As new alliances reshape the global order, America stands at a crucial crossroads: lead or retreat. Multiple conflicts from Russia’s war in Ukraine to the deepening partnerships between China, Iran, and Russia are rapidly transforming the international landscape. Against this backdrop, the return of Donald Trump as the 47th president introduces a nationalist, “America First” doctrine that challenges the traditional U.S. role. This approach, criticizing institutions and alliances, raises urgent concerns: Could America’s retreat create a power vacuum for its rivals? Will Trump’s vision of making America “great again” lead the U.S. into isolation? Will China exploit the power vacuum created by the U.S. withdrawal? Can new alliances help Russia regain its position in the world order?
“China is not creating the vacuum, the U.S. is leaving it, and Beijing is just jumping in.” – Elizabeth Economy
According to a Brookings Institution analysis, a second Trump presidency could accelerate the United States’ disengagement from global institutions and its old alliances. The United States’ hold on the world order is shrinking with the emergence of new partnerships. By imposing tariffs, disregarding alliances, and blaming non-state actors, the United States is creating space for China, Russia, and Iran to increase their influence in the region and the world. As Elizabeth Economy, a leading expert on Chinese politics and foreign policy, states, “China is not creating the vacuum, the U.S. is leaving it, and Beijing is just jumping in.” The United States runs the risk of losing its strategic clout to rivals who are actively changing the world.
The strategic partnership between Iran and China is a possible threat to Washington. The Foreign Minister of Iran, Abbas Araghchi, called 2025 a golden year for the Iran-China partnership. China is now the largest energy consumer of Iran, importing 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports. According to a U.S. Treasury Press Release, China has supplied Iran with precursor chemicals essential for ballistic missile propellant production, and China also publicly supports Iran’s nuclear diplomacy.
Beyond energy, China is now institutionalizing its power through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), where 40% of the world population belongs now In June 2025, Iran became the 9th full member and Saudi Arabia joined as a dialogue partner— a stark contrast to Trump’s 2018 withdrawal from the JCPOA (joint comprehensive plan of action).
Furthermore, the Beijing Meeting between China, Russia, and Iran was successfully held on March 14, 2025. China, Russia, and Iran engaged in in-depth discussions on the latest state of play with regard to nuclear issues and sanctions lifting. These efforts could reduce the influence of the U.S. in areas like the Middle East and South Asia and free space for countries like Iran and Saudi Arabia.
“This long-term pact with Russia boosts Iran’s position in global energy politics.” – Ali Vaez
Second, in early 2025, President Putin and Iran’s President Pezeshkian signed a 20-year strategic pact in Moscow, expanding military and energy cooperation, which takes the relationship between the two countries to a higher level. Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director, said, “This long-term pact with Russia boosts Iran’s position in global energy politics and underscores a deeper military and political realignment in the region.
The Pentagon’s 2025 Annual Threat Assessment notes Iran now possesses 3,000 ballistic missiles—30% more than pre-2021, with Chinese-supplied guidance systems. This directly threatens U.S. bases in Qatar and Bahrain. The Trump Administration needs to pay attention to it, this will enhance the standing of Iran in the region and reduce the power of the United States. The strategic treaty also has a significant impact on the world’s energy market, as Iran is one of the world’s largest oil producers.
Third, the bilateral, cooperative relationship that has developed between Russia and China, particularly in their joint endeavors against U.S. hegemony, such as their exercise routines and the Belt and Road Initiative with the Eurasian Economic Union, makes Washington apprehensive. Their shift toward using national currencies (the ruble and yuan), which now account for 35% of bilateral trade, is eroding the dollar’s dominance in Eurasia.
In April 2025, Russia’s Mir and China’s UnionPay replaced Visa/Mastercard in 75% of Central Asian transactions. Meanwhile, Huawei’s 6G tests in Iran signal a coming split in global tech standards. The 18th round of strategic discussions between Russia and China was designed based on strategic coordination, mutual support, and cooperation relative to multilateral frameworks.
“The post-American world is not one where the U.S. disappears, but one where it no longer shapes every major outcome.” – Richard Haass
BRICS, which now represents 46% of the world population, in January 2024, added Egypt, Iran, and Saudi Arabi, backed by Russia and China against U.S. hegemony. This also opens doors for Russia to use Indian & UAE middlemen to reroute oil to Europe via shadow fleets. Russia has significantly increased its naval capabilities, strengthening its Pacific Fleet and deepening military cooperation with China. BRICS is becoming a rival economic bloc for the U.S. and NATO, while White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that Washington doesn’t see BRICS as a geopolitical rival.
On top of that, the signing of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty 2024, by Putin and Kim in Pyongyang, marked a significant era of bilateral relations. In which Kim and Putin challenged U.S. dominance in the region and spoke out against perceived Western aggression.
The increasing collaboration between Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran is creating a tense environment, both in the Indo-Pacific and globally. These partnerships are raising alarms for Washington. Trump’s “America First” doctrine may appeal to nationalist sentiments, but it risks isolating the country at a moment when global engagement is critical. China, Russia, and Iran are not only challenging U.S. interests, but they are also building parallel structures of power.
Richard Haass, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), argues, “The post-American world is not one where the U.S. disappears, but one where it no longer shapes every major outcome.” This warning reflects a growing reality: as the U.S. retreats from global engagement, rivals are filling the void.
BRICS now represents 46% of the world population, creating a rival bloc to NATO, with Iran, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia joining in 2024.
A fundamental change in the balance of power in the world is indicated by the emergence of middle powers like Iran, Turkey, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam in addition to the China-Russia-North Korea axis. As the United States withdraws from its position as the only hegemon in the world, these middle powers are stepping in to fill the void through military collaborations, economic alliances, and strategic non-alignment rather than direct war.
Trump needs to decide whether he wants to lead the world or remain on the sidelines if the United States continues down the path of isolation as rivals like China, Russia, and Iran form stronger pacts and challenge the U.S.-led system. Washington must shift its short-term policies towards long-term strategies. The world is becoming a mosaic of networks led by middle powers rather than dividing into two camps (China and the United States). Washington needs smart engagement, not isolation. Those who adapt, mediate, and diversify will be the ones in the future, not those who hold power.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.
