A future where the nuclear launch codes, that are considered unpredictable today, could be cracked in a time of waving seconds, although that might seem ostensibly unimaginable right now. This hard-to-imagine future isn’t as distant as we may foresee. The exponential development in the field of Quantum Computing pretenses, an emerging challenge to Nuclear Command, Control, and Communication (NC3) systems, wherein the threat to global security, particularly to the encryption mechanisms shielding the NC3, looms large. In the tech race, therefore, major powers, like the U.S, Russia and China could be seen eager to safeguard their nuclear infrastructures to counter any such existential threats. On the other hand, with home to world’s most fragile nuclear rivalries, the region of South Asia remains vulnerable to the challenge, while at the same time being critically unprepared for it.

The breaches hitherto have been almost impossible, but, the lingering threat of quantum technology today, is defying that reality

Nuclear deterrence for the past few decades has been pivoting itself on immune and encrypted control and command systems to safeguard it from any unauthorized code breaking, hacking, or access to diabolical miscalculations based on the principles of classic computing. Assisted by its technicality, the breaches hitherto have been almost impossible, but, the lingering threat of quantum technology today, is defying that reality.

The quantum computers, opposite to classic computers leverage Qubits, that simultaneously exist in multiple states, rather than the former, that processes information in binary (0^s and 1^s). This is the crux that qualifies the quantum computers to perform exponentially fast, cracking the codes in minutes that would take the supercomputers a thousand years.

If the encryption fails, the early warning systems, missile launch codes, and 2^nd strike capabilities could be compromised

Yet, for the nuclear realm, if the encryption fails, the early warning systems, missile launch codes and 2^nd strike capabilities, could be compromised, eviscerating the very basis of deterrence and becoming an enigma having dire implications for the national security.

In the region of extreme mistrust due to military rivalries and competition, quantum decryption could further harness unduplicated instability. Where at one side of the coin, India’s continuous investments in quantum technologies take a lead, on the flip side, Pakistan lags far behind raising critical security concerns in this imbalance.

As the balance of deterrence remains at two polars’ with India and Pakistan, the deterrence thus remains vulnerable. In April 2024, through the efforts of Dr. Zuhair Ahmed and his team in Canada, the nation developed its first quantum computer, becoming the 19th that the Centre of Excellence for Technology, Quantum and AI designed the Quaid Quantum 1 (QQ1) to empower the industries in quantum computing. Yet, with a significant brain drain that alone in 2023 ousted 0.7 million young professionals abroad, has threatened Pakistan’s capacity to sustain its quantum initiatives, including 119% increase in emigration of highly educated people in search of better opportunities.

India has launched its National Quantum Mission, investing $740 Million approximately over an 8-year span

Au contraire, India has launched its National Quantum Mission, investing $740 Million approximately over an 8-year span. It is also collaborating with the dominant elites like US, Russia and Australia to build a 1,000-qubit quantum computer by the end of the decade that underscores Pakistan’s strategic imperative to accelerate its initiatives.  The twofold vulnerabilities of Pakistan; weak technical infrastructure and limited quantum research, makes the nation’s NC3 systems highly susceptible to the cyber threats, in further adding the quantum enabled attacks that weakens the already fragile security landscape of the state. Lagging behind this tech race would cost Pakistan in multiples, where its nuclear security could be compromised through no direct conflict but through the silent and unseen technological warfare.

Recommendations:

• While a nationwide PQC shift is impractical, the military and strategic sectors could collaborate with China’s quantum encryption programs to assert their strategic interests.
• The existing technical infrastructure indeed strives against the conventional threats making NC3’s safeguards even more intricate, but securing the NC3 networks through quantum resistant encryption, cyber protocols and air-gaped systems, could mark as an initial step.
• Via the China-Russia- led technical initiatives and Shanghai Cooperation organization, Pakistan could push forward for South Asian Quantum Security Forum to focus on crisis stability and nuclear risk reduction.
• Bilateral and regional collaborations by deepening cooperation with Turkey and Malaysia’s secure communication technology offers a viable alternative strategic alignment. Withal, China’s Quantum Science satellite initiative could provide with secure quantum communication for NC3’s resilience.
• Due to brain drain, as the talent pool seems shrinking in Pakistan, could further pose NC3 security, a long term risk, therefore, Pakistan’s nuclear security institutions may offer competitive pay and strategic roles for maintaining this domain.
• Crucial economic problems would pose a hindrance for quantum NC3 security, however, even 0.5-1% of defense budgets reallocation could offer a feasible solution for the twin digital technology’s and NC3’s communication upgrades. Encouraging the military-industrial investment in quantum security startups could also provide a self-sustaining funding approach.

The question on line isn’t whether the quantum technology will impact nuclear deterrence, but the preparedness of nations to prevent catastrophic consequences in case it happens is more pertinent.

Summing up we need to understand that Quantum Computing isn’t just a rapidly evolving but is also a converging concept. It can be further integrated with other emerging technologies making more nonlinear and innovative streams of technical concepts that could become a threat by redefining the nuclear security. The question on line isn’t whether the quantum technology will impact nuclear deterrence, but the preparedness of nations to prevent catastrophic consequences in case it happens is more pertinent. In the age of Quantum, perhaps the unbreakable code would no longer be a concept, but, strategic stability would be and therefore South Asia, cannot afford to wait.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.