The Pahalgam terrorist incident has opened a new chapter of tensions between India and Pakistan. Despite a lack of any concrete evidence, the Indian government has accused the Pakistan Army and the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) of supporting the perpetrators. The tragic incident unfolded on 22nd April, where several gunmen started shooting at tourists in broad daylight in Baisaran meadow located in Pahalgam town of Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK). The attack left 26 people dead, while leaving several injured, as per reports. This incident carries a lot of significance, particularly as it came at a critical juncture when the United States Vice President JD Vance was visiting India.
In the past two decades, other similar terrorist attacks took place, including the 2001 Parliament attack, the 2008 Mumbai incident, the 2016 Pathankot and Uri attacks, and the 2019 Pulwama attack
This is not a new phenomenon occurring for the first time – in the past two decades, other similar terrorist attacks took place, including the 2001 Parliament attack, the 2008 Mumbai incident, the 2016 Pathankot and Uri attacks, and the 2019 Pulwama attack. As a matter of fact, each incident followed the same escalation pattern – first, a terrorist incident takes place, and is immediately blamed on Pakistan without substantial evidence. Secondly, the Indian government is domestically pressured by people, media, and opposition to respond. Thirdly, diplomatic tensions rise, including the expulsion of diplomats and citizens of the opposing state from its territory. Fourthly, military posturing increases, and the escalation ladder climbs, involving incidents at some points. Lastly, followed by mediation efforts and de-escalation, but deepened mistrust in the long run.
The aftermath of the Pahalgam incident saw a similar pattern, representing India’s consistent behavior towards Pakistan in times of such crisis. Just as the Pahalgam attack took place, the whole Indian media started mass propaganda, blaming Pakistan for supporting the terrorists, despite lack of evidence. It was followed by the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) by the Indian government on 23rd April, and the announcement for Pakistani diplomats to leave India within 48 hours, as a move to punish Pakistan for alleged complicity.
The treaty endured for over 60 years through wars, military stand-offs, and diplomatic breakdowns without being compromised
While the expulsion of Pakistani diplomats from India might not represent a significant move, keeping the IWT in “abeyance” is a huge blow to the Pakistani government. Suspension does not really refer to complete cut-off, rather it means that India is no longer bound by the treaty’s restrictions on how it uses water from the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab), potentially allowing it to build new hydropower projects or storage facilities and control water flow more autonomously. The treaty endured for over 60 years through wars, military stand-offs, and diplomatic breakdowns without being compromised. However, this time it is in question, which will have significant implications for the policymakers, and the millions of people dependent on the water system and crops.
In response, the National Security Committee meeting was convened by Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif on 24th April, warned that any attempt by India to block water flow into Pakistan would be treated as an act of war
In response, the National Security Committee meeting was convened by Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif on 24th April, warned that any attempt by India to block water flow into Pakistan would be treated as an act of war. In an attempt to respond reciprocally, the committee also suspended the Simla Agreement (which recognized the LOC and is key to resolve bilateral disputes peacefully), closed airspace for Indian owned/operated flights, ended all forms of trade, and closed the Wagah border to all Indian land transit with immediate effect. These actions shows the importance of IWT to Pakistan as the Indus waters are the bloodline for state’s agriculture and economy.
Prime Minister of India Narendar Modi, while addressing a public rally in Bihar, stated that “India will identify, track and punish every terrorist”
On the same day, the Prime Minister of India Narendar Modi, while addressing a public rally in Bihar, stated that “India will identify, track and punish every terrorist” and their “backers” – referring to alleged involvment of its long-standing rival. Pakistan has repeatedly rejected these allegations, as they lack logic – a country which even today remains a victim to terrorist activities, why would it sponsor an attack on an innocent tourists? In contrast, India’s intelligence agency RAW itself has consistently supported terrorists on Pakistan’s soil, specifically providing financial support to the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in regions of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
India’s immediate accusations on Pakistan without transparent investigation and shared evidence, signals the former’s intent to set grounds for justified punitive action, rather than to address the matter at hand. It was simply an intelligence failure, showing the loop holes present in India’s defense strategy despite having deployed such a large number of troops in the IIOJK.
Pakistan has always shown a firm resolve to combating terrorism on its soil – evident through its anti-terrorism operations in the past two decade
Pakistan has always shown a firm resolve to combating terrorism on its soil – evident through its anti-terrorism operations in the past two decades. However, the incidents taking place in IIOJK require a collaborative approach, for which Pakistan has always offered a hand to India, yet ignored each time. This time again, PM Shahbaz said Pakistan was open to any “neutral and transparent” investigation into the Pahalgam attack, which has not recieved New Delhi’s attention yet.
Instead, India always choose a risky path – involving diplomatic attrition and the so-called surgical strikes, which lead to further instability as evident from the past events. India’s escalation gambit is a direct threat to South Asian strategic stability – given the presence of nuclear weapons on both sides. Further escalation from this point simply means sleepwalking into disaster.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.
