IIOJK witnessed an attack by five gunmen who used AK‑47s and M4 carbines to ambush visitors at Baisaran Valley near Pahalgam. It killed 25 pilgrims, one local pony worker, and ruined 17 more people, according to reports from the Indian Foreign Ministry. The Resistance Front at first acknowledged responsibility for the attack on 22 April 2025 but later they withdrew their confession thus complicating the investigation process.

The Pahalgam attack contains unproven strategic goals consisting of enhancing national solidarity and applying diplomatic pressure on Pakistan.

New Delhi announced the immediate suspension of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty and called Islamabad to evacuate all diplomats from its territory which led Pakistan to shut its airspace while terminating the 1972 Simla Agreement followed by trade restrictions. Small‑arms fire has occurred nightly along the Line of Control since 24 April without any military fatalities reported thus far.

The cyber-attacks that India faces exceed one million according to the confirmation provided by India’s Additional Director General of Police for Maharashtra Cyber and the majority of these attacks originate from Pakistan and the Middle East IP ranges that target government and critical‑infrastructure websites. The next false-flag operation seems probable given that both capitals launch military threats while trading offensive claims with each other, following similar strategic deception events from Pulwama (2019) and Pathankot (2016).

The Pathankot airbase in India underwent an 80-hour shooting conflict with militants during 2–3 January 2016 which resulted in seven security personnel losing their lives. Indian investigators identified Pakistani Jaish-e-Mohammed militants as the assailants when border infiltration occurred, but members of a Pakistani JIT sent to Pathankot determined through their inquiry that the attack had been staged for propaganda against Pakistan.

During the investigation, India’s government dismissed the Pakistani intelligence agencies’ psychological warfare tactics as revealed by the investigation team. The decision to grant a JIT visa entr,y unprecedented since 1989 served two goals according to analysts because it showcased transparency but reinforced Pakistan as a never-ending aggressor in evidence-challenging scenarios.

On February 14th of 2019 Jaish‑e‑Mohammed launched their deadliest attack in Kashmir by assassination of 40 CRPF officers and injuring 35 more personnel at Pulwama. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi immediately vowed payment of “revenge” after which he deployed Indian Air Force aircraft to launch an airstrike targeting the Balakot training camp in Pakistan.

Securitization of foreign policy, portraying Pakistan as a malevolent foe, correlates with upticks in nationalist sentiment and voter consolidation.

The government in Islamabad refused to accept the existence of any such camp while also stating that Indian aircraft bombed useless ground. Due to the modest observable destruction from the satellite images, it became clear that the mission primarily served nationalistic publicity needs for the ruling political party to improve its April 2019 election prospects. Shah Mahmood Qureshi condemned the air strike as a political stunt during election season as the Pakistani minister used this opportunity to warn how India weaponize terror reports to serve domestic purposes. Indian leadership produces unproven terrorism claims for diplomatic and military purposes as it tries to handle internal or electoral pressures.

Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri accused cross‑border terrorist sanctuaries for orchestrating the Pahalgam massacre at a security cabinet briefing even though no supporting forensic or intercept data was released. The Indus Water Treaty faced immediate suspension while Pakistan lost its diplomatic envoys through sudden retaliation by Indian authorities which normally targets state actors more than non-state militants.

Islamabad condemned both the “unilateral and unjustified” actions as well as demanded an international investigation to probe the attack. Cyber and Information Warfare caused Indian government servers to experience more than a million cyber intrusions apparently with support from Pakistani proxies and other digital bases in the Middle East and North Africa.

Evidence points to organized operations whose goal was to reinforce Indian accusations. Publicized nightly border skirmishes at the Line of Control showcase “repulsed infiltration attempts” according to battlefield commanders but no casualties are reported. The approach to public diplomacy after Pathankot involved nurturing minor incidents to prolong a narrative that India was facing an existential threat.

Skeptical observers point out that like earlier incidents, the Pahalgam attack contains unproven strategic goals consisting of enhancing national solidarity and applying diplomatic pressure on Pakistan and elevating the current ruling party’s military reputation even though factual investigation results are still forthcoming.

Independent international investigations would reveal real facts thereby blocking extremists from using terrorist stories to serve their political aims.

Multiple key state elections present a critical vote to the ruling party of India during the coming months. Historically, securitization of foreign policy, portraying Pakistan as a malevolent foe, correlates with upticks in nationalist sentiment and voter consolidation. The Balakot airstrike took place close to the general election announcement in 2019 and simultaneously with the Pathankot probe invitation during the local assembly polls in Himachal Pradesh along with Gujarat during 2016.

The extensive candlelight vigils across Kashmir, coupled with unprecedented public anger, now force Prime Minister Modi to track down terrorists and their backers because public expectations demand action while creating an extremely difficult diplomatic situation between firm measures and preventing total war. Making slow decisions may lead local citizens to turn against government actions but strong aggressive moves could increase the risk of nuclear warfare.

The swift actions of New Delhi, including the immediate stop of water share under the Indus Waters Treaty and flight restrictions against Pakistani carriers, convey to international partners, specifically to the United States, that India possesses an unchallengeable position in its fight against terrorism. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly endorsed India’s right to defend itself diplomatically using Washington’s support during his public pronouncement.

A cyclical pattern occurs when unconfirmed acts of terror get magnified, leading to national unity, but it worsens Pakistan’s diplomatic position and stabilizes India’s defensive stance concerning the unresolved Kashmir dispute.

The regular habits of accusation follow accusation so investigative transparency is needed urgently. Independent international investigations would reveal real facts thereby blocking extremists from using terrorist stories to serve their political aims. India and Pakistan must start genuine dialogue as well as confidence-building measures to resolve their fundamental issues to minimize the potential for military conflict.

The Pahalgam attack in combination with past events confirms that strategic deception combined with political exploitation of terrorist actions creates serious dangers in the region. Such practices without accountability and transparency could sustain cycles of distrust and hostility because they pose dangers that might result in entire regional devastation.

Strategic deception combined with political exploitation of terrorist actions creates serious dangers in the region.

The Pahalgam massacre, a regular pattern took shape as both countries matched retaliation with speedy attributions followed by diplomatic condemnation through cyber-attacks before leading to calibrated border confrontations, all during political manipulations by domestic actors and foreign powers.

Terrorism narratives were fast assimilated into strategic deception in both the Pathankot incident of 2016 and the Pulwama attack of 2019 thereby allowing political interests to overshadow real casualties. The avoidance of hostile actions and the establishment of clear communication must become essential priorities for both India and Pakistan to preserve peace between their nations. The resolution of this pattern between false flags and military increases will lead South Asia to sustainable peace.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.