In 2020, a renowned analyst warned that the BJP-RSS government had prepared an ambiguous plan. Ranging from a wide spectrum of measures, which include false flag operations and plot attacks against Azad Kashmir and attempts to fracture Pakistan’s image again. He warned that India could even engineer internal conflict among Kashmiris themselves, “To get Kashmiris killed by Kashmiris”, which would serve to increase its control over the disputed region. These predictions now resonate louder than ever, demanding urgent attention to the current situation in Kashmir.

The terrorist strike forced India’s political stability and security arrangements into total disarray

These concerns are validated in the wake of the recent 22^nd April terrorist attack in Pahaglam, in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK). The terrorist strike forced India’s political stability and security arrangements into total disarray. The recent attack has revived worries about how the Modi government uses national security crisis to gain political leverage and deflect domestic criticism. Such incidents show the potential for how they are politicalized and also used as a method for distracting attention from critical domestic concerns.

 Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), Border Security Force (BSF) units, together with regional local police. Despite the Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB) and Rapid Response Teams (RRR) team’s deployment and heightened surveillance measures, militants infiltrated the area

It is imperative to interrogate whether India’s security failure is accidental or a deliberately constructed narrative? To add, an attack in Pahaglam, which functions as a key tourism center of Anantnag district, resulted in multiple fatalities and widespread panic throughout India. The incident exposed critical security shortcomings in the area heavily guarded by the army, Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), Border Security Force (BSF) units, together with regional local police. Despite the Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB) and Rapid Response Teams (RRR) team’s deployment and heightened surveillance measures, militants infiltrated the area. The Indian counterinsurgency framework showed important failures during this attack despite deploying numerous security forces at the tourist location.

Consequently, AIMIM president Asaduddin Owaisi, alleged that the Pahalgam terror attack resulted from the “Intelligence Failure”. As per a source, a terrorist group made a remark hinting at the attack, a few days prior to the incident. Intelligence agencies, along with security forces, failed to act upon the warning. The very grave tragedy ultimately occurred, and it was due to this failure.

Many political analysts argue that the Modi government has once again externalized the threat by blaming Pakistan

Following the attack, the government initiated a heavy-handed crackdown, as well as joint patrols, strengthened checkpoints, with mass raids across a 5-km radius. Public anger within Kashmir has barely calmed down despite these measures as well as the crackdown. Many political analysts argue that the Modi government has once again externalized the threat by blaming Pakistan. This government enabled the attack, they argue, rather than investigating the internal shortcomings.

In response to the Pahalgam attack, the Indian government adopted a hardline diplomatic stance rather than confronting its internal failures. Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). The IWT is a historic water-sharing accord with Pakistan, and it was signed back in 1960. The treaty’s Article XII was in effect violated by such a move. For any changes, Article XII requires mutual consent. It marks a first unilateral withdrawal from within the framework in those six-plus decades, a shift symbolizing diplomatic disengagement instead of conflict management. Additionally, India expelled Pakistani diplomats, barred Pakistani nationals from entering India under the SAARC visa program, and reduced the Indian diplomatic staff in Islamabad from 55 to 30.

The pattern is not new. Following the 2016 Uri terrorist attack, India conducted publicly announced “surgical strikes” across the Line of Control (LoC)

Notably, the attack was designed to divert public attention from internal security and to boost public sentiments towards nationalism for political benefit. The strike came when India was dealing with the aftermath of its demonetization policy. The policy which removed high-value banknotes generated opposition from political competitors because they blamed it as economic mismanagement.

The current reaction to the Pahalgam attack adopts familiar strategies. The government presents this incident as foreign aggression from Pakistan to mobilize national support and conceal its failures in security measures. This strategy functions to improve the nationalist reputation. The political move occurs during a period when the Modi government encounters rising opposition over unemployment, inflation, and intensifying social unrest. The Indian government creates opposing narratives about Pakistani aggression to unite the country against foreign enemies.

In broader academic terms, the foreign policy choice of India matches the theory of diversionary policies

In broader academic terms, the foreign policy choice of India matches the theory of diversionary policies. When leaders encounter a restive domestic population, they tend to create external emergencies that unite the people. For numerous successive decades, India has used the threat from Pakistan to create national unity. Conversely, the 2024 Reasi Bus ambush deviated from the previous patterns of India’s diversionary foreign policy. The incident resulted in the deaths of nine Hindu pilgrims and left 41 others injured. During this period, the Modi Government tactfully avoided openly accusing Pakistan of links with The Resistance Front (TRF) a Lahkar-e-Tiba (LeT) proxy organization because national elections were underway, which required political stability more than escalation.

However, the Pahaglam attack displays an ongoing weakness, which persists in India’s counterterrorism framework.  This event demonstrates how security events are repeatedly used by political parties as a strategic measure to gain political dominance. The BJP, in particular, capitalizes on anti-Pakistan and anti-Muslim hatred to gather political support despite worsening internal issues and heightening social rifts. Therefore, ensuring geopolitical stability in the South Asia region requires a paradigmatic shift away from externally oriented blame game towards constructive regional engagement.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.