Trump storm has hit the world more like a category-5 hurricane. It has hit America’s traditional friends more than her foes. If you really want to dodge the Trump bullet, you better stay off his radar, we are told. Thank God Pakistan has stayed off his radar since he started his second stint on January 20. Actually, Pakistan has had very chilly relations with the US since the withdrawal of troops and Taliban government in Kabul on August 15, 2021. Pakistan’s relations with the US have been in a state of limbo since Imran Khan and no thaw has taken place even after arrival of PDM-1 or the PDM-2 that has just completed its first year.

The only signal that came from Trump during his State Of the Union address on March 4/5 is when he thanked the government of Pakistan for helping the arrest and extradition of the ISIS terrorists

From its next-door neighbours like Mexico and Panama to the South and Canada, to its north, seven plus decades old Trans-Atlantic partnership with Europe to its recent tightest buddy Ukraine, everybody had the taste of their own Trump medicine. What is clear that under Trump 2.0, barring a few exceptions like Israel, his administration cares more about geo-economics than geo-politics. While both the current governments in Islamabad and its arch rival PTI led by its incarcerated leader Imran Khan have tried their best to get the attention of the Trump administration for the opposite goals, the Trump administration has remained oblivious of the attempts. The only signal that came from Trump during his State Of the Union address on March 4/5 is when he thanked the government of Pakistan for helping the arrest and extradition of the ISIS terrorists responsible for 13 Americans during the troops withdrawal in 2021, opens a small window of possible cooperation. But mind you, it is a small window which may get bigger or even shut down, depending upon the global factors related to terrorism and how it might affect the US.

With America under Trump winding down US geo strategic role, abandoning multilateral institutions and expanding economic competition with China, experts like Washington based Uzair Younus of the Atlantic Center have advised Pakistan to forget about the old geo strategic partnerships of the cold war era and open up with Washington on geo-economic issues like partnership, investment and cooperation in rare earth metals, telecommunications and emerging technologies. This is much more important because, while Pakistan’s export destination remains the US and the Europe, and Pakistan uses multilateral forums like IMF and the World Bank for economic and financial stability, with Trump 2.0, the future of these multilateral forums too is in the doldrums.While this may sound like a crisis, it can also be an opportunity to align our economy, political order and the state system with the new emerging global order with the formal demise of the US as the sole super power.

Pakistan has tough choices to make. While on one hand Pakistan cannot sacrifice the strategic partnership with China, it can’t afford to lose US and the European markets

Pakistan has tough choices to make. While on one hand Pakistan cannot sacrifice the strategic partnership with China, it can’t afford to lose US and the European markets at the time of this crisis when Europeans have to spend more on their new security architecture created by their rupture with the US.Pakistan must keep its house in order, slash top heavy government structures both at the federal and provincial levels and bring them to the requirements of the AI arena rather than the system of pen pushers of 1960s. While the country’s IT exports are on the rise, there is a greater need of entering into agreements with the US and other European countries on extraction and mining of rare earth elements (REEs).

For decades, Pakistan’s vast deposits of lithium, copper, rare earth elements (REEs), and other critical minerals have remained unutilized due to a lack of investment and infrastructure development. Lack of a transparent and hassle free regulatory framework too has been a major hurdle. One of the major tasks of the Special Investment Facilitation Council too was to remove these bottlenecks and create one window operation to facilitate the process.

We are told that SIFC, in collaboration of the federal and provincial governments, is in the process of finalizing a new Mineral Policy to tap these unutilized resources. The major contours of the policy have already been discussed in the last apex committee of the SIFC and a final version is expected to be approved in the next meeting.

Pakistan possesses substantial reserves of critical minerals, many of which are essential for industries ranging from electric vehicles (EVs) and semiconductors to aerospace and defence

Pakistan’s current government seems cognizant of the value of the country’s resources and it seems willing to invest heavily in infrastructure and industry. This means Pakistan can mobilize the mining and processing of its natural resources without delay and is ready to do business with the world. At a time when all super powers including the US are racing for the REEs, now is the perfect time to engage the US to invest in this emerging market.

Pakistan possesses substantial reserves of critical minerals, many of which are essential for industries ranging from electric vehicles (EVs) and semiconductors to aerospace and defence. Despite these riches, Pakistan’s mineral sector remains largely untapped, making it one of the last frontiers for large-scale mining investment and a sleeping giant in the mineral industry.

Some of the key mineral assets include:
o Lithium: Essential for EV batteries and renewable energy storage.
o Rare Earth Elements (REEs): Crucial for advanced electronics, defense technologies, and telecommunications.
o Copper: A vital material for electric grids, wiring, and infrastructure development.
o Gold: A significant asset for economic stability and international trade.

While the government has recognized the enormous potential of the mining sector and seems eagerly pursuing to attract foreign investment. Recent policy shifts include:
o Tax incentives for mining companies and investors;
o Relaxed regulatory policies to encourage exploration and extraction; and
o Bilateral investment MoUs aimed at facilitating international partnerships that have already taken place.
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Pakistan has a big advantage due to its geographical location. Located at the intersection of South Asia, the Middle East, and Central Asia, it offers key access points to major global markets:
o Gwadar Port: one of the deepest seaports in the region, providing a direct trade route for mineral exports;
o CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor): an existing infrastructure network that can be leveraged to enhance mining logistics; and
o Proximity to China, India, and the Middle East: Pakistan is a cost-effective supply hub for regional and global markets.

By investing in Pakistan, the US not only can secure critical minerals but can also gain a strategic advantage in having access to major mineral trade routes. With growing demand for these materials and a global push for alternative supply chains, Pakistan can emerge as a partner with the US. The US Exim Bank has already identified Pakistan as a viable partner, signaling that timing is appropriate for the US engagement.

The US could easily engage with Pakistan, where vast, untapped mineral reserves, low extraction costs, and an increasingly open investment climate can provide an ideal alternative

While the US has traditionally overlooked Pakistan in its strategic resource planning, the difficult negotiations with Ukraine over a US-Ukraine resources agreement have created an opportunity for the US to engage on a more immediate basis with a friendly government as it seeks to optimize its supply chain. Additionally, rather than relying on overburdened suppliers like Australia and Canada, where production costs are rising and regulations are tightening, the US could easily engage with Pakistan, where vast, untapped mineral reserves, low extraction costs, and an increasingly open investment climate can provide an ideal alternative.

Partnering with Pakistan is not just a short-term business opportunity it may be a long term strategic move. It creates a diversified, secure supply chain that reduces reliance on China; a cost effective source of minerals, improving US industrial competitiveness; and a strengthened geopolitical alliance in a crucial region of the world.

Global demand for rare earth minerals is increasing at an unprecedented rate. The transition to clean energy, technological advancements, and military modernization all depend on a stable supply of these critical resources. Washington must recognize Pakistan as a critical mineral partner before China, Russia, or other global competitors solidify their presence in the region.

Pakistan needs to put a tight lid on the rising wave of terrorism in the western provinces adjoining Afghanistan

In order to make this happen, Pakistan needs to put a tight lid on the rising wave of terrorism in the western provinces adjoining Afghanistan and address the Afghan problem heads on, in consultation and partnership with the neighbours of Afghanistan, with special collaboration with China, Russian Federation, Central Asian republics and Iran. If that happens, we are ready for a new type of partnership with the world, including the USA under Trump 2.0.

Disclaimer:  The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.