Pakistan stands on a knife’s edge as climate change harms the country with floods, droughts, and scalding heat, the need for clean and reliable energy has never been greater. Yet the solutions are fraught with risk and complexity

There are 240 million people living in a country in which massive sections of the population lack electricity. 

To understand Pakistan’s predicament, we must first understand the severity of its energy and climate crises. There are 240 million people living in a country in which massive sections of the population lack electricity. Power cuts cripple industry and daily life robbing billions from the economy every year.

In the meantime, Pakistan relies on burning coal and gas to generate electricity, which emits greenhouse gases that cause global warming. Pakistan, with low emissions in comparison to the developed world, does not inflict as much damage. Still, it’s doing its share, and that has a steep cost. Pakistan is the feature that Global Climate Risk Index estimates. So, it is a nation very vulnerable to climate disaster.

If Pakistan were to add 10,000 MW to its nuclear energy capacity, this would bring down its carbon footprint 

Nuclear power, a powerful low-carbon energy source, is now seen as Pakistan’s best bet for escaping energy poverty. Just one 1,000 megawatt reactor can replace millions of tons of coal emissions every year, and the figures are compelling. If Pakistan were to add 10,000 MW to its nuclear energy capacity, this would bring down its carbon footprint and enhance energy universality through electrification of homes, upsurge industry and reduction of imports on the back of volatile fossil fuels.

Yet nuclear energy is no panacea. It comes with huge costs, safety risks, and geopolitical baggage. Pakistan will need to negotiate a minefield of challenges to tap into the atom’s energy.

The two reactors bought from China at Karachi cost $10 billion. This added up to the debt Pakistan already owes. A 10,000 MW expansion could cost taxpayers tens of billions of dollars more

First, there’s the sheer expense. Nuclear power plants can be a tad bit too costly, as the two reactors bought from China at Karachi cost $10 billion. This added up to the debt Pakistan already owes. A 10,000 MW expansion could cost taxpayers tens of billions of dollars more. Pakistan suffers from chronic shortages of electricity and gas, these will go up due to power cuts.

Then there are the security risks Pakistan’s past proliferation scandals have put it on the watchlist. A bigger civilian program could look like a cover for nuclear weapons ambitions and lead to sanctions which strangle growth. Also, Pakistan’s nuclear sites are located on a fault line that can spell disaster in the event of an earthquake.

An expanded civilian program could merely be a cover for nuclear weapons ambitions, allowing sanctions that impede growth. Inside Pakistan, in fault line located facilities, an earthquake could cause a catastrophe. In a worst-case scenario, leaks can poison the air, soil, and water, causing a slow public health disaster.

But despite all this, Pakistan cannot afford to simply say ‘no’ to nuclear power. The energy and climate emergencies demand bold solutions. If it is managed with greater strategy and oversight, nuclear energy would prove to be a useful solution.

So what might a rational nuclear policy look like? Pakistan could first focus on cheaper and smaller reactors, using modular designs to enhance capacity. Pakistan could seek collaboration with IAEA and other states to assuage fears of proliferation and access to fuel and technology.

Regulating the facility independently and transparently, as well as investing in the latest safety measures, can minimize risks effectively. It could be the case that a national plan for safe storage and disposal of wastes, funded by taxes on fossil fuels, could be needed. This could turn a legacy of dumping after reckless decision making into one of being responsible without impairing future generations and offering them also a clean future.

Pakistan should also know the limitations of nuclear energy. This is not a replacement for a comprehensive collection of clean energy sources

Pakistan should also know the limitations of nuclear energy. This is not a replacement for a comprehensive collection of clean energy sources. It doesn’t allow us to forget much needed adaptations, from strengthening flood defenses to creating drought resistant crops.

The nuclear question, at its core, is one of tradeoffs: near-term costs and hazards versus the existential threat of a destabilized climate. To tackle climate change we’re going to need foresight measured in decades, rather than election cycles; reason triumphing over emotion; and political leaders who level with the public about the stakes.

Pakistan’s pathway is narrow but navigable. Using nuclear power with caution after being made aware of risks could prove to be a rational approach for tackling the climate crisis. It is really not a viable option to stick to a carbon intensive status as the world warms and this option does not benefit anyone.

With honesty, imagination, and determination, Pakistan may just find that fine balance necessary to propel itself towards a greener, cooler future

Pakistan is not alone in this predicament. From Bangladesh to  Egypt to Nigeria, nations are facing the same difficult balancing act of energy access, debt and climate disaster.  Pakistan’s nuclear trajectory could illuminate the path or darken it.

The choices made today will not be easy. What they require is debate and wisdom and not sloganeering or wishful thinking. Yet with honesty, imagination, and determination, Pakistan may just find that fine balance necessary to propel itself towards a greener, cooler future.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.