Donald Trump was inaugurated for a second term as President of the United States on 20 January 2025, signifying a continuation of a polarising period in American politics. His inaugural address, delivered to a notably smaller crowd than in 2017, focused on themes of nationalism and populism, aimed at reaffirming his commitment to his core supporters while appealing to the broader public. The context of his return to power included significant political division, social unrest, and a global pandemic, which contributed to his supporters feeling marginalized.

Trump’s inaugural address emphasized nationalism and populism, signaling a continuation of polarizing policies and geopolitical shifts.

In Trump’s inaugural speech, his rhetorical strategies prominently featured repetition of phrases like “America First” and emotive language that evoked nostalgia, framing his presidency as a restoration of a “lost America.” He positioned himself against globalism, appealing to voters who feel threatened by cultural changes and economic uncertainties, while simultaneously promising to revive the American economy and champion the working class.

However, his speech also contained divisive language that legitimized mistrust towards media and political elites, raising concerns about the health of American democracy. This polarising approach raises important questions as political scientist Robert Putnam argues, that increasing social fragmentation and declining civic engagement are detrimental to democratic norms. Trump’s speech, while energizing for his base, risks exacerbating these issues by fostering an “us versus them” mentality that threatens the possibility of bipartisan cooperation.

Furthermore, Trump’s emphasis on economic policy was evident in his address. He promised to revive the American economy, focusing on job creation and support for American workers. By invoking the struggles of the working class, he positioned himself as their champion, despite criticism regarding his administration’s actual economic policies during his first term. This populist rhetoric is consistent with the broader right-wing populist movements seen across the globe, where leaders often exploit economic anxieties to bolster their support. As America continues to grapple with its identity and values, the rhetoric of leaders like Trump will undoubtedly shape the future of American democracy and its role on the global stage.

The second Trump presidency also brings significant implications for US-China relations, which were previously marked by confrontational policies during his first term, including trade wars, accusations of intellectual property theft, and geopolitical maneuvering and military posturing in the South China Sea. The potential continuations and escalations of protectionist trade measures, such as increased tariffs and sanctions on critical sectors, could deepen trade tensions and disrupt global economic stability.

The possibility of the complexities of Trump’s presidency leading to intensified conflict and a challenging environment for US-China relations, with significant repercussions for the international order in the 21st century cannot be ruled out. Trump administration will likely exacerbate geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Taiwan, as his confrontational stance could provoke reactions from China, endangering regional stability. Domestically, Trump’s populist base perceives China as a primary adversary, complicating any future administration’s ability to pursue a more conciliatory approach. Additionally, Trump’s skepticism towards multilateral institutions will weaken frameworks traditionally used to manage US-China relations, favoring bilateral agreements instead.

US-China tensions are expected to escalate under Trump’s second term, with heightened trade wars and regional instability.

One of the most immediate implications of a second Trump presidency would be the continuation and possibly the escalation of protectionist trade policies. During his first term, Trump implemented tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese goods, arguing that such measures were necessary to rectify the trade imbalance and protect American jobs. This approach, characterized by aggressive rhetoric and unilateral action, fundamentally shifted the nature of US-China economic engagement. In his second term with a more convincing majority, it is plausible to expect a further entrenchment of these policies. A second term will witness the introduction of additional tariffs or even sanctions targeting specific sectors, such as technology or manufacturing, which Trump perceives as critical to national interests.

An escalation of trade tensions would not only impact bilateral trade flows but could also have ripple effects throughout the global economy. As both nations are integral players in the international economic system, a protracted trade war could disrupt supply chains, increase prices for consumers, and lead to economic uncertainty globally. The coalition-building strategy with allies to counter China’s influence pursued by the previous US government could be undermined by a more isolationist and unilateral stance from Trump. This could lead to a fracturing of the international consensus on how to engage with China, particularly on issues such as human rights, environmental standards, and economic practices.

Additionally, the second Trump presidency raises questions about the future of multilateral institutions and alliances. Trump’s first term was characterized by a skepticism towards international agreements and organizations, often viewing them as constraints on American sovereignty. This continued approach could lead to a further weakening of multilateral frameworks The World Trade Organization (WTO), had faced challenges during Trump’s presidency, with the United States blocking appointments to the appellate body, effectively crippling its dispute resolution mechanism.

The second Trump term has already seen Trump withdraw from the climate change agreements and WHO. This prioritization of bilateral agreements over multilateral cooperation could complicate efforts to address shared challenges such as climate change, global health crises, and nuclear proliferation.

The implications of Trump’s policy initiatives for Pakistan are complex and multifaceted, reflecting the intricate nature of US-Pakistan relations, regional security dynamics, and the overarching geopolitical landscape. From the potential for reduced economic aid and military cooperation to the exacerbation of tensions with India and the challenges posed by the Taliban’s resurgence, Pakistan faces a difficult situation.

Pakistan faces reduced economic aid and military cooperation under Trump’s transactional foreign policy, complicating its strategic calculus.

Additionally, the shifting geopolitical dynamics with China and Russia could compel Pakistan to recalibrate its foreign policy strategies in response to the evolving international landscape. As such, Pakistan must prepare for a potentially tumultuous period, marked by increased isolation, security challenges, and the need for strategic reorientation.

Trump’s first term was characterized by a transactional approach to foreign policy, which often sidelined traditional diplomatic norms. His administration’s focus on “America First” led to a recalibration of alliances, with Pakistan finding itself at a crossroads. The suspension of military aid and the cessation of training programs for Pakistani military personnel in 2018 were indicative of the deteriorating relations.

The strategic interests of the United States in South Asia further exacerbate the already fragile security dynamics in the region. With the United States aiming to counter China’s growing influence, Pakistan’s strategic partnership with China has become a significant concern for US policymakers. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has further entrenched this relationship, leading to a potential realignment of alliances in South Asia.

The imposition of tariffs and trade restrictions under the “America First” policy has already impacted Pakistan’s exports to the US, particularly in the textile sector, which is crucial for the Pakistani economy. In a second term, Trump may continue to pursue protectionist measures that could further limit Pakistan’s access to the US market. Additionally, the lack of engagement with Pakistan in the context of trade agreements could hinder economic growth and development prospects.

The potential for an increase in military spending in the Indo-Pacific region as a counter to China may also divert US resources away from Pakistan. This could result in a reduced focus on economic aid and development programs that have historically been a part of US assistance to Pakistan. Consequently, Pakistan may find itself increasingly isolated economically, necessitating a reliance on alternative partnerships, primarily with China and regional players.

The global economic order risks disruption as Trump’s isolationist policies undermine multilateral frameworks and deepen geopolitical divides.

Moreover, the US’s focus on counter-terrorism may result in increased pressure on Pakistan to take more decisive action against militant groups. This could lead to internal conflicts and a potential backlash from elements within Pakistan that may resist external interference in domestic affairs. The socio-political ramifications of such pressures could destabilize the already fragile political landscape in Pakistan.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.