With the shift in global power dynamics and America’s policy to contain Chinese global outreach, the reassessment of Pakistan’s ties with US based on Islamabad’s essential importance is more crucial now than ever. The Sino-US ties present balancing act for Pakistan in the aftermath of changing geostrategic environment. The prospects of which are provided by Islamabad’s inclination towards a shift from geo-politics to geo-economics and US’ troops pullout from Kabul and its interest in re-building Sino-US ties. In lieu of prevailing strategic environment of the world, it is imperative to build ties and partnerships through strength and positives that already exists. The expectation of a broad-based bilateral ties of Pak-US seems to be on track.
In last few years, US direct investment in Pakistan increased by 50%, taking it to highest level. Apart from defense cooperation, consumer goods, chemicals, energy, agriculture, business process out-sourcing, transportation, and communications are the major area of investment and cooperation between two states.
As per estimates of IMF, Pakistan is 5th biggest state in terms of population and ranked as 44th largest economy in 2022. The US has long been Pakistan’s largest export market, importing more than $5 billion in Pakistani goods in 2021-22, far surpassing any other country. The US has also been a leading investor in Pakistan for the past 20 years. In last few years, US direct investment in Pakistan increased by 50%, taking it to highest level. Apart from defense cooperation, consumer goods, chemicals, energy, agriculture, business process out-sourcing, transportation, and communications are the major area of investment and cooperation between two states. The US has also sought to deepen commercial ties with Pakistan, including through engagement by senior officials from US Department of Commerce, Department of State, and US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) with Pakistani leaders. However, Pakistan’s business climate has areas that need to be strengthened, including regulation, intellectual property protection, and taxation. The US continues to work with Pakistan to achieve business climate enhancements.
Pakistan extended ground support, air space and other logistical facilitations to NATO for conducting their operations in Afghanistan. In return, during its presence in Afghanistan, successive US administrations had been supporting Pakistan politically, economically and militarily.
During the George Bush’s tenure as US President, America declared Pakistan as ‘non-NATO’ ally. Pakistan’s former military ruler Pervez Musharraf joined hands with America to eliminate terrorists inside Afghanistan. In addition to this, Pakistan extended ground support, air space and other logistical facilitations to NATO for conducting their operations in Afghanistan. In return, during its presence in Afghanistan, successive US administrations had been supporting Pakistan politically, economically and militarily.
Likewise, Pakistan was a close US ally during the cold war that began. Pakistan partnered with US in various counter-terrorism activities as well to bring peace in the region. Their bilateral ties have seen many ups and downs during America’s invasion of US. The bilateral ties between two states soured when Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden was found in Abbottabad and Obama administration took him out without informing Pakistan. Their ties have remained strained since then, although bilateral consultations, even high-level visits by Pakistani rulers to Washington, have continued.
Pakistan seeking relations anchored in a mutually benefitting bilateral exchange, a shift from traditional security lens is imperative. As a consequence of transforming regional and global dynamics, the present phases of ties are currently in transition. With the realignment of ties taking place in both countries, a reassessment of bilateral ties becomes crucial.
Regarding Afghan conflict, Pakistan extended full support to both Trump and Biden administrations during their talks with Afghan Taliban and facilitated the evacuation of US personnel from Afghanistan after the Taliban captured Kabul. Pakistan, on its part, has been pushing both Taliban and US to find peaceful solution to Afghan conflict. Pakistan played pivotal role in bringing both Taliban and US on the negotiating table to end the war in Afghanistan. However, after pulling out troops from Afghanistan, US alienated Pakistan not only politically but militarily as well. The abrupt US decision of leaving Afghanistan had created security dilemma for Pakistan. The US, since then, stopped engaging Pakistan at strategic level, economic and political levels.
However, recent strategic environment in the region is compelling US to engage Pakistan at strategic front. Therefore, for the first time in last few years, US emphasized its strategic partnership with Pakistan, while saying Islamabad doesn’t need to strain its ties with China to maintain relationship with Washington. Recently, Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto visited US and announced that both countries will start dialogues on counter-terrorism domain next month. Some recent developments such as India’s decision to abstain from UN Security Council vote on Ukraine and a missile deal with Russia apparently have also softened the US attitude towards Pakistan.
Strategic environment in the region is compelling US to engage Pakistan at strategic front. Therefore, for the first time in last few years, US emphasized its strategic partnership with Pakistan, while saying Islamabad doesn’t need to strain its ties with China to maintain relationship with Washington.
With Pakistan seeking relations anchored in a mutually benefitting bilateral exchange, a shift from traditional security lens is imperative. As a consequence of transforming regional and global dynamics, the present phases of ties are currently in transition. With the realignment of ties taking place in both countries, a reassessment of bilateral ties becomes crucial. It requires a partnership that is predicated on developing the relationship exclusive of singular agendas and factors extraneous to bilateral relations. Moreover, the relations must seek a broad based association and alliance that is multifaceted and multi-tier with an increased focus on nontraditional challenges such as climate change, energy, water scarcity, and food and human security.
The relations must seek a broad based association and alliance that is multifaceted and multi-tier with an increased focus on nontraditional challenges such as climate change, energy, water scarcity, and food and human security.
There are multiple opportunities for collaborations in areas that are non-security in nature. Pakistan US ties even during the lowest of the lows have remained workable and cordial. As Pakistan pivots its focus to geo-economics it can reset as well as leverage its relations with US in multiple non-strategic and non-security areas. The ingredients needed to build a secure and broad-based relationship are there it only needs to be anchored correctly.
The current US engagement with Pakistan offers certain lessons for American policymakers. The US must help Pakistan pursue a path that meets its people’s democratic aspirations and socioeconomic needs and is resilient enough to accommodate regional, religious, and sectarian differences. Only such a course can help Pakistan become a stable and responsible member of the international community, at peace with itself and with its neighbors.
The US must help Pakistan pursue a path that meets its people’s democratic aspirations and socioeconomic needs and is resilient enough to accommodate regional, religious, and sectarian differences.
Lastly, in recent years, China has emerged as the key factor in US foreign policies as Washington seeks to contain Beijing’s growing influence. US policy makers see India as a key player in containing China’s influence and in their efforts to please India, they often ignore Pakistan’s interests, even on issues like Kashmir.
The writer is an Islamabad based expert of strategic affairs.