Many presume, including some from the rival state, that Pakistan has not yet carried out Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) test and it is India that has tested for the first time this capability in South Asia. More recently, India tested MIRV technology over Agni-V ranging from 3000km to 5000km.

Pakistan’s MIRV test in 2017 with the Ababeel missile challenged India’s ballistic missile defense system.

However, it is equally important to note that Pakistan has already successfully tested MIRV technology in January 2017 when it tested a Medium Range Ballistic Missile (MRBM) Ababeel ranging from 2,200km. Ababeel which has become a credible surface-to-surface ballistic missile can carry multiple warheads to hit multiple targets in multiple locations.

According to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), “The test flight was aimed at validating various design and technical parameters of the weapon system…Ababeel is capable of carrying nuclear warheads and can engage multiple targets with high precision, defeating the enemy’s hostile radars.”

Furthermore, the statement reads, “Development of Ababeel Weapon System is aimed at ensuring survivability of Pakistan’s ballistic missiles in the growing regional Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) environment. This will further reinforce deterrence.”

India’s development of BMD systems and hypersonic capabilities raises the stakes in South Asia.

In the arms race for MIRVing, the United States was the first country to develop MIRV technology in the early 1970s followed by the Soviet Union and other nuclear weapon states. It is reported that Russia may MIRV up to 16 warheads of both the ICBMs and the SLBMs.

MIRVs are much more sophisticated and can hit multiple targets in multiple locations compared to multiple reentry vehicles (MRVs) where multiple warheads hit one target. The rationale for MIRVing was primarily to defeat the deployed defensive systems. That being noted, Pakistan’s rationale for developing and testing MIRV technology is to defeat India’s BMD.

India has been working to develop two types of BMD systems: the first tier is the Prithvi Air Defense (PAD) capable of intercepting high-altitude incoming missiles and the second tier is the Advanced Air Defense (AAD) capable of intercepting the low altitude missiles. The Indian security leadership might be pondering expanding its BMD system and make the perceived defensive system more sophisticated and embracing advanced technologies.

To counter India’s BMD, Pakistan may need to enhance its hypersonic missile technology.

India has been the first mover to develop a ballistic missile defense system to protect its major cities, if not the entire India, from the decisive incoming missiles in the broader Southern Asian region. A single factor may not help us understand the rationale for India’s acquisition of the BMD system.

However, the deployed defensive system may provide India the shield and sword incentives. Many perceive that India will have the incentive to strike first with the false incentives to shield itself since the defensive systems can be defeated by offensive speed in the form of a high hypersonic system.

As a part of effective countermeasures like the rivals do against each other, Pakistan has tested MIRV technology to undermine the defensive capability of India’s BMD and its other sophisticated air defense systems. To retain deterrence balance in South Asia, Pakistan may also need to speed up its other countermeasures such as hypersonic missile capability, which can penetrate the adversary territory and hit the targets quite efficiently without bothering much about the rival sophisticated defensive systems.

Strategic stability in South Asia hinges on effective countermeasures and maintaining deterrence.

It is reported that the Pakistan Air Force has developed hypersonic missile capability after it acquired stealth fighter jets. Many may argue that there is no substantial defensive mechanism to intercept hypersonic weapons. Presumably and quite ambitiously, the defensive systems could be converted into some type of hypervelocity to intercept the incoming hypersonic missile.

However, many may argue that it is not the hypervelocity, but the maneuverability that matters. In any case, speed matters too, which makes the potential adversary vulnerable to preemptive strikes. India has already developed a BrahMos supersonic cruise missile. It has now been trying to turn this into hypersonic missile capability.

In doing so, India is being tempted to escalate dominance and counterforce preemptive strikes in South Asia, which potentially increases crisis instability, arms race, and unintended consequences. Pakistan will need to produce effective countermeasures to offset India’s offensive capabilities. This is to retain deterrence balance and ensure broader strategic stability in South Asia.