The third session of the preparatory Committee convened for the 2026 Nuclear Non-proliferation NPT Review Conference amidst a rapidly deteriorating global security environment. The widening gap between the commitments of nuclear armed states  and their actual policies and practices has never been more prominent. The report on latest status of World Nuclear Forces by Federation of American Scientists, highlights this divergence, where although nuclear stockpiles are decreasing overall, there are active modernization efforts across all nuclear armed states especially the P5. According to the report as of the beginning of 2025, 12,331 warheads are present in world.

The 2026 Review Conference will be a pivotal moment that may either accelerate the criticism of the nuclear governance tool humanity has created or signal the start of a renewed commitment to disarmament and trust-building

The NPT appears to be weakened and a more competitive and fragmented nuclear order is establishing by the discrepancy between declared commitments and real modernization paths. The 2026 Review Conference will be a pivotal moment that may either accelerate the criticism of the nuclear governance tool humanity has created or signal the start of a renewed commitment to disarmament and trust-building. However, the decision depends on substantive political will as well as procedural diplomacy, which is unsettlingly elusive in the context of today’s geopolitical and strategic rivalry. The mistrust among Great powers has immensely increased and so does their desire towards nuclear build-up.

The third prep com deliberated and discussed the NPT Rev com for almost two weeks but ended without adopting recommendations for the 2026 Rev Conference. The draft decision on strengthening the review process put forward by Chair Ambassador Harold Agyeman, Permanent Representative of Ghana to the United Nations,  did not get support and was not adopted. The only agreement after prep meeting was on dates and venue of Conference along with the president and adoption of procedural report of Conference. This also showcases a major problem of NPT where nuclear armed states and their complicit allies are not ready to adhere to their legally binding commitment towards elimination of nuclear weapons and are not ready to work towards that goal.

The fundamental pillar on which NPT rests is pledged by Nuclear Weapon States (NWS) to pursue disarmament and willingness by non-Nuclear Weapon States not to develop nuclear arms in exchange of peaceful nuclear cooperation

The fundamental pillar on which NPT rests is pledged by Nuclear Weapon States (NWS) to pursue disarmament and willingness by non-Nuclear Weapon States not to develop nuclear arms in exchange of peaceful nuclear cooperation. However, the credibility of that bargain is undermined as there is extensive and visible modernization of nuclear arsenals by all P5 states.

The commitment of disarmament have eroded gradually and so does trust between P5 states

Hence, disarmament seems a utopian idea and these modernization programs point to a future where these states will have more sophisticated weapons integrated into military doctrines and potentially more usable. Hence, the commitment of disarmament have eroded gradually and so does trust between P5 states. The warhead inventories of P5 as per latest report are presented in table below

Source: Report by Federation of American Scientist

There is a gap between pledge and commitment that is evident in view of current global and regional tensions. The war in Ukraine has reintroduced nuclear weapons into mainstream strategic thinking in ways unseen since the Cold War. Russia’s repeated nuclear rhetoric, Germany rethinking its nuclear posture and proposals for nuclear sharing as a form of deterrence in Europe will have impacts on Strategic environment of Europe.   The long-standing norm against the use of nuclear weapons, known as the “nuclear taboo,” has dramatically eroded as a result of NATO’s strengthened nuclear posture and the ensuing policy reactions in North America and Europe.

There is also renewed focus to develop and modernize your own nuclear weapons and use the bilateral and multilateral frameworks to control or limit nuclear weapon modernization of others

Similar to this, an already precarious regional security framework is made more unstable by the Middle East war, especially in Gaza. This has increased the threat perception of Iran and reports highlight Iran’s intent to test nuclear weapons. In UN private meeting on nuclear non-proliferation,. Jean-Noël Barrot, Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs highlighted that risks of proliferation have never been this high. As per IAEA report, Iran currently possess 6,000 kilos of enriched uranium, and warns the European leaders of Iran’s nuclear weapons in a few days’ time. The resurgence of nuclear deterrence on a global and regional scale portends a risky retreat from the moral obligations enshrined in the NPT by member states. There is also renewed focus to develop and modernize your own nuclear weapons and use the bilateral and multilateral frameworks to control or limit nuclear weapon modernization of others.

The NPT’s persistent weakness as a discriminatory framework exacerbates the problems. Although the nuclear monopoly of five states is legally enshrined, it provides neither enough assurances for NNWS security nor a credible disarmament enforcement mechanism. Many non-nuclear governments no longer see much need to be permanently bound by a system that penalizes disarmament efforts while rewarding nuclear armament and modernization. The inability of the parties to accept a final consensus text during the 2022 Review Conference, which resulted in an impasse, is indicative of a broader crisis of confidence.

Western bloc focusses on Russian and Chinese commitment and Russia and China criticizes the nuclear modernization of US arsenals and missiles

The problem persist even today and the three sessions of Prepcom meetings for 2026 Review clearly reflect this problem. The prepatory sessions, instead of creating consensus and building bridges between states are a platform where states highlight differences and accuse each other. Western bloc focusses on Russian and Chinese commitment and Russia and China criticizes the nuclear modernization of US arsenals and missiles. The NPT framework is finding it difficult to heal the widening divide between nuclear and non-nuclear nations, as seen by the rising support from middle powers and the Global South for alternative frameworks like the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW).

Without major changes, especially bold and decisive steps by the P5 to boost trust, there are risks that the conference will repeat the pattern of deadlock, which would further undermine the treaty’s legitimacy

The current environment of mistrust suggests a bleak outlook for the 2026 Review Conference. Without major changes, especially bold and decisive steps by the P5 to boost trust, there are risks that the conference will repeat the pattern of deadlock, which would further undermine the treaty’s legitimacy. The major problem is also the rising distrust among non-nuclear states that will lead to gradual erosion to the adherence of the treaty, threatening international nonproliferation standards at a time when geopolitical tensions are at an all-time high since the Cold War.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.