The conflict between Hamas and Israel has been ongoing for years, with sporadic bouts of violence and tensions. However, the ongoing escalation has raised grave concerns that it could spiral into a larger regional conflict.

The assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran has further complicated the situation, as it is believed to be a retaliatory act by Israel. This has heightened tensions between Iran, a major supporter of Hamas, and Israel, which sees Iran as a regional threat.

The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Iran represents a seismic shift in the dynamics of the Hamas-Israel war.

The Middle East is already a volatile region with various ongoing conflicts and proxy wars, and this recent development has the potential to ignite a larger-scale regional conflict involving other countries and factions.

The international community is closely watching the situation and urging both sides to exercise restraint and engage in peaceful dialogue to prevent further escalation.

The volatile mix of local grievances, international alliances, and historical tensions is threatening to engulf the entire region, raising fears of a broader war involving multiple states and non-state actors.

The current conflict between Hamas and Israel erupted in response to heightened tensions over Jerusalem and the West Bank, followed by Hamas launching a surprise barrage of rocket attacks against Israeli cities.

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) retaliated with widespread airstrikes targeting Hamas strongholds in Gaza, leading to intense urban warfare and a devastating humanitarian crisis. The war has claimed thousands of lives, primarily among Palestinian civilians, and led to the destruction of vital infrastructure, hospitals, and schools in Gaza.

Iran’s strong backing of Hamas, through military and financial support, has been a crucial factor in extending the conflict.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia condemned Israel on Tuesday for targeting a makeshift displacement camp in Mawasi, Gaza. The Saudi Foreign Ministry issued a statement, describing the attack as “another violent assault on unarmed civilians by the Israeli war machine.”

The Kingdom firmly rejected what it referred to as ongoing “Israeli genocide” and urged an immediate ceasefire.

Saudi Arabia held Israeli forces fully responsible for violating international and humanitarian laws, emphasizing the global community’s legal, humanitarian, and moral duty to enforce accountability and halt Israel’s violations. The Kingdom called for activating international mechanisms to end these breaches of international law.

The strike, which hit a crowded tent camp in Gaza early Tuesday, left at least 19 people dead and 60 others wounded, according to Palestinian officials. The attack took place in Mawasi, an area designated by Israel as a humanitarian zone, sheltering displaced civilians from the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, which has now entered its second year.

As the conflict enters its most intense phase, the risk of it spilling beyond Israel’s borders is increasing. In southern Lebanon, Hezbollah—an Iranian-backed militant group—has exchanged fire with Israeli forces. At the same time, pro-Iranian militias in Iraq have vowed to join the fight if Hamas faces defeat. The involvement of these groups could open new fronts in the war, threatening to destabilize Lebanon and Iraq, both of which are already facing internal political crises.

Iran’s strong backing of Hamas, through military and financial support, has been a crucial factor in extending the conflict. Tehran sees Hamas as a key proxy in its wider strategy to challenge Israeli hegemony in the region and project its influence across the Middle East. As the war continues, Tehran’s involvement is likely to deepen, increasing the potential for confrontations between Israel and Iran.

Saudi Arabia condemned Israel on Tuesday for targeting a makeshift displacement camp in Mawasi, Gaza.

The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Iran represents a seismic shift in the dynamics of the Hamas-Israel war. Haniyeh, a key figure in Hamas’s political and military strategy, was instrumental in forging strong ties with Tehran. His assassination is widely believed to be a covert operation, possibly conducted by Israel or a foreign intelligence agency, though no party has officially claimed responsibility.

Haniyeh’s killing has sent shockwaves throughout the region. In Gaza, Hamas leaders have vowed revenge, while Iran has condemned the assassination, labeling it an attack on its sovereignty. The loss of Haniyeh is a significant blow to Hamas’s leadership structure, but his death may also galvanize further support for the group’s cause. Iranian-backed militias across the Middle East are reportedly preparing for potential retaliation, targeting Israeli interests in the region.

If Iran retaliates directly or through its proxies in Lebanon, Syria, or Iraq, the conflict could escalate into a full-scale regional war. Hezbollah, already engaged in sporadic skirmishes with Israel along the southern Lebanon border, could launch a sustained offensive, dragging Israel into a multi-front war. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have hinted at a strong response, which could include missile attacks or cyber operations against Israeli or U.S. targets in the region.

The assassination of Haniyeh in Iran not only threatens to escalate the Hamas-Israel conflict but also risks triggering a broader regional war. The Middle East is a delicate geopolitical chessboard where even minor provocations can have far-reaching consequences. A major concern is the role of Iran’s network of allied militias.

In Iraq, groups such as Kata’ib Hezbollah have already signaled their willingness to engage in the fight against Israel. The Houthis in Yemen, who have regularly targeted Saudi Arabia with missile strikes, could also join the conflict, attacking Israeli or US assets in the region. These militias form a web of Iranian influence stretching from Lebanon to Iraq and Yemen, all of which could become battlefields if the situation spirals out of control.

The involvement of Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed militant group, could open new fronts in the war, threatening to destabilize Lebanon and Iraq.

The global ramifications of a broader conflict in the Middle East are profound. A war that involves Iran, Israel, and their respective allies would have a catastrophic impact on global energy supplies, as the region is home to some of the world’s largest oil reserves. An escalation in violence could disrupt oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, sending global energy prices skyrocketing and potentially triggering an economic crisis. Moreover, the conflict could exacerbate the refugee crisis in the region, with millions more displaced, straining neighboring countries and prompting international humanitarian responses.

International actors are scrambling to prevent the conflict from expanding. The United States, which has long been an ally of Israel, is urging restraint while simultaneously preparing to bolster Israel’s defense capabilities. Washington has warned Iran against any direct military action, but its leverage over Tehran is limited given the strained relations and recent withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal.

Russia and China, which have cultivated relationships with Iran, are calling for de-escalation while seeking to protect their interests in the region. Moscow, which maintains military bases in Syria and has vested interests in keeping the Assad regime in power, is particularly concerned about how an expanded war could jeopardize its foothold in the region.

The United Nations and European Union have issued urgent calls for a ceasefire, stressing the need for diplomatic solutions to the conflict. However, the deeply entrenched animosities between Israel, Hamas, and Iran, coupled with the broader geopolitical rivalries, make a diplomatic resolution seem increasingly unlikely in the short term.

The combination of the ongoing Hamas-Israel war, the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, and the involvement of regional powers has created a powder keg in the Middle East. The region is now on the cusp of a much larger conflict that could redraw alliances, shift power dynamics, and create widespread instability.

A war that involves Iran, Israel, and their respective allies would have a catastrophic impact on global energy supplies.

As Iran considers its response and Israel prepares for potential multi-front battles, the world watches anxiously, knowing that the consequences of a full-scale regional war would be devastating not only for the Middle East but for global stability as well.

In Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, there is growing apprehension about the possibility of a wider war.

Riyadh is in the midst of sensitive negotiations to normalize relations with Israel, an unprecedented diplomatic move that the escalating conflict could derail.

Saudi and Emirati leaders are now calling for restraint, wary of being dragged into a conflict that could destabilize the entire Arabian Peninsula.