When the waters came in 2022, they did not knock. They tore through the Sindh plains like a bulldozer, swallowing homes, livestock, and roads. For 33 million people, the monsoon season became a long, drowning. Yet three years later, in 2025, the threat facing Pakistan is not only water but also fire, in the form of unrelenting, record-shattering heat.

Despite contributing less than 1 percent of global emissions, Pakistan is among the most climate-vulnerable countries.

Pakistan’s climate crisis is no longer theoretical. It is unfolding in real time, reshaping landscapes, displacing communities, and testing the state’s capacity to cope. Despite contributing less than 1 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, Pakistan remains among the most climate-vulnerable countries on earth, as confirmed by Germanwatch’s Climate Risk Index.

In May 2025, Turbat in Balochistan recorded 50.2°C, just shy of its 2017 high of 53.5°C, one of the hottest temperatures ever reliably measured on Earth. The Pakistan Meteorological Department confirmed that June 2025 was the hottest June on record, with average temperatures across southern Sindh 6°C above normal.

Dr Fahad Saeed, South Asia lead at Climate Analytics, explained during a panel at COMSATS University in Islamabad that early-season heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense. ‘The heat is not just hotter. It is arriving earlier and lasting longer. Our bodies and infrastructure are not built for this shift, he said.

High in the Karakoram, where glaciers feed the Indus River system, climate change is triggering a different kind of disaster. In June 2025, melting ice from unusually high spring temperatures caused a glacial lake outburst in Gilgit-Baltistan’s Ghizer district. Satellite images released by SUPARCO showed a collapsed glacier-fed lake, unleashing a wall of water that swept away roads, power lines, and six villages.

According to the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Pakistan’s glaciers are retreating faster than previously forecasted. Their 2023 report warned that by 2100, up to 80 percent of glaciers in the Hindukush-Himalaya region could vanish. This would permanently alter the freshwater supply across the country.

In May 2025, Turbat recorded 50.2°C, with June being the hottest on record across southern Sindh.

This glacial decline feeds directly into water insecurity. National per capita water availability has plunged from over 5,000 cubic meters in the 1950s to below 850 today. The Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources classifies anything under 1,000 as water stress and anything under 500 as absolute scarcity. Many parts of Balochistan and southern Punjab are already below this threshold.

The Indus Delta, once the sixth-largest in the world, has shrunk by 90 percent. UNEP attributes this to reduced river flow and rising sea levels pushing seawater inland. Karachi’s sea level is rising at around 1.2 mm per year, based on data from PMD and global satellite monitoring. The risk to farmland, homes, and infrastructure is steadily increasing.

Agriculture employs over a third of Pakistan’s population and contributes nearly one-fifth of GDP. It is extremely vulnerable to climate shifts. In 2022, floods destroyed half of the cotton crop. In 2024, spring heat damaged mango orchards in Multan and citrus groves in Sargodha. Punjab’s Agriculture Department reported citrus yields fell by as much as 40 percent.

The World Bank’s 2023 climate risk profile warned that Pakistan may face an 18 to 20 percent drop in agricultural productivity by 2050. The causes include erratic rainfall, more pests, and warmer nights that disrupt pollination.

Climate change is driving a quiet but dangerous health crisis. In May 2023, Lahore’s Mayo Hospital recorded over 2,000 heatstroke cases in one week. In 2025, Services Hospital ran out of IV fluids within days of the first heatwave.

After the 2022 floods, WHO and the Ministry of Health recorded over 1.3 million malaria cases and tens of thousands of dengue infections in Sindh. These outbreaks are becoming routine. Respiratory problems, waterborne diseases, and cardiovascular stress are rising among the poor. But health infrastructure remains poorly adapted to these risks, especially outside big cities.

Karachi, Lahore, and Islamabad are suffering from the urban heat island effect. In June 2025, PMD recorded surface temperatures in Lahore above 52°C. Heat is trapped by asphalt, concrete, and glass, intensifying discomfort and danger. Blackouts during peak heat have become routine. ‘One hour without a fan in this heat is like sitting in an oven’, said a Korangi resident in Karachi.

Water availability has plunged from over 5,000 to below 850 cubic meters per capita, marking severe water stress.

Drainage systems collapse under flash floods. In June 2025, Rawalpindi and Peshawar saw multiple road cave-ins caused by the combined stress of heat and storms on old infrastructure. Urban resilience remains mostly on paper. Nearly one-third of Pakistan’s energy comes from hydropower. Its reliability depends on glacier melt and rainfall, both increasingly erratic. In May 2025, low reservoir levels caused widespread power shortages just as demand surged.

Imported fuel remains expensive, and household electricity bills are unaffordable for many. This crisis has spurred solar expansion. The International Energy Agency reported that Pakistan added over 1.2 GW of solar capacity in 2024. Lahore and Islamabad have expanded net-metering, and rooftop solar is growing fast. Karachi’s Red Line Bus Rapid Transit, expected in 2026, will be Pakistan’s first electric bus corridor.

Still, national-scale renewable integration is slow. Grid instability, poor energy storage, and inconsistent policy continue to hold back progress. Pakistan’s updated Nationally Determined Contributions commit to cutting emissions by 15 percent by 2030, with a conditional pledge of another 35 percent if international support is provided.

The Billion Tree Tsunami and Living Indus initiatives appear bold. The Living Indus plan includes over two dozen projects aimed at restoring forests, wetlands, and rivers. Yet a 2023 parliamentary audit revealed that nearly one-third of the afforestation budget was either unspent or lacked verification.

Climate finance mechanisms remain weak, and provincial governments often lack the skills or systems needed to implement plans. UNDP’s 2024 report estimates Pakistan’s climate needs at over 340 billion dollars through 2030. Only a small share of that has been secured.

In Tharparkar, high temperatures and water shortages force children to leave school and help fetch water. Women walk miles to dried-up wells, babies strapped to their backs. These are Pakistan’s climate migrants. The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre reports over 9 million climate-related displacements in Pakistan between 2010 and 2024. That figure may double by 2050.

Women carry the heaviest burden, they are often excluded from planning. Still, UN Women has found that women-led community projects in Sindh and Gilgit tend to deliver better outcomes. At COP27 in Egypt, the climate minister Sherry Rehman called Pakistan the ‘ground zero for climate injustice’. She noted that nations like Pakistan suffer most despite contributing the least.

Over 9 million climate-related displacements have occurred in Pakistan since 2010, disproportionately impacting women and children.

The 2023 Resilient Pakistan conference in Geneva brought pledges of over 9 billion dollars. But most of that remains undelivered due to delays, political changes, and donor fatigue. Pakistan continues to demand action on the Loss and Damage Fund under UNFCCC. It supports the proposed Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty and joins other Global South countries seeking fair transition models. The path forward is known. Pakistan must:

• Build early warning systems and elevated, resilient housing
• Reform water governance using smart irrigation and basin-wide planning
• Scale up local solar and clean energy systems
• Upgrade hospitals to handle climate-related health pressures
• Empower women and local authorities to lead adaptation efforts
• Strengthen disaster response systems across all provinces

The world must respond, not from pity, but from obligation. Climate justice means that those most at risk receive the tools, finance, and partnerships needed to survive and adapt. Climate change is no longer a warning in Pakistan.

It is a lived reality, from Karachi’s vanishing coast to Gilgit’s collapsing glaciers, from Sargodha’s ruined orange groves to Lahore’s overheated hospitals. It is the dry taps, the bare fields, and the silent graves of those who never caused this crisis. Pakistan is facing a test of survival. Its resilience is genuine but not limitless. The clock is no longer ticking. It may already be out of time.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.