South Asian region has remained historically volatile between neighboring countries Pakistan and India. After getting independence from British government, India and Pakistan never built a cordial relationship for long. Three major wars and numerous skirmishes have kept tensions high. Despite cordial policies towards each other in the past, both countries have not developed friendly relationship due to a host of factors. Recently, the Pahalgam attack in Indian Occupied Kashmir opened a new course of hostility between both countries. Indian Prime Minister, Narender Modi’s rise further deteriorated the strained relationships and has sown the seeds of hatred in India against Pakistan.  The BJP policies are coercive and oppressive against Muslims, and particularly with Pakistan.
The use of force and coercion never brings peace or prosperity to the world. History has witnessed that oppressive strategies and techniques of rulers to suppress the freedom of people, achieved nothing in return
The use of force and coercion never brings peace or prosperity to the world. History has witnessed that oppressive strategies and techniques of rulers to suppress the freedom of people, achieved nothing in return. The Indian BJP government has also adopted similar policies in Jammu and Kashmir leading to radicalism and extremism in the territory. The revocation of articles supporting autonomy of the Indian Occupied Kashmir and their rights affected the standing of Kashmir as an autonomous area. Various false flag operations have been conducted in Kashmir by the Prime Minister of India Narender Modi to divert the focus of citizens from domestic issues and government’s own intelligence failure in preventing such attacks. The Pulwama attack is in a case point.
India without any evidence blamed Pakistan for this attack, without even taking time to understand the serious repercussions of its allegations
Unfortunately, the recent Pahalgam attack in Kashmir and the irresponsible statements by the Indian Officials against Pakistan destabilised the peace of South Asia. India without any evidence blamed Pakistan for this attack, without even taking time to understand the serious repercussions of its allegations.
The unilateral decision to suspend the Indus Water Treaty by Indian government has no justification. Indus water treaty is the only treaty secured without having wars and minor conflicts between both countries. This treaty was mediated by the World Bank and the article xii (4), as per the treaty, the provisions of this treaty will remain in force unless terminated by a treaty in the duly ratified form by which the two governments intend to terminate it. This means neither any country unilaterally may suspend, revoke or terminate this treaty. The World Bank, which brokered the treaty, also stresses that unilateral suspension is a violation. Hence, the continuous threats coming from Indian government are baseless and illogical. This clause prohibits either side from unilaterally revoking or suspending the treaty. Even during the wars of 1965, 1971, and 1999, the treaty survived, highlighting its resilience.
The future wars will be fought over water and the most hotspot region is South Asia. The Indus river not only provides life to one country but is a lifeline for all countries in the South Asian region.
PM Narender Modi said in his speech that blood and water cannot flow together
Water is becoming a geopolitical issue in the 21st century with a minor conflicts or rift countries are threatening to stop the flow of water as PM Narender Modi said in his speech that blood and water cannot flow together. Similar incident happened between Afghanistan and Iran as clashes erupted over water leading to several lives being lost.
However, there are great engineering obstacles to redirect or block such enormous river systems like the Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, etc. All such measures necessitate the construction of new massive dam projects with diversion structures, and their construction is neither quick nor easy. For instance, it takes 7 to 10 years to construct a large dam under stable political conditions, whereas such projects would suffer eternal delays and face insurmountable technical hurdles in this current politically volatile environment. In addition, the international oversight on the Indus basin- mainly by the World Bank and other United Nations and international courts means that any unilateral act would not go unnoticed by global condemnation, much less within possible legal challenges. The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960, is almost universally acclaimed to be the most successful water-sharing treaty across the globe, which continues to endure even the wars fought between India and Pakistan in 1965, 1971, and later in 1999.
An obstruction on water resources flowing to Pakistan can be considered as warfare under international law since it would invite retaliation
An obstruction on water resources flowing to Pakistan can be considered as warfare under international law since it would invite retaliation from armies. Water has usually represented a rather unusual security problem for Pakistan, since more than 90% of its huge agrarian economy depends upon the Indus River system. The geographical realities complicate river engineering. Rivers are natural systems, and nowadays, flows that change might either flood or drought territory even those of India itself, specifically in the northern states. Examples of how capricious nature can be are the floodings of Bihar and Assam due to past mismanagement caused by river waters.
This means that internal opposition would be massive from within India. There are the three states, Punjab, Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir, which need these rivers for many of their important needs like irrigation, drinking and hydropower. Aggressive manipulations would be detrimental to the internal federal harmony of India with further agitation in both these areas where water scarcity is already a prevailing situation. The climate challenges aggravate the cases much further. At a very alarming rate, the Hindu Kush-Himalayan glaciers are melting. They will have already melted up to 36 percent as per some studies by the year 2100, even with global warming containment-into the Indus system. Thus, self-restricted water flow adds to what is already an unstable bed of river systems.
As is now clearly emerging, water is “the new oil” in relation to the politics of the 21st century
As is now clearly emerging, water is “the new oil” in relation to the politics of the 21st century. In South Asia, more than 1.6 billion people survive off these diverse but interlinked river systems. The waters treaty over that of Indus is regarded as a little brittle; however, this is widely seen as an important lifeline to peace in that area. Reckless arguments, however politically convenient they might be, hurt and plunge the lives of millions into a chaotic sea of instability. Only diplomacy, cooperation, and conflict resolution has answers in this situation.
Disclaimer:Â The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.
