Pakistan must rethink its export diversification strategy as global trade patterns undergo dramatic shifts due to geopolitical realignments, climate shocks, and slowing demand in traditional markets. The “Look Africa Policy Initiative, spearheaded by the Ministry of Commerce in 2017 and revitalised in recent years, represents a bold pivot toward one of the most dynamic yet underexplored regions in the world. With a population of over 1.4 billion people, a combined GDP of $2.8 trillion, and rising consumer demand, Africa offers enormous potential for Pakistan’s exports. Yet, this potential remains largely untapped.

Despite Africa comprising 18% of the world’s population, it receives just 7.3% of Pakistan’s global exports.

Pakistan’s current engagement with African region is diffident. According to the International Trade Centre, the country’s total bilateral trade with African countries in 2024 stood at $5.6 billion. Of this, exports accounted for just $2.3 billion while imports were $3.2 billion, highlighting a persistent trade deficit. Despite Africa accounting for approximately 18% of the world population, it only captures 7.3% of Pakistan’s global exports. This disconnect not only points to missed economic opportunities but also a lack of strategic foresight in building long-term trade relationships.

Pakistan’s top five exports to the African region in 2024 included cereals ($1.2 billion), other made-up textile articles ($297 million), cotton ($151 million), salt and sulphur ($108 million), and beverages, spirits and vinegar ($82 million). On the import side, significant African-origin products included mineral fuels, mineral oils ($866 million), coffee & tea ($624 million), oilseeds ($459 million), inorganic chemicals ($406 million) and residues & waste from food ($148 million). These figures display that while Pakistan has some product diversity in trade with Africa, the overall volumes remain far below potential.

Direct shipping routes could reduce freight time by 40% and costs by up to 20%.

One of the clearest examples of unrealized opportunity is South Africa, the African region’s most industrialized economy. According to ITC’s Export Potential Map, Pakistan’s total potential to South Africa stands at $182 million, with an unrealised potential of $94 million. The biggest opportunity lies in rice, with a $45 million potential, followed by apparel—ready-made garments ($37 million), home textiles ($17 million), cotton fabric ($12 million), and fish & shellfish ($12 million). Moreover, engineering products, such as electric fans, tractors and boring machines, hold immense potential, which are valued at $40 million. Despite high demand, a lack of preferential market access and institutional linkages keeps trade volumes stagnant.

Other African countries present similarly untapped opportunities. In 2024, Pakistan exported $421 million to Kenya, primarily rice and pharmaceuticals, whereas importing significant volumes of tea ($557 million). Egypt, North Africa’s largest economy, received $106 million in Pakistani exports, mainly in textiles, chemicals, and engineering goods. Nigeria, the continent’s largest economy and most populous country, imported just $49 million worth of Pakistani products, even though it offers a robust market for garments, processed foods, and light engineering goods.

South Africa imports parboiled rice, while Pakistan mainly exports non-parboiled varieties, an unmet $45 million annual opportunity.

Across these countries, barriers like high tariffs (ranging from 0% to 50%), non-tariff measures (NTMs), lack of market intelligence, and absence of direct banking and logistics links remain major constraints. In parallel, Pakistan needs crucial investment in logistics and trade infrastructure. Direct shipping routes to major African ports such as Mombasa (Kenya) and Durban (South Africa) could cut freight time by 40% and costs by 15-20%.

In addition to traditional sectors, new areas of opportunity are emerging. African countries are increasingly importing residues and waste from the food industry, a slice where Pakistan can leverage its agro-processing capabilities. Similarly, the cosmetics and beauty products market, particularly wigs and hairpieces, is currently dominated by China and India, offering export potential for Pakistan’s manufacturers.

Sports goods, including footballs and gloves (where Pakistan is already a global leader), can find receptive markets, especially in North and West Africa. Another underexplored avenue is the services sector, predominantly education consultancy services. Africa’s young population and rising middle class are increasingly seeking quality education abroad. Pakistani schools, colleges, and education consultants can attract African students by offering JVs or competitive programs at a lower cost compared to Western institutions.

Specific to the South African market, targeted action is necessary. Since 2015, South Africa has imposed anti-dumping duties on Pakistan’s cement, extending from 14% to 77%, which reduced exports from $80.9 million in 2014 to $11.2 million in 2021, with no exports recorded thereafter. Urgent negotiations are needed to remove these duties. Furthermore, South Africa primarily imports parboiled rice, while Pakistan traditionally exports non-parboiled varieties.

Investment in parboiling infrastructure would help tap into significant unmet demand estimated at $45 million annually. Pakistan’s electrical appliances industry, predominantly in electric fans, has an export potential of $30.2 million to South Africa but faces barriers related to brand awareness and competitiveness. Utilizing existing export incentives, such as a 5% duty drawback under the Look Africa Policy, and launching aggressive marketing campaigns could help Pakistan’s brands establish a footprint.

Africa presents more than economic opportunity, it is Pakistan’s entry point to a new global growth trajectory.

Finally, Pakistan must maximize its coal imports from South Africa, valued at approximately $413 million in 2024, as leverage in broader trade negotiations. This can be used to push for better tariff concessions and market access under a PTA with the Southern African Customs Union (SACU). The opportunities in Africa are immense and growing. If Pakistan acts decisively, joining smart diplomacy, investments in competitiveness, and sector-specific strategies under the Look Africa Initiative, Africa can offer more than just an economic partnership. It presents an opportunity for Pakistan to anchor itself in a new global growth trajectory rooted in South-South cooperation and mutual development.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.