‘Today, the sky has cleared, with no cloud in sight. The weather is cold, but our hearts are warm for you’.

These words were showered upon Prime Minister Narendra Modi by Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, raising many eyebrows in the chilly valley.

PM Modi recently visited Kashmir to inaugurate the strategic Z-Mahur Tunnel. This gesture brought a smile to Modi’s face, perhaps reminding him of the time he placed Omar under house arrest, similar to the treatment of other separatist leaders.

That marked the first time in seventy years of independent history that both mainstream and separatist leadership faced the same fate, evoking the words of Alama Iqbal:

 “Ek hi saf me khadhey hogaye Mahmood-o-Ayaz,

na koi bandar raha aur na koi banda Nawaz.”

To recall, Omar Abdullah was arrested along with two former chief ministers on the night of August 4-5, 2019. They were imprisoned in a guest house, and a few weeks later, a viral photo of Omar with a long beard surfaced. At that time, there was no internet access, and Kashmir was under a lockdown to prevent potential protests or social media posts. Nonetheless, the image was circulated outside Kashmir to showcase the power of the BJP government. This situation was not just humiliating for Omar Abdullah, but it also instilled fear and terror among the people of the region.

Following his release, Omar appeared visibly disappointed and frustrated. He indicated his intention to retire from politics and vowed never to contest elections in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir again. His opposition to Modi intensified as he labelled his Kashmir policy as anti-people and stirred public sentiments with anti-BJP speeches during the election campaign. His supporters saw him as different and expected him to demand the political rights that successive governments had taken away under various pretexts. Modi’s abrogation of Article 370 and re-organising the state into two union territories was the final blow to those rights.

The abrogation of Article 370 was the final blow to political autonomy in Jammu and Kashmir.

Eventually, his father, Farooq Abdullah, coaxed him into traditional politics, reminiscent of how Sheikh Abdullah advised his son to remain within a system that had imprisoned him for over a decade. Perhaps they sensed that the current political framework in Jammu and Kashmir was inescapable or that the family could not survive outside the political arena for even a moment. This system is now evolving into its fourth generation, as evidenced by the involvement of Omar Abdullah’s two sons in recent events.

The parliamentary elections did not favor Omar Abdullah; he faced a significant defeat. However, he returned during the assembly elections, where his party won by a substantial majority. Several factors contributed to this success: no other political party had a similar cadre, structure, and voter base as the National Conference (NC), and the anti-BJP sentiment consolidated votes in their favour, particularly against the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which had allied with the BJP in 2014. Many voters supported restoring Article 370, a prominent point in the NC’s election manifesto.

Those who had previously doubted the viability of Indian electoral democracy cast their votes for the National Conference (NC) this time, including individuals who adhered to separatist ideologies. Faced with limited options, they chose to vote for political autonomy, a promise repeatedly made at every election rally by Omar Abdullah’s party.

After the government was formed, the NC appeared to be in a state of shock, failing to voice any protest against the BJP’s anti-Kashmir policies or the humiliation inflicted upon the population. The region was under siege for many weeks following the August 5, 2019, decision to abrogate Art 370. While the NC seemed to forget or forgive the BJP, the people were left struggling to express their emotions after five years of stringent curbs on freedom of expression.

Is this silence a strategic decision by the party, or is there potential coordination with the BJP behind the scenes? Some analysts argue that the National Conference has consistently pursued a single strategy since its inception: to maintain control over political power and prevent other parties from claiming political space. The public continues to trust them, repeatedly reaching out in support.

The National Conference’s silence on BJP policies erodes public trust in the region.

Other factors may also contribute to this unexpected closeness between the two parties, such as their mutual desire to influence the national landscape in exchange for statehood.

It is believed that the BJP has sought assistance from the National Conference to create a rift within the opposition alliance led by the Congress. This is evident from Omar Abdullah’s request for Congress to refrain from questioning election voting machines. This led to Rahul Gandhi criticising Abdullah’s apparent reversal after Abdullah praised the Prime Minister in a speech. In return, Abdullah may have been promised statehood and an extended power tenure, as Kashmiri journalist Azhar Hussain Tantray suggested.

Modi’s BJP aims to maintain its grip on power until 2047 when India will celebrate its centenary of independence. This arrangement seems to ensure that the NC will retain a firm hold on power for as long as Modi governs India.

A prominent member of the People’s Conference, Muhammad Subhan Butt, remarked, “The party that sought votes to punish the BJP and protect the Muslim-majority region has eroded trust among the people by labelling other political parties as the BJP’s A or B team. Now, it appears to be reciting odes to the BJP and normalising the decision to erode the internal autonomy of Jammu and Kashmir. This policy was adopted by the PDP in 2014 when it begged for votes against the BJP, only to align with the same party, which led to its downfall.”

Opposition parties contend that there is an internal understanding between the National Conference and the BJP. They assert that the NC will limit its demands to the restoration of statehood only, steering clear of discussions regarding the restoration of internal autonomy in the future. So far, the NC has not mentioned Article 370 during its three months in government.

Sheikh Ashiq, a prominent leader of the Awami Etihad party, which is led by imprisoned MP Engineer Rashid, claims that the National Conference (NC) has exploited this nation for seventy years, maintaining family politics with the backing of the central government. He asserts that this time, the NC will have to answer for its actions, which have severely damaged the dignity of Kashmiris to the point where they now cannot even speak openly.

Kashmiris question Omar Abdullah’s leadership and the NC’s promises as hopes for restoring autonomy fade.

Following praise for Prime Minister Modi, NC leaders have remained silent about public anger, possibly advising party workers to avoid social media. However, the people, particularly their voters, harshly criticise Omar Abdullah and his party on social media platforms, demanding that he either fulfil his promises or resign from the government.

The political turbulence that Kashmiris have endured is primarily attributed to this political party, which has historically divided the people along different ideologies by advocating for accession to India in 1947. In the 1970s, after the Indira-Abdullah Accord, people expected Sheikh Abdullah to reclaim the internal sovereignty guaranteed by the Indian Constitution. Instead, he accepted the post of Chief Minister from the Prime Minister, effectively legitimising and dismantling the edifice of internal autonomy. This pattern repeats today as the state has been reduced to a union territory, and Omar has accepted the Chief Minister’s position under compromised circumstances.

During the tenure of former Prime Ministers Bakshi Ghulam Muhammad and Ghulam Muhammad Sadiq, while Sheikh Abdullah was imprisoned, numerous Indian laws were imposed on the state. There was hope that Sheikh Abdullah would challenge these laws upon release, but he prioritised the Chief Minister’s post.

This decision made the public question why Sheikh Abdullah endured fourteen years in jail if he would ultimately accept the violation of the state’s special status without any resistance. Despite this, many population segments supported the National Conference and voted for it in almost every election.

Social worker and pro-freedom Irfan Mir states that “this party has been repeatedly accused of rigging elections, often in collaboration with the previous Indian government. The NC has consistently nurtured policies that suppress the freedom movement, which has allowed the BJP to implement a new strategy for maintaining control over the region with the party’s assistance.”

Political turbulence in Kashmir stems from decades of perceived exploitation by the National Conference and collaboration with central authorities.

People in Jammu and Kashmir had placed considerable hopes in the elected government. However, the region’s diminished status, the BJP’s hybrid governance system, and the NC’s timid approach are negatively impacting everyone, regardless of religion, ideology, or sub-regional affiliations. Unfortunately, Modi’s smile has not built public trust but has heightened their apprehension.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.