Pakistan faces a critical challenge, compelled to protect its people from the rising wave of terrorism while at the same time successfully navigating the delicate task of mending fractured relations with Afghanistan.

On December 24, 2024, Pakistan’s Military conducted airstrikes on Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) hideouts and facilities inside Afghanistan. The retaliation from the Taliban on December 28 plunged the diplomatic engagement between the two countries to a new low. Mullah Khairullah Khairkhwa, the Afghan Government Minister of Information, referred to the TTP as “honored guests” and said the Afghan government should continue sheltering them, a remark that confirmed Islamabad’s concerns that Kabul is providing sanctuaries to the TTP militants.

The meeting between India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri and Afghan acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi has become an additional cause of concern for Pakistan

The meeting between India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri and Afghan acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi has become an additional cause of concern for Pakistan regarding its security and regional standing. All these instances point towards a need for a broader view of the situation. Pakistan faces the challenge of attaining security by eliminating the TTP threat, and at the same time, urgently needs to stabilize relations with the Afghan government.

With the Afghan Taliban coming into power in 2021, Pakistanis were hoping that there will be an end to the cross-border terrorism by TTP. However, this optimism has been replaced by grim realities. Cross-border skirmishes, increasing militant activity, and Kabul’s defiant rhetoric have turned down Pakistan’s hopes of peaceful existence.

2024 was a deadly year for security forces and civilians. With over 1,612 fatalities in 444 terrorist attacks, crucial projects, among them the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), were impacted

The rising wave of terrorist attacks in Pakistan poses a serious threat to national security, demanding an urgent and strategic response. According to the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), 2024 was a deadly year for security forces and civilians. With over 1,612 fatalities in 444 terrorist attacks, crucial projects, among them the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), were impacted. Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) has increased its terrorist operations on security personnel, and Chinese workers. The deliberate targeting of Chinese workers and projects signals a goal by terrorist groups to damage the long-standing bilateral relations between Pakistan and China. Some analysts have observed that the US weapons that had been left behind in Afghanistan post-US withdrawal have fallen into the hands of these terrorist entities, resulting in increased terror activities in Pakistan.

The absolute support of the Taliban has also encouraged TTP to increase its wave of terrorist attacks against Pakistan since the Taliban government has refused to take any sort of action against TTP despite many requests from Pakistan. The current political climate in the region has created an opportunity for India to open dialogue with the Taliban to use Afghan territory for its objectives. India also sees an opportunity in trade and connectivity with Iran and Central Asia by having cordial relations with Afghanistan.

The recent decision to allow Taliban to use Chabahar port situated in Iran points towards Taliban successfully crafting their own path for trade and connectivity with the world

The Taliban are reaching out to regional countries and beyond. The expanding nature of relations of the Taliban regime with other countries signals reduced reliance on Pakistan. The recent decision to allow Taliban to use Chabahar port situated in Iran points towards Taliban successfully crafting their own path for trade and connectivity with the world. These developments challenge Pakistan’s strategic position as a main corridor for Afghanistan to the outer world and demand the need to revisit its Afghan policy.

Terrorism mainly spreads in areas where governance is weak and citizens feel unsatisfied with the system

The counterterrorism strategy of Pakistan should focus more on political and economic stability rather than solely relying on kinetic measures. Terrorism mainly spreads in areas where governance is weak and citizens feel unsatisfied with the system. The feelings of alienation of citizens are exploited by militant groups, compelling them to act against the interests of the State. Balochistan and KP have experienced a total of 95% terrorist attacks, showcasing substantial grounds for terrorist activities in these regions. Pakistan should act decisively and introduce social development programs focused on education, healthcare, and employment opportunities for the youth of both provinces. This will potentially decrease feelings of marginalization, and people will start to regain their trust in the State.

Pakistan should use a pragmatic approach and continue to have communication channels open with the Taliban regime. However, negotiating with the TTP should be avoided as it gives the group moral and political legitimacy. Instead, Islamabad should maintain a cordial relationship with Kabul based on mutual interests to address shared security issues.

Pakistan can use international forums such as the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to pressure the Taliban government to stop providing support and sanctuaries to the TTP

One crucial area where Pakistan has the leverage over the TTP and Taliban is that it will also be able to address their security concerns emanating from Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP). Both countries can collaborate to eliminate the mutual enemy which is ISKP, and then Pakistan will be in a strong position to ask the Taliban regime to either eliminate or relocate the TTP fighters away from the border. Taliban are hesitant to act against the TTP due to its fears that the latter will join hands with ISKP and mutually act against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Pakistan can position itself as a strong partner for broader security cooperation by offering its help to the Taliban to fight against ISKP.

Moreover, Pakistan can use international forums such as the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to pressure the Taliban government to stop providing support and sanctuaries to the TTP. Taliban has been mainly facing restrictions to build meaningful relations with the West after the US withdrawal. Pakistan can offer its help to the Taliban in forming ties with the West. This will open doors of opportunities for economic prosperity based on the conditions of the Taliban taking action against TTP. Pakistan needs to maintain stable and cooperative relations with Afghanistan for the betterment of internal and regional security.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.