The Middle East has lived up to its reputation of being the most volatile region of the world, where change and chaos are the constant variables. In unprecedented blitzkrieg moves, the opposition forces supported by regional powers, overthrew the Baath regime of Bashar-al-Assad in Syria. Instantly, Israel expanded its borders to take over the Golan Heights and part of Southern Lebanon.
The fall of Syria, the ceasefire agreement between HAMAS and Israel, and muted Hezbollah put breaks to the Iranian regional outreach and severely dented the ‘Axis of Resistance.’ This emboldened Israeli regional ascendency and gave birth to a new security architecture dominated by Israeli regional hegemony. The regional security configuration was further compounded with Donald Trump coming into power, having a pro-Israeli Administration, that redesignated the Houthis of Yemen as a global Terrorist entity.
In light of the fast-changing geopolitical landscape of the region, this paper endeavors to find out how this new power configuration would impact the regional security environment, what would be the contours of US regional policy under Trump, and how Iran would react to these challenges.
Fall of Syria
Syria was the only Arab country out of the Western influence and actually at war with Israel. Despite the fact that Syria was divided in many power centers, controlled by respective regional powers and their non-state actors/proxies, the country under Bashar al-Assad enjoyed comfortable support from Iran and Russia, which helped him to withstand the civil war that raged since the dawn of ‘Arab Spring’ in 2010.
Capitalizing on Iranian and Russian dependency on Syrian geopolitics, Assad was beginning to make independent decisions and his yearning to rejoin the Arab World made him self-confident in the last few years. In a change of heart by the Arab states, and breaking Syria’s isolation, Assad visited UAE twice in March 2022 and March 2023 (Reuters, March 19, 2023). This was emboldened by his visit to Saudi Arabia in May 2023 to attend the Arab League Summit and the red-carpet reception he received; Syria was ultimately returned to the Arab fold (Reuters, May 2, 2023).
This made Assad over-confident of his support by the Arab world and things started to change. According to Carnegie Report “By early 2024, both Iran and Russia had changed when it came to the Syrian president. Russia was particularly incensed by his repeated violations of the Idlib de-escalation agreement and stubborn resistance to any form of a negotiated settlement. Meanwhile, Iran found its once-considerable influence over Damascus steadily eroding, with Assad increasingly charting an independent course that often conflicted with Tehran’s regional objectives” (Carnegie, Dec 9, 2024).
The fall of Assad’s regime marked a strategic shift, enabling Israel’s territorial expansion into the Golan Heights and Southern Lebanon.
In the civil war, Syria was geographically divided and controlled by different groups; notably, Idlib was being controlled and governed by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a breakaway faction of Al-Qaeda. On November 27, 2024, the HTS started unprecedented advances from Idlib supported by Turkish backed Syrian National Army and the locals, these forces reached Damascus within 12 days without much resistance from the Assad loyalists (Aljazeera, Dec 10, 2024), and Assad fled away to Russia, ending over 50 years of Baath rule in Syria (BBC, Dec 9, 2024).
HTS leader, Ahmad al-Sharra, previously known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, stated that “the country is exhausted by war and is not a threat to its neighbours or to the West” (BBC, Dec 19, 2024). Surprisingly, till 2024, the HTS was designated as a terrorist group by the UN, EU, US, and many Western states, and its leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, had a head-money of $10 million as a terrorist leader.
Suddenly, the entire world, including the Arab states welcomed the pleasant change, which removed Bashar al-Assad. However, this prompted Israel to take over the Golan Heights, along with part of southern Lebanon, declaring it as part of its territory. This cut off the Iranian links to Hezbollah and HAMAS and effectively neutralized Iranian regional Influence.
Iranian Losses
Once Iran boasted of controlling several Arab capitals, Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut, and Sana (Middle East Monitor, Apr 4, 2020), its regional proxies were active in expanding the Iranian influence and outreach. Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi with a diplomatic offensive courted several key states; a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia, a trade accord with China, a regional confluence with Turkey, and a strategic understanding with Russia.
Since October 2023, the Israeli genocide in Gaza and the Iranian support to HAMAS, Hezbollah, and Ansar al-Islam, Iran has been seen as the true supporter of the oppressed, which jolted many Arab capitals by people’s outrage in the streets. The tit-for-tat attacks by Israel and Iran in April and October 2024, also echoed Iranian military preparedness to meet any adventurism from Israel.
As a result, Iran was effectively dictating the regional security environment. However, in a series of attacks, assassinations, and killings several top Iranian and its allied leaders were eliminated; from Qasem Sulemani to IRGC commanders, and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, to entire top leaders of Hezbollah, especially Hassan Nasrullah, and HAMAS leadership, severely eroded the Iranian regional outreach.
Iran’s regional influence has waned following the demise of the ‘Axis of Resistance’ and leadership losses across Hezbollah and Hamas.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024, known to be the staunch Arab ally of Iran, circumvented the strategic outlet of Hezbollah and HAMAS. The capture of Golan Heights effectively curtailed Iranian supplies into Lebanon and Gaza. This was further compounded by the ceasefire agreement between HAMAS and Israel in January 2025, brokered by Qatar and the US, which ended the effective military campaign against Israel.
The ‘Axis of Resistance’, comprised of Iran, Syria, Yemen, Hezbollah, and Hamas, severely dented and undermined Iranian regional influence. The new Iranian leadership, which included reformists Masoud Pezeshkian and Javad Zarif, was not very enthusiastic about continuing the Iranian military strategy in the region. Instead, they were looking for dialogue and engagement as new tools of Iranian regional policy.
Israeli Ascendency
Though the Israeli genocide and ruthless military adventure in Gaza could not break the will of the Palestinians and their resolve to resist, the ceasefire agreement of January 2025, gave Israel a strategic respite to recalibrate its military offensive. The swap of hostages between HAMAS and Israel is being hailed from both sides, yet it is believed that after the complete release of hostages, Netanyahu would restart the military offensive in Gaza.
However, the fast-changing regional events have emboldened Israeli ascendency in the Middle Eastern power hierarchy. First the elimination of top leadership of HAMAS and Hezbollah, then capturing part of Southern Lebanon to forestall any effective Hezbollah attacks on Israel, and lastly, the fall of Syria and capture of Golan Heights are strategic geopolitical gains of Israel. It has effectively neutralized the Iranian regional influence and muted the affective power of the ‘Axis of Resistance.’ Netanyahu, who was seen as a security risk has become the security provider to the Israeli state and its people at the cost of the Palestinian massacre, especially over 10,000 children.
Israeli ascendency has severely curtailed the Iranian regional influence and assumed the regional dominance to call the shots. For the time being, it has effectively enlarged the Israeli geographical boundaries, neutralized threats to its security by silencing many of its foes, and created a favorable regional position to dictate the new regional security architecture for the Middle East.
New Regional Architecture
Many previous regional players have gone into oblivion and the new regional security architecture of the Middle East has four main players for contesting regional dominance; Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Iran. Though every player has its national security objectives to follow interestingly, it is heavily tilted against Iran. After capturing parts of Syrian and Lebanese territories and effectively muting the ‘Axis of Resistance’ Israel is now threatening Iran.
The possibility of attacking Iranian strategic facilities, especially its nuclear sites, was always on the cards, but in the latest development Israeli defense minister has written a letter to the US Defence Secretary about Israeli intention to attack Iran. “Israel is more prepared than ever to potentially attack Iran and its nuclear facilities… Iran and its partners continue to threaten… regional and global stability.
The upcoming months present us with challenges that require military readiness and opportunities that allow us to further our strategic goals. I am confident that together we can succeed, creating long-term stability and a better future for the region” (Jerusalem Post, Jan 26, 2025). The Israeli overconfidence is more visible as the Trump Administration has more anti-Iranian hawks than ever before, which may result in yet another misadventure of Israeli ambitions.
On the other hand, Iran has devised its strategy to meet the new challenges of heightened regional insecurity by signing a strategic agreement with Russia just days before the Trump inauguration. Iran and Russia signed a 20-year treaty covering areas ranging from defense and technology to energy and trade. Iranian and Russian officials said the “comprehensive strategic partnership treaty” covers areas from trade and military cooperation to science, culture, and education.
At a joint news conference with Pezeshkian in Moscow Putin praised the deal as a “real breakthrough creating conditions for the stable and sustainable development of Russia, Iran, and the entire region.” (Aljazeera, Jan 17, 2025) Moreover, Iran has already shown its clear intention to go nuclear if it faces any existential threat; advisor to the Supreme Leader, Kamal Kharazi stated “If an existential threat arises, Iran will modify its nuclear doctrine. We can build weapons and have no issue in this regard.” (NBC News, Nov 1, 2024) Earlier, the Iranian lawmakers had written a letter to its National Security Council to authorize the building of nuclear weapons. “A letter has been sent to the Supreme National Security Council, which has so far been signed by 39 parliament members.
The subject of the message is a request for revising the defense doctrine in the field of nuclear weapons.” (TASS News, Oct 9, 2024) Iran has also offered a regional security framework to its Arab neighbors. Iranian Vice President Javad Zarif has proposed a new regional security framework for the Middle East calling for the establishment of a “Muslim West Asian Dialogue Association” (MWADA) to “foster cooperation and stability” across the region. “MWADA challenges us to reimagine the region not as a battleground but as a hub of MWADA, amity, and empathy, characterized by the pursuit of shared opportunities and collective prosperity.” (The Economist, Dec 23, 2024).
Therefore, the regional security architecture may for the time being favor Israel but the Iranian offensive diplomatic and political approach with possibly changed nuclear posture make both Israel and Iran evenly poised for regional dominance. In this regard, the role of the other two regional players namely Turkey and Saudi would be more crucial.
Trump Presidency
President Donald Trump appointed Steve Witkoff as his special envoy to the Middle East; he is to visit Saudi Arabia, Israel and Gaza as part of his efforts to sustain the ceasefire agreement between Israel and HAMAS. According to Israeli sources, “his talks in Saudi Arabia, whose crown prince was the first foreign leader Trump spoke with since returning to office, are expected to address the administration’s efforts to broker a normalization agreement between Jerusalem and Riyadh.” (Times of Israel, Jan 24, 2025) ‘Witkoff is also considered to be point man on Iran, signalling the new administration’s resolve to address Tehran’s nuclear program diplomatically rather than militarily.’ The US President has reportedly said that “he hopes the Iranian nuclear crisis can be solved without Israel having to carry out a military strike against the Islamic Republic.” (Times of Israel, Jan 23, 2025)
Much before Donald Trump assumed office, it was widely expected that he would be more favorable to Israel, and his formation of a new Administration heavily depicted that. Therefore, it was no surprise when he designated Houthis as a terrorist entity; “US President Donald Trump has re-designated Yemen’s Houthis as a ‘Foreign Terrorist Organisation’ over their attacks on Red Sea shipping and Israel linked to the Gaza war.
The Trump Administration’s Middle East policies signal a pro-Israel tilt, re-designating Houthis as a terrorist organization and supporting Israeli dominance.
The Houthis’ activities threaten the security of American civilians and personnel in the Middle East, the safety of our closest regional partners, and the stability of global maritime trade.” (BBC, Dec 23, 2025) This was followed by the US Ambassador to the United Nations saying that Israel has the ‘biblical right’ to the West Bank (Aljazeera, Jan 21, 2025) President Trump revealed his plan for the Gaza Strip to clean out the whole thing, and Jordan and Egypt to take a million of Palestinians (CNN, Jan 26, 2025). Earlier, ‘the US President Donald Trump said that he was “not confident” the Gaza Ceasefire would last, despite claiming credit for brokering the agreement between Israel and Hamas.’
“The American president’s pessimism is not unique. There is significant pressure to restart the Gaza war from extremist right-wing Israeli politicians, who believe the ceasefire was a capitulation to Hamas.” (CNN, Jan 21, 2025) Therefore, within a few days of the Trump Administration coming into power, the silent contours of its policy on the Middle East are being seen with pessimism and detrimental to the Palestinian and Arab cause. This would be further compounded if the US Administration takes on Iran at the behest of Israel.
Conclusion
The whole geopolitical landscape of the Middle East has taken a strategic turn and given birth to a new architecture for regional security that has swung the balance of power in favor of Israel. Nonetheless, Iranian politico-strategic maneuverings are a significant manifestation of its future approach, which has placed both Israel and Iran evenly poised for the regional hierarchy.
Though the US policy for the Middle East under Trump has not been fully pronounced, the signals have given birth to skepticism and uncertainty in the regional security milieu. The role and policy of other regional powers such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia, and major powers like China and Russia would be significant variables that may determine the larger security matrix of the Middle East.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.
