Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk’s recent visit to Pakistan opened new avenues for bilateral cooperation between the two countries. Overchuk held meetings with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, President Asif Ali Zardari, and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar over trade, regional connectivity, and defense during his trip to Islamabad. Overchuk’s visit held particular significance for Islamabad because it publicly conveyed Russia’s support for Pakistan’s membership in the BRICS bloc. Pakistan formally applied for BRICS membership in August 2023 to benefit from economic ties with members of the bloc. Given that Russia hosted the BRICS summit in October 2024, this expression of support carries weight. But for Pakistan to get membership in the coveted bloc, it would need to win the consent of all members, including India. Because of tensions between the two countries, New Delhi is likely to oppose Pakistan’s application. However, Pakistan’s entry into the BRICS could be in the interest of both Islamabad and New Delhi and largely regional stability.

The BRICS+ Expansion and Geopolitical Realignments:

Originally composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the BRICS bloc has risen rapidly in membership and geopolitical significance. Earlier this year, the bloc expanded to include as many as 10 emerging economies, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, and others, and it now accounts for 36 percent of global GDP.  The expansion dynamic increase in internal complexity is due to the evolution from BRICS to BRICS+. On the one hand, including new members would enhance the bloc’s overall geopolitical power and standing in the world economy. On the other hand, the expansion of BRICS membership may provide an environment to mitigate existing cleavages. For example, Iran and Saudi Arabia are regional competitors in the Middle East, which makes it questionable whether an enlarged grouping can either regulate or contain those internal conflicts without breaking apart.

The formation of BRICS+ has led to several geopolitical realignments:

• Challenge To Western Dominance: BRICS+ nations are increasingly assertive in international forums, advocating for their interests and challenging the traditional power dynamics. This has led to a shift in the global balance of power.
• Formation Of Alternative Institutions: BRICS+ has established alternative institutions, such as the New Development Bank (NDB) in 2015 and the Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA), to finance and support developing countries. These institutions aim to reduce dependence on Western-dominated institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Compared to Western-led multilateral banks, such as the World Bank and the IMF, the NDB is still at a nascent stageand enjoys limited reach. However, for many emerging economies, especially those that owe a heavy debt to the IMF, the NDB represents an opportunity to reduce their reliance on the West.
• Increased Cooperation Among Emerging Economies: BRICS+ has fostered closer cooperation among its members, increasing trade, investment, and technological exchange. This has strengthened the economic ties between these nations and enhanced their collective bargaining power.

Pakistan And BRICS Membership: Opportunities and Challenges:

Pakistan’s recent application to join the BRICS group of nations presents a complex scenario with both significant opportunities and potential challenges.

Pakistan’s severe and protracted economic difficulties are the driving force behind its attempt to join the BRICS. Pakistan’s GDP growth rate in 2022 was nearly 5 percent, according to data from the World Bank. This figure shrunk to just over 2 percent in 2023-24. The total debt-to-GDP ratio stood at nearly 75 percent in the last fiscal year compared to just under 74 percent in the previous fiscal year. A long-standing decline in foreign investment flows has added to the country’s woes, largely exacerbated by political instability.

Under these circumstances, the BRICS has already emerged as a key partner. In light of its challenges, Pakistan has had trouble securing adequate support from the IMF, which imposes several conditions for its assistance, including the implementation of fiscal adjustments, privatization, structural reforms, and social security nets. This has often necessitated intervention from BRICS states. For example, Saudi Arabia, China, and the United Arab Emirates all BRICS members provided funding to help Pakistan secure its most recent tranche of IMF financial support, which totaled USD 7 billion.

In this regard, the NDB could also be a promising opportunity for Pakistan. The NDB lends directly to BRICS members or against their sovereign guarantee, thereby making membership in the BRICS critical. Importantly, unlike the IMF, the NDB does not impose conditions for financial assistance, and no member state can veto the decisions of other members based on its economic size. Given Pakistan’s erratic foreign reserves, the NDB’s ability to let states borrow in their currencies is also quite significant. A major improvement over other multilateral development banks, which can take years to complete loans, is that the NDB accepts loans in less than six months.

Opportunities:

Pakistan’s BRICS membership opportunities can be foreseen in multiple areas. The economic boost includes trade expansion: BRICS states represent a substantial market, offering the potential for increased exports of Pakistani goods like textiles, agricultural products, and IT services. Forty percent of the world’s oil and forty-two percent of its grain are produced by BRICS countries. The investment attraction membership could attract foreign direct investment from BRICS countries, particularly in sectors like infrastructure, energy, and manufacturing.

At the global level, BRICS membership will facilitate Pakistan to cultivate geopolitical influence. It offers a platform for Pakistan to voice its concerns on the global stage and engage with influential emerging economies. Additionally, it will provide venues for diversified diplomacy which will help Pakistan to diversify its diplomatic relations and reduce reliance on traditional partners.

Furthermore, it will provide an option for technological collaboration as well such as Knowledge Sharing: BRICS countries are actively involved in technological advancements. Pakistan could benefit from cooperation in areas like AI, space technology, and renewable energy.

Challenges:

The challenges include several aspects that may hurdle Pakistan’s membership. Mainly, India’s strong opposition, due to historical baggage which deepened because of prolonged tensions, and ongoing disputes. On the diplomatic front, India’s influence within BRICS will complicate Pakistan’s entry process. The economic vulnerability, including high debt and political instability, could hinder Pakistan’s ability to fully benefit from BRICS membership.

BRICS And Engaging With India:

Pakistan’s inclusion in the BRICS may also provide a forum for New Delhi to engage with Islamabad more constructively. This may be especially crucial to both countries considering regional cooperation mechanisms under the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) have long been moribund. Multilateral platforms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the BRICS which are not specific to South Asia and thus less politically sensitive could play a role in easing tensions and normalizing ties. In particular, the presence of mutual partners such as Russia can be a catalyst for engagement in these fora.

Pakistan’s inclusion in the BRICS will create a conducive environment for reviving bilateral channels. So far, India and Pakistan have not undertaken any diplomatic discussions on this issue, and in the run-up to his upcoming visit to Pakistan, Jaishankar has already ruled out any bilateral dialogue with Islamabad on the sidelines of the SCO Summit 2024. However, without constructive ties with its neighbors, India cannot achieve its ambitions of becoming a global power in an era of significant geopolitical divisions and evolving world order. Similarly, for Pakistan, cooperation with the BRICS can be an economic lifeline but it cannot achieve that without normalizing ties with India.

Conclusion:

While Pakistan’s membership in BRICS offers a substantial potential for economic growth and geopolitical influence, it is essential to acknowledge the significant challenges posed by India’s opposition and Pakistan’s domestic economic vulnerabilities. To maximize the benefits, Pakistan will need to carefully consider its strategic approach, strengthen its economic fundamentals, and effectively manage its relationship with India within the BRICS framework.