As India and Pakistan move South Asia towards another strategic flashpoint in a course of five years, the pattern signaling of such escalatory turn of events seems to be inextricably intertwined into multiple political optics in India post-Balakot aggression. The traditional stance offered by Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) after the Pahalgam attacks remains intact with India’s aggressive yet calculated policies towards its neighboring nuclear rival, Pakistan. All the previous engagements with Pakistan since the Pulwama-Balakot Crisis peddles a narrative with a repeatedly mechanical blend of political timing, military strategy, and media optics.

The recalibrated doctrine of electoral nationalism in India is not something new for South Asia’ s regional politics. The intensive focus on crafting an anti-Pakistan rhetoric before electoral battles through military operations highlights a methodical praxis of organized hyper-nationalistic sentiments and discursive framing by Modi’s India. Following this schematic model, In just five years, from Balakot to Peration Sindoor, India has launched two major cross-border operations in a manner consistent with the pattern of political instrumentalization of security issues related to South Asia.

The trend and manner in which these events have occurred still gives rise to security tensions between two nuclear rivals over theatrical securitization of Salami Slicing tactics to gain political traction

Notwithstanding, India has still maintained its postural composure by opting for strategic restraint to assert limited war tactics as it has targeted civilian sites again. Also, the trend and manner in which these events have occurred still gives rise to security tensions between two nuclear rivals over theatrical securitization of Salami Slicing tactics to gain political traction. The textbook example of Balakot reflects a unique case that acts as a blueprint for the world to dissect Modi’s symbolic political set-ups and militarized nationalism used for electoral gains.

The Balakot pattern serves as an architype for the world to understand Modi’s retaliatory pattern of using emotionally resonant tactics to stir up symbolically powerful sentiments in South Asia

The Balakot pattern serves as an architype for the world to understand Modi’s retaliatory pattern of using emotionally resonant tactics to stir up symbolically powerful sentiments in South Asia. Following the elections of India in 2019, the Balakot pattern can also be used as a case study to understand what India has been doing after the Pahalgam crisis now. In response to Pulwama, the BJP used security populism to invoke nationalistic sentiments at the edge of elections as a political maneuver to crystalize Modi’s overlordship in Indian politics. The attacks of Pulwama that were first classified as national grief, gradually transformed into a national outrage after an adept integration of anti-Pakistan narrative in it. The BJP revolved this narrative and displayed military retaliation as a prerequisite to protect national security while India’s nationalism and opposition’s concerns over alleged intelligence failure was surmounting. All of this resulted in Modi’s landslide victory in 2019 (Lok Sabha), displaying that national security and anti-Pakistan narrative will continue to benefit BJP’s divergent electoral doctrine, to say the least.

Cutting to the present, the attacks on Indian tourists in Indian-administrated Kashmir were preliminarily accepted by an offshoot of a militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba. These attacks sparked a battle of narratives in South Asia as India believes that Pakistan has covertly supported these attacks over its national security. Nevertheless, after Pakistan has frequently denied these accusing remarks and asserted Pahalgam as a false flag operation. India, on the other split, still believes in avenging the lives, national prestige, and sovereignty it has lost in these attacks by disturbing regional stability. Despite frequent efforts of co-venturing joint investigations and dissolving tensions in a strategic manner by Pakistan, Modi’s posture refuses to back down from the Chicken Game it has started in South Asia, often traced back to Balakot. The cycles of aggressive remarks, provocative tactics at the Line of Control (LoC), and BJP’s escalatory nature of marketing nationalism remains a precarious issue of national survival for South Asia’ security architecture.

The trending diagram of Pulwama now reflects in recent Pahalgam attacks as Modi’s returns in a similar fashion of using such attacks as a justification to target Pakistan, ignite nationalistic sentiments, and refer military action as the only available instrument aside from the unilateral suspension of Indus Water Treaty (IWT). The national shock from Pahalgam attacks in India gained enough fuel to throw hyper-nationalistic sentiments at Pakistan like spears. As the narrative escalated after being ignited by BJP’s rhetoric and Modi’s immediate return to India, this battle posed serious threats of a possible military action from India to Pakistan. Now that South Asia has reached the pinnacle of strategic flashpoints, India’s use of missiles as a retaliatory mechanism over Pakistan’s major civilian sites has completed another chapter from the Balakot course of using coercive military tactics. As the missile strikes now conforms with the narrative cycle, the next step of warfare seems to be adeptly creating its way through these zones of tensions: a battle of narratives and war claims.

This politically and strategically timed signaling mixes with recent military operation of India and the playbook that Modi has been following prior to every state election

The cycle of Modi’s sentiment engineering now looks at the elections that will act as potent tool for BJP to acquire substantial political power in India once again. The elections of Bihar in this year’s November, and the electoral mechanics of Karela, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu in 2026, all are going into polls that wiped off BJP in 2024. This politically and strategically timed signaling mixes with recent military operation of India and the playbook that Modi has been following prior to every state election.

The Murshidabad communal riots with an amplified scope of violence to the Malda district after the adaption of Waqf (Amendment) Bill has become a zone of crisis for BJP’s rhetoric making in the West Bengal. The potential diversion from this unsettling situation recenters the national narrative of BJP’s notional and strategic electoral doctrine that will bolster Modi’s position in these difficult electoral grounds. The Chief Minister of the West Bengal Mamata Banerjee continues to be a difficult opponent for BJP’s political manoeuvring as she frequently supported the Muslim majority and condemned BJP’s political moves. This paves a way for her to ably reinforce her position and reshuffle BJP’s postural adeptness in the state region for next elections.

The show of strategic defiance by ignoring the efforts of conflict mediators and normalization of cross-border operations displays the intensification of the Stability-instability Paradox  in regional politics, extending India’s doctrine of cross-border skirmishes to new heights

The Sindoor Operation is not just a politically calculated act of targeting non-military sites, but a geopolitical test for international mediators. By provoking Pakistan’s security and sovereignty, Modi seems to be pushing Pakistan to a limit of retaliation to further accelerate tensions between both nuclear powers over Kashmir by reinforcing its asserted international narrative. By doing so, Modi is gauging the international pressure to further engineer tactics constructed only to amplify the tensions in South Asia. The show of strategic defiance by ignoring the efforts of conflict mediators and normalization of cross-border operations displays the intensification of the Stability-instability Paradox  in regional politics, extending India’s doctrine of cross-border skirmishes to new heights.

Paying closer attention to each side through connecting previous operational dots dissects the transnational and domestic political signaling besides highlighting the potency electoral grounds have over regional stability

As India claims to have attacked nine key locations in Pakistan to target Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Muhammad, the non-civilian sites remain untouched which hints at a calculatedly manoeuvred operation. After a significant military stand-off between the two nuclear states, both India and Pakistan have substantial claims to market in-between the spectrum split that allows each side to enter in a win-win scenario. Hence, gradually reduce tensions by regularized strikes at the LoC or completely back-off from direct confrontation and shift to narrative battles. Paying closer attention to each side through connecting previous operational dots dissects the transnational and domestic political signaling besides highlighting the potency electoral grounds have over regional stability.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.