A new crisis is brewing, with an alarming uptick in cases of terrorism, sectarian violence, and political violence over the past year in Pakistan. By looking into the contributing variables, the illicit ammunition trafficking within the tribal regions down to the urban areas of Karachi has been found to have a direct connection. Zooming on in further, proliferation of small arms and light weapons (SALWs), though at the periphery of the mainstream discourse, tops the charts as a leading cause of internal security issues in Pakistan.
Pakistan Security Report 2024 reveals that the country suffered 521 terrorist attacks in 2024, a disturbing 70% increase compared to the previous year
Pakistan Security Report 2024 reveals that the country suffered 521 terrorist attacks in 2024, a disturbing 70% increase compared to the previous year. These attacks resulted in 852 citizen causalities, leaving over 1000 injured. In 271 of these attacks, direct infantry fire was the main method used. This was followed by 127 cases where improvised explosive devices were used and 74 attacks were carried out with hand grenades. These figures affirm SALWs as a core risk.
A Geneva-based survey, published in March 2025, disclosed that over the past two decades, NATO and non-NATO members have provided 600,000 SALWs to former Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF)
A significant part of this crisis can be traced back to the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in 2021. A Geneva-based survey, published in March 2025, disclosed that over the past two decades, NATO and non-NATO members have provided 600,000 SALWs to former Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF). The retreating US military left behind almost half of these arms including NATO standard weapons such as M4 and M16 rifles as well as the traditional soviet designed AK-variant rifles, among other high caliber ammunition. These serve as vulnerable and accessible small arms stockpiles. The prices of these weapons fell immediately in open and informal markets in provinces like Khost and Nangarhar. The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has been using well-known smuggling channels, which have existed for decades along the topographically complex Pakistan-Afghanistan border, to acquire them.
For Pakistan, the outcome has been drastic. The TTP, for instance, alone accounted for roughly 300 fatalities in 2024 while Baloch separatist factions such as the Baloch Liberation Army(BLA) conducted terrorist activities that resulted in 225 deaths. These militants possess alarming sophistication in their access to high-caliber arms. The UNSC Monitoring Team’s 2025 report suggests that during the recent high-impact attacks like the bombing of Mach Railway Bridge and the assault on Karachi Police Headquarters, terrorists employed US-grade weaponry, including rocket launchers and other explosives. Therefore, in essence, modestly armed police is then contending with enemies who are far better equipped and possess comparatively advanced weaponry.
The Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) has increased its focus on the persecution of religious minorities using easily accessible arms
The availability of new weapons has also contributed to a spike in sectarian violence. In Kurram district alone, in 2024, there were 234 deaths due to these sectarian conflicts, representing a sharp rise as compared to 43 deaths in 2023. The Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) has increased its focus on the persecution of religious minorities using easily accessible arms, trying to further deepen the prevalent fissures within society, leading to internal destabilization. These concerning patterns points to a grim reality: the spread of light weapons is not only a criminal problem, but an acute danger to the social and national fabric of Pakistan.
Keeping the urgency of the situation in mind, Pakistan has urged the UN to initiate an on-ground action under the Programme of Action (PoA) to retrieve arms from terrorist organizations like the Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan (TTP). During the Fourth Review Conference of the UN on SALW held in June 2024, the state drew attention to this issue while reaffirming its disarmament initiatives and legislative measures.
The current scenario looks rather bleak with reports acknowledging state-sponsored safe havens for leading TTP figures within Afghanistan
Having signed the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW), Pakistan also actively participates in disarmament conferences, however, success is contingent on cross-border cooperation. The current scenario looks rather bleak with reports acknowledging state-sponsored safe havens for leading TTP figures within Afghanistan. The Afghan interim government has not moved on such claims, further straining the already fragile diplomatic relations between the two countries.
The spread of small arms is not just a security problem; it is an attack on Pakistan’s sovereignty
Focusing inward, Pakistan has already strengthened legislative frameworks by enforcing strict transfer control laws to prevent the diversion of such arms to unregulated entities. The Arms Laws 2023 aims to accomplish just that. However, tackling SALW challenges is more of a symphony rather than a solo act and requires cross-border cooperation. Effective control requires joint efforts aimed at choking off supply routes through the use of advanced technologies like drones and biometric monitoring at border points from both sides.
The rising terrorism within Pakistan, attributed for the most part to the SALW proliferation, demands interventions that are transnational in nature. Hence, as Pakistan efficiently navigates this crisis through internal efforts, the extrinsic factor remains the linchpin which requires favorable diplomatic ties. The risk of doing nothing is too great. The spread of small arms is not just a security problem; it is an attack on Pakistan’s unity and sovereignty.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.
