions and conflict legacies.
China has thus far remained insulated from taking any sides in the conflict. At the same time, the rest of the regional stakeholders have supported and armed different factions in the Syrian civil war. The diplomatic normalization between Saudi Arabia and Iran is a testament to China’s role as a fair mediator in the Middle East.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of Stratheia.
