Tensions have mounted between the two nuclear armed neighbors, Pakistan and India, yet again. On May 7th’ 2025, India launched a major offensive against Pakistan, targeting ‘terrorist infrastructure’, in milieu of a tourist massacre, in Indian occupied Kashmir. India claimed that terrorists crossed the Line of Control and conducted this heinous act.
The May’ 7th ‘Operation Sindoor’ was launched to eliminate hideouts of these terrorists as a revenge
The May’ 7th ‘Operation Sindoor’ was launched to eliminate hideouts of these terrorists as a revenge. Following which, Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif vowed to respond to these strikes and a series of events were unwrapped, with Pakistan claiming to have downed five Indian Air Force planes, the mighty French made Rafale and India sending drones inside Pakistan, which were yet again downed by the Air Defence of Pakistan. However, this warmongering and drum rolling illustrates the truism of ‘history does not repeat itself, it rhymes’! More importantly, there is a need to address the elephant in the room; is there a possibility of a nuclear war between these two traditional rivals? Let’s look at the odds:
International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICANW), globally in the year 2023, countries spent an estimated $91.4bn on nuclear weapons, with India spending $2.7bn and Pakistan $1bn
First, strategy suggests that ‘Ends justify means’ and as Clausewitz argues ‘war is a continuation of policy in other ways’, let’s look at the means and policies of both India and Pakistan to analyze the ends they want to achieve. In terms of MEANS, according to the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICANW), globally in the year 2023, countries spent an estimated $91.4bn on nuclear weapons, with India spending $2.7bn and Pakistan $1bn. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ (CSIS) Missile Defence Project, India’s nuclear deterrents are mainly aimed at rivals Pakistan and China. India has developed both longer range missiles and mobile land-based missiles. In union with Russia, it is in the developing stages for ship and submarine missiles. The CSIS also states that Pakistan’s arsenal consists primarily of mobile short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, which have enough of a range to target India.
The majority of India’s imports come from Russia, although it has been shifting its arms sourcing to France, Israel and the United States
China’s significant technical assistance on its nuclear and missile programmes has helped Pakistan in recent years. According to SIPRI, the cross-border tensions between the two nations fuel arms imports by both countries. India was the second-largest arms importer from 2020-2024, after Ukraine, bearing an 8.3 percent share of global imports. The majority of India’s imports come from Russia, although it has been shifting its arms sourcing to France, Israel and the United States.
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s arms and weapons imports increased by 61 percent between 2015–19 and 2020–24 as it started to receive deliveries, including combat aircraft and warships. On a global scale, Pakistan is the fifth-largest arms importer with 4.6 percent imports in 2020–24.According to Global Firepower’s 2025 military strength rankings, India is the fourth-strongest military power in the world, and Pakistan is ranked as the 12th strongest. India is the fifth-largest spender in the world on military. In 2024, it spent $86bn on its military, or 2.3 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP), according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), a leading defence and armaments think tank.
In comparison, Pakistan spent $10.2bn, or 2.7 percent of its GDP, on the military in 2024. India’s total military strength is 5,137,550 personnel, which is almost three times larger than Pakistan’s 1,704,000. Neither country has mandatory conscription. India possesses 2,229 military aircraft, compared with Pakistan’s 1,399. India has 3,151 combat tanks, compared with Pakistan’s 1,839. Pakistan’s navy covers its 1,046 kilometre-long (650-mile) southern coastal borders in the Arabian Sea and possesses 121 naval assets, while India’s mainland coast covers nearly 6,100km (3,800 miles) with 293 naval assets.
If two States A and B are nuclear armed states, the threat of going nuclear in retaliation from State B deters State A from engaging in any all-out nuclear conflict
As far as POLICY is concerned, let’s revisit a concept of nuclear strategy, the stability-instability paradox! It suggests that while the nuclear deterrence may prevent a large scale war, it in fact paradoxically raises the bar of lower-level conflicts and crisis. In other words, if two States A and B are nuclear armed states, the threat of going nuclear in retaliation from State B deters State A from engaging in any all-out nuclear conflict. This all happens at the strategic level of war, where the possibility for exchange of nuclear bombs is quite high. However, at the tactical level of war, this strategic stability creates an environment where both State A and B can engage in other forms of conflict like insurgencies, proxy wars and other sub-conventional conflict.
This happens because both the states believe that such conflicts will not raise the bar of war to nuclear exchange and actions may be taken without such a response. Consequently, this paradox highlights the potential of a nuclear deterrence having unintended consequences, which creates instability at the lower levels of conflict and prevents it at the strategic level.
However, a chilling 2019 study of Routledge had argued about a large scale nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan in the year 2025. It was assumed in the study as such that once both the countries would attain 250 nuclear weapons the bone of contention, Kashmir, will bring both the States to engage in a nuclear war. The study predicts the triggering point to be a terrorist attack on Indian Parliament similar to one conducted in Dec 2001. As a result skirmishes will break out and the Indian Army will decide to cross the border into Pakistan with tanks and also through the Line of Control in Kashmir. Pakistan Army in panic will have no other option but to use nuclear weapons, starting from 10 kilo tons tactical nuclear weapons and in the next few days using its entire arsenal. Meanwhile, the Indians will retaliate by denoting 20 strategic weapons as airbursts, out of which two will be over the garrison in Bahawalpur and other 18 over airfields and nuclear weapons depots. Unlike Pakistan’s tactical weapons, which were used in remote areas, these weapons start immense fires, with massive smoke emissions that rise into the upper atmosphere, as happened in Hiroshima after it was bombed by the United States in 1945, and as happened in San Francisco in 1906 as the result of fire following an earthquake.
Drones or Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV’s) are mostly used for reconnaissance, aerial surveillance, missile defence and hitting targets
Coming back to the question of policy, can this study of 2019 become an actual reality in the year 2025? Given the idea of Stability-Instability paradox and how this study ignores intervening factors of tactical technological warfare, makes the possibility of a nuclear war a far reality, even when Pakistan does not follow a credible No First Use (NFU) policy and India has a declared one. In defence of this argument, we witnessed how India’s made in Israel drones entered Pakistan’s territory and how they were shot down by Pakistan’s air defence system.
Drones or Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV’s) are mostly used for reconnaissance, aerial surveillance, missile defence and hitting targets. They come in many shapes and sizes and vary in degree of sophistication. They are cost effective and come in all strategic, operational and tactical forms. India did spend a lot of finances and efforts in acquiring drone technology and in the year 2019, US approved sale of armed drones to India. It also worked on indigenous drones India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) conducted the maiden flight of an unmanned ‘autonomous flying wing technology demonstrator’ in June 2022.
These drones, along with indigenous systems like the Shahpar and Buraq, have increased Pakistan’s capability as compared to India
On the other hand, recognizing the strategic and tactical value of drones, Pakistan has also made significant progress in developing and acquiring them. In Pakistan’s drone fleet there are platforms like Bayraktar TB2 and Akinci from Turkey, as well as the Wing Loong II and CH-4 from China. These drones, along with indigenous systems like the Shahpar and Buraq, have increased Pakistan’s capability as compared to India.
Nonetheless, it may argued that, today the nature of warfare has evolved into asymmetric dynamics facilitated by cutting edge technological development. Given this hypothesis, the Stabiliy-Instability paradox still persists between India and Pakistan and if sanity prevails it should remain for times to come, otherwise this generational enmity will cause an unprecedented damage to both the States and region at large.
Clausewitz suggests that war is inevitable but Sun Tzu advices to defeat the enemy before entering the battlefield through subduing its morale. Its time for revisiting the stability-instability paradox with inclusion of technological revolution at the tactical level, which will further help in maintaining stability between two nuclear armed states like Pakistan and India.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.
