When South Sudan broke away in 2011, the world thought a page had turned. Maybe a final chapter in a book that never seemed to end. But Sudan did not start healing. It simply began bleeding in new places. Lines were redrawn, not to solve the problem, but to deepen it. And today, if you look closely, Sudan is not just a state unraveling from within. It is a chessboard. And every major and minor player has a piece moving across it.

It is a war of economies, of supply lines, of loyalty bought in gold and armored vehicles. A war where the real game is being played by actors outside Sudan’s borders

The war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces is not a civil war in the usual sense. It is a war of economies, of supply lines, of loyalty bought in gold and armored vehicles. A war where the real game is being played by actors outside Sudan’s borders. To call it a power struggle is too polite. It is a scramble, quiet and violent. A second Berlin Conference—but this time, fought through proxy groups and cargo planes.

Egypt backs the SAF. But let’s be honest, this is not about Sudanese sovereignty. Cairo wants leverage over the Nile. It always has. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is already threatening Egypt’s control over the river (Reuters). A Sudan aligned with Ethiopia? That’s a nightmare scenario. So instability becomes useful. A shaky Sudan means no surprises. Just manageable chaos. This logic goes back to British colonialism, when London ran Sudan as a buffer zone—not to govern it, but to keep it weak enough to control the Nile from Cairo.

Darfur is not just a humanitarian disaster zone—it is a mine

On the other side, the RSF plays its cards well. From mercenaries in Yemen to partners in gold exports, the UAE has built a relationship with them that runs on efficiency and mutual gain (The Guardian). Abu Dhabi sends weapons through Chad, keeps the spotlight dim, and in return it eyes Sudan’s gold. Darfur is not just a humanitarian disaster zone—it is a mine. And minerals, unlike people, don’t ask for rights.

Saudi Arabia, ever the middle player, leans on SAF but tries not to say it too loud. The rivalry with UAE is real, and Sudan is just another space where this shows. Meanwhile, Russia has been flirting with both sides. The Wagner Group’s reported involvement isn’t random (CNN). They don’t show up without a map of resources in hand. A port on the Red Sea, gold mines, a government desperate for security contracts—that’s the kind of environment Moscow finds inviting. And they never come all at once. Just a little at a time. First the arms. Then the advisors. Then the concessions.

And the United States. Washington pretends to keep its distance. No appetite for nation building. No marines. No flags. But that doesn’t mean absence. The game is played quietly. The Red Sea is too strategic to ignore. Houthi attacks in Bab el-Mandeb are already testing maritime patience (Al Jazeera). The last thing the U.S. wants is Russian radar and Iranian influence on Sudanese shores. So the response is layered—naval intelligence, sanctions here and there, logistical support to regional allies. Saudi Arabia and UAE play the face. Egypt does the dirty work. America shrugs. Plausible deniability has always been part of its foreign policy toolkit.

This is how Trump would play it. And maybe how any realist White House would. No boots. Just leverage. Use the client states, let them take the heat. Sudan is a means, not an end.

This is how Trump would play it. And maybe how any realist White House would. No boots. Just leverage. Use the client states, let them take the heat. Sudan is a means, not an end. The focus stays on visible wins over slow détente. Iran is a slow game. China is a long game. But Sudan? That’s a space where outcomes can shift with just a few airstrips and mining contracts.

What’s striking is how fluid these alliances are. Today, RSF leans on UAE. Tomorrow, they could court Beijing. The SAF flirts with Iran and Turkey. Wagner offers services. None of these groups are loyal to ideology. They’re loyal to whoever helps them survive the week. In this way, Sudan is a mirror of modern geopolitics. No permanent friends. Just evolving terms.

It’s not all shadow games. Egypt has reportedly carried out airstrikes against RSF positions. Iran has delivered drones. Turkey is offering military assistance. And all of this happens while Sudanese civilians are caught in the middle, unseen and unheard (BBC). The country becomes less of a state and more of a corridor. A space to move weapons, extract wealth, and test strategies. The fact that there are still functioning cities is a miracle. But miracles do not last long under siege.

Where is China in this? Not loud, but watching. Their stake is commercial. The Red Sea matters because oil tankers matter

Where is China in this? Not loud, but watching. Their stake is commercial. The Red Sea matters because oil tankers matter. And while Beijing avoids messy interventions, it is not above writing checks when the dust settles. If Port Sudan becomes unstable, or if BRI infrastructure is threatened, China will act. Not with troops, but with quiet power. Reconstruction loans. Port management deals. Security partnerships wrapped in development packages.

What’s tragic is how familiar all of this feels. A country being taken apart while the world claims to want to fix it.

The truth is that Sudan’s future won’t be written by Sudan alone. It will be decided in boardrooms in Abu Dhabi, in security offices in Cairo, in strategy rooms in Washington, in war councils in Moscow. And maybe one day, on a quiet desk in Beijing. What’s tragic is how familiar all of this feels. A country being taken apart while the world claims to want to fix it.

Sudan is not collapsing by accident. It is being managed—piece by piece, moment by moment, with eyes wide open.

So here we are. A fragile region with vital corridors. Gold under the ground. Ports on the water. Proxy networks that are both brittle and resilient. Loyalties that change faster than the headlines. Sudan is not collapsing by accident. It is being managed—piece by piece, moment by moment, with eyes wide open.

What happens next depends on who sees the next move first. The game is not over. It’s just shifting into a new phase. And those who wait for stability may be waiting for something no one is seriously working toward.

Sudan bleeds. The players move. And the game goes on.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.