Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and highly influential Chief of General Staff Asim Munir participated in the second trilateral summit with Azerbaijan and Turkiye in late May. This greatly strengthened their ties, which is among Pakistan’s top policy priorities. Pakistan has a hybrid Turko-Persian heritage, hence the affinity that their people feel for one another. Azeris and Turks support Pakistan against India, while Pakistanis support them against Armenia and Greece-Cyprus, respectively.
Pakistan’s foreign policy priorities nowadays extend beyond its traditional concentration on South Asia.
Azerbaijan and Turkiye have begun to play more prominent roles in Pakistani foreign policy over the past few years. Despite the April 2022 controversial change in government, Pakistan still retained some of the prior government’s focus on expanding ties with like-minded non-Western countries. The intent is to reduce the country’s disproportionate dependence on the US and China while also fulfilling its self-assumed role as a leading member of the international Muslim community (“Ummah”).
For geographic reasons, the strengthening of Pakistan’s ties with Azerbaijan and Turkiye necessitates repairing previously troubled ones with Iran, which is why Sharif and Munir also paid a visit to Tehran during their four-country tour that included those other two and ended in Tajikistan. The larger goal is to unlock the western vector of overland trade with Eurasia, especially along the North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC) to Russia via the route’s western branch across Azerbaijan, which is another top priority.
The larger goal is to unlock the western vector of overland trade with Eurasia.
Expanding trade with the Central Asian Republics is important too, but it’s more difficult than with Azerbaijan, Turkiye, and Russia due to serious tensions with Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, which could impede transit across its territory and lead to delays on their planned trilateral railway with Uzbekistan. That doubly landlocked country is Azerbaijan and Turkiye’s fellow Organization of Turkic States’ (OTS) member, which has Central Asia’s fastest-growing economy, its largest population, and strongest armed forces.
It’s, therefore, naturally Pakistan’s envisaged top partner in the region too, but Tajikistan shares Pakistan’s concerns about the Taliban’s patronage of regional terrorist groups so Islamabad balances between them. As the reader likely realized by now, Pakistan’s foreign policy priorities nowadays extend beyond its traditional concentration on South Asia to include parts of West Asia, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia, thus making it a geopolitical force to be reckoned with if it can overcome several obstacles.
Pakistan’s envisaged top partner in the region is Uzbekistan.
About those, they’re its newfound closeness with the US, weak economy, corruption, ongoing political crisis, and the upsurge in Afghan-emanating terrorism, all of which should be taken seriously.
Accordingly, it’s hypothetically possible that Pakistan slips back into its role as a US proxy, goes broke and can’t bankroll its geo-economic plans, fumbles the implementation of the aforesaid, scares away investors due to its instability, and becomes too dangerous a place to do business in.
In any case, observers should still monitor its regional moves. Even if its ambitions are only partially fulfilled, they can geo-economically and even geopolitically reshape this strategic portion of Eurasia.
The Turkic element in Azerbaijan and Turkiye occupies a special place in Pakistani planning.
It’s all dependent on Pakistani-Iranian ties, but the Turkic element with Azerbaijan and Turkiye occupies a special place in Pakistani planning. If they ally, then the consequences could reverberate widely, possibly complicating Iran’s interests and certainly India’s, Armenia’s, Greece’s, and Cyprus’s.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.
