With a vast and strategic location in northeastern Africa, Sudan has arrived at a historic crossroad. Long a country stricken by internal conflicts, political instability and economic difficulties, the country is at a crossroads that will not only determine its own course but where the whole of Africa and beyond will be headed. With rich natural resources, a strategic location along the Red Sea, and ties to surrounding and international global powers, Sudan has come to be a geopolitical powder keg with consequences that are far reaching.

The conflict has deepened the economic downturn, causing inflation to go into hyperinflation levels, food becoming scarce, and basic services collapsing

Sudan is politically unstable and that is at the heart of its troubles. The country has been plagued with multiple coups, authoritarian regimes and years of civil war since gaining independence from Britain and Egypt in 1956. However, after longtime dictator Omar al Bashir was ousted in 2019, there had briefly been hope for a democratic transition following the most recent power struggle. The fragility of the transitional government was evident in October when the military, led by General Abdel Fattah al Burhan, staged a coup, scuppering Sudan’s road to civilian government.

The country has been mired in a bitter infighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) commanded by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, popularly referred to as Hemedti, since then. Sudan’s violent conflict, however, has not only brought the country to a state of chaos, but has dragged in regional and international powers to perpetuate a crisis that is of global concern.

Sudan is on very tenuous economic straits. In addition, following South Sudan’s secession from Sudan in 2011, three quarters of Sudan’s oil production went with it leaving the country with a loss of oil revenues. Further devastated by sanctions, mismanagement, corruption, and repeated civil war, Sudan became highly reliant on foreign aid and remittances. The conflict has deepened the economic downturn, causing inflation to go into hyperinflation levels, food becoming scarce, and basic services collapsing.

It has also spilled over into other regional countries causing disruption of their trade routes and infrastructure and increasing the amount of regional instability. Compound this with the fact that Sudan sits directly at the heart of multiple major geopolitical interests, including those of the United States, China, Russia, and Gulf states all competing for control over the country.

Given that it borders Red Sea, the country forms an important maritime corridor for the world’s trade that is crucial for major world economies seeking to secure supply chains and trade routes

Sudan is one country that cannot be underestimated when it comes to geopolitical significance. Given that it borders Red Sea, the country forms an important maritime corridor for the world’s trade that is crucial for major world economies seeking to secure supply chains and trade routes. Port Sudan is an important hub for trade and a military location in Sudan that parallels the interests of the global powers attempting to create or grow a power base in the region.

For example, Russia has long desired to build a naval base on Sudan’s Red Sea coast, an enterprise that would drastically change the power balance in the region yet would garner reactions from Western countries. Gulf states such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia meanwhile have invested heavily in Sudan, becoming likely key controlling investors of agricultural lands with the intent of securing their own food supply chains in a time of worldwide uncertainty.

And, of course, external actors have also exploited Sudan’s internal divisions to complicate the conflict. For instance, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Chad have taken very different stances on the ongoing crisis, and in many cases their views have been quite a function of their own national security concerns. For instance, Egypt has backed the Sudanese military because it strategically wishes to keep the southern border of the country stable and retain its preeminent status over Nile River waters.

However, Ethiopia and Sudan have had a tense relationship because of border disputes and their contest for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), feeding on the level of hostilities between them. Also, Sahelian countries, including Chad, are hugely worried about spillover effects of the Sudanese conflict in terms of both refugees and armed militia movement across their territories.

The crisis is one that has been particularly difficult to contain for international organizations and global powers. However, the African Union (AU), the United Nations, as well as regional groupings such as the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) have tried to mediate peace talks, but all with little or no success. But sanctions imposed by Western nations, including the United States and European Union, on the military leaders and paramilitary groups slaughtering the population have not curbed the violence.

Meanwhile, Russia and China have opted to take a more pragmatic approach and engaging in meddling with Sudanese factions to achieve their own strategic and economic interests. Aside from the involvement of foreign mercenaries, arms suppliers and clandestine financial networks, making the conflict pretty much impossible to resolve.

This conflict has the potential to unravel other parts of the Horn of Africa and Sahel, where insurgencies jostle for space with economic hardship and climate problems

Conditions in Sudan are dire. The fighting has displaced millions, and ordinary civilians remain at the centre of the violence. The international community has been horrified by reports of mass killings, sexual violence, ethnic targeting and war crimes. The humanitarian crisis has been so dire that aid organizations have been overwhelmed, and relief efforts has been thwarted by insecurity and bureaucratic red tape as well as lack of funding.

While many of the refugees have inevitably ended up in nearby countries experiencing their own internal conflicts such as Chad and South Sudan, these two nations are themselves under immense pressure to accommodate their own refugees. The suffering in Sudan is vast, but bringing an end to it through political resolution has been very difficult.

Sudan’s crisis is a plight for the international community, reminding us of the interconnectedness of modern conflicts. Instability of the country concerns global security, trade, migration, humanitarian policy. This conflict has the potential to unravel other parts of the Horn of Africa and Sahel, where insurgencies jostle for space with economic hardship and climate problems.

For that reason, the international community must make every effort possible to avoid Sudan taking a destructive spiral into chaos. Over the next few months, Sudanese leaders, regional actors and the wider international community will have choices to make, choices which could ensure that Sudan stays a geopolitical powder keg or moves in the direction toward peace and stability.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of Streathia.