WASHINGTON – As Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are getting ready for their first live debate before the US presidential election, Pew says the two rivals enjoy equal support at 49% among registered voters.
But another pollster Nate Silver last week had predicted an electoral college victory for Trump, meaning that he would be US president for second time.
The majority of popular votes does not count in the US presidential election, as the winner is decided on the basic of an electoral college, comprising presidential electors from all the 50 states.
It shouldn’t be a surprise as no Republican presidential candidate has won popular vote since 2004 when George W Bush retained the office for a second term. He bagged 50.73% votes against John Kerry who later served as US State Secretary under Barack Obama.
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It is widely predicted that the no Republican candidate would now ever get elected as a US president because of the demographic changes. The party mainly attracts White voters whose share in population is shrinking constantly.
The debate could make a huge difference as the performance of Harris and Trump may influence the undecided and infrequent voters amid the extreme polarization in the US.
It also means the number of swing voters is on a constant decline as most of the people have already taken a clear position. Previously, it wasn’t the case when a large a section of US society used to switch their affiliations after one of two election cycles. The Reagan Democrats, who made Republican Ronald Reagan the US president in 1980 by siding with him in the Rust Belt, are a great example.
The same group again influenced the results in 1984 and 1988.
Meanwhile, the allegations of Russian interference are in play yet again, as the issue has become a routine matter every time a Western democracy goes to polls.
ABORTION AND ECONOMY
According to Pew, “Trump’s key advantage is on the economy, which voters regard as the most important issue this year. A 55% majority of voters say they are very or somewhat confident in Trump to make good decisions about economic policy, compared with 45% who say that about Harris.”
“Harris’ lead over Trump on abortion is a near mirror image of Trump’s on the economy: 55% of voters have at least some confidence in Harris, while 44% express confidence in Trump.”
POLITICS OF ELECTORAL COLLEGE
The number of each state is decided on the basis of seats in the House of Representatives plus the number of senators. So, it is basically the House of Representatives members plus two, given that each state has equal representation in the US Senate just like any other House of the Parliament.
On the other hand, the election for House of Representatives, held after every two years resulting in midterm-elections for every president, is constituency-based. The number of seats for each US state is allocated on the basis of population, with the total fixed at 435.
It means a US state has at least three members of the Congress – two senators and one in House of Representatives – no matter that state [federating unit] is.
However, this electoral college system treats the large states like California and New York unfairly, as the election is decided by the electors notwithstanding the fact one of the candidates may win there with a wide margin. Thus, it hurts the Democrats who are in majority in developed urban centers both along the east and west coasts.
Thus, the Republicans are the beneficiaries of the electoral college, as the smaller states with a majority of White population play a key role in results. In fact, the Republicans are in majority in most of the US states.
WHO WILL PROPEL EITHER OF THE CANDIDATES?
It makes the battleground states most important factor in any US election. These are the which could potentially be won by either candidate.
The seven battleground states in 2024 are: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. It is the reason why both Kamala and Trump are focusing on them.
In connection, Trump is now is trying to win over the infrequent voters that the campaign sees as key to victory in the battleground state.
This target audience is called “low propensity” voters – the people who don’t show up every voting cycle and may even skip the presidential ballot every four years.
Why? Because the support base for the Republicans isn’t growing as explained above amid the tilt towards far right and the resultant focus on the White population.
A New York Times/Siena College survey underscored the opportunity for the Trump campaign with less reliable voters.
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