The hotly disputed region of the world, Kashmir, has once more been in the limelight of the global media since April 22, and again because of the worst news of yet another terrorist attack, but this time the target was unarmed tourists. However, the alarming situation unfurled in the immediate post-attack scenario, when the Bollywood-styled mainstream media of India twisted and turned the tragic news story into the dirty blame game on Pakistan without any substantial proof and prior to any thorough investigation.

India and Pakistan have been archrivals since the partition of the colonial-ruled subcontinent in 1947

India and Pakistan have been archrivals since the partition of the colonial-ruled subcontinent in 1947.  Both the states since then have been in the constant struggle for power over the disputed territories and regions, but above all, the strategically vital mountainous valley of Kashmir has been the longest-standing territorial dispute, which is one of the long-standing issues between the South Asian rivals.

Pakistan and India have fought three wars over this piece of land at different phases in their historical evolution, i.e., in 1948, 1965, and 1999. The former two military standoffs happened when both states did not have nuclear weapon capability, while the third military skirmish took place in the post-nuclearized scenario.

The nuclearization of South Asia began in 1974, when India stole the fissile materials from the Canadian nuclear reactor given to India

The nuclearization of South Asia began in 1974, when India stole the fissile materials from the Canadian nuclear reactor given to India. It built the bomb and termed it the peaceful nuclear weapon. How could it be peaceful when both the arch-rivals are on hostile terms and possess the huge conventional military asymmetry? Pakistan had to follow suit after India tested its nuclear weapon capability first in 1974 and later in May 1998.

The 2001-02 Indian parliament attack, 2008 Taj Hotel incident, 2016 so-called Indian surgical strike in the Kashmir valley of Pakistan, and the 2019 Pulwama-Balakot crisis are all major events 

However, the post-nuclearized subcontinent is perceived to be one of the dangerous flashpoints of nuclear escalation, looking at their respective eventful history. The 2001-02 Indian parliament attack, 2008 Taj Hotel incident, 2016 so-called Indian surgical strike in the Kashmir valley of Pakistan, and the 2019 Pulwama-Balakot crisis are all major events that took place in the twenty-first century when both states possessed nuclear weapons. At each moment, the threshold had not been crossed and rationality had prevailed eventually, either by international involvement or by bilateral Track Two diplomatic means in the absence of formal ties.

The main highlight this time was India’s unilateral decision to suspend the historic Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)

However, this time, after the Pahalgam incident, the Indian government acted abnormally and irrationally by severing already limited diplomatic ties with Pakistan under the pretext that this particular incident was carried out from across the border. The main highlight this time was India’s unilateral decision to suspend the historic Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed between India and Pakistan in 1960 through the World Bank as a third party for the regulation and distribution of water to six different rivers—divided into two sets of three rivers for each party. Additionally, the closure of international border check-posts between the two states and the suspension of visas for Pakistani nationals under SAARC are likely to further exacerbate the uncertainty amid the ongoing security crisis.

The Indian aggressive policy is completely irresponsible and illogical, given the hostile regional dynamics of South Asia. The similar scenario has been observed previously back in 2019, in the aftermath of the suicide attack on the Indian security force convoy in the Pulwama district of the Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu &Kashmir (IIOJ&K), when India violated the air sovereignty of Pakistan and dropped the payload in the Balakot region of Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK). The situation escalated to a limited dogfight between India and Pakistan and resulted in the capture of the Indian Air Force’s serving officer, Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman.

Pakistan captured serving Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) officer, Commander Kulbhushan Yadav, from the troubled province of Balochistan

However, the international mediation by the United States and China proved to be beneficial in the de-escalation of the tense situation. Similarly, the leadership of India is once again misusing the Pahalgam tragic incident to operationalize their malign strategy against Pakistan, despite knowing the repercussions. Pakistan has always acted responsibly in such scenarios. Pakistan used the international forums in the absence of bilateral political and diplomatic ties. Like in 2016, when Pakistan captured serving Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) officer, Commander Kulbhushan Yadav, from the troubled province of Balochistan. Pakistan has the potential and capability to conduct targeted strikes inside India but it has always chosen to be a rational and responsible international actor.

Without having resort to dialogue, the uncertainty and differences between the both nuclear-armed rivals can never be resolved. Indian leadership has to rethink its strategy of madness with regard to relations with its neighboring rivals, because with the inception of nuclear weapons, direct wars between nuclear weapon states are considered to be unthinkable. However, if the leadership has a similar non-political extremist ideology like the current ruling government of India, then anything can be expected.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.